徐晓虎，陈 圻

(南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院，江苏 南京 210016)

智库发展历程及前景展望

徐晓虎，陈 圻

(南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院，江苏 南京 210016)

现代智库发展时间较短，关于智库的研究工作尚处于初级阶段，尚未形成一致的研究范式。本文对智库的发展过程及智库研究工作进行了简要综述，进而提出一系列创新观点:一、智库是指一种专门为公共政策和公共决策服务，开展公共政策和公共决策研究和咨询的社会组织。二、现代智库虽然来自于西方世界，但是类似智库的智囊组织在两千年前的古代中国早已出现。三、智库作为信息革命和知识经济时代产生的崭新社会组织。四、智库在全球范围内将实现较快发展。五、智库将在中国实现迅速增长。六、官方智库公信力的明显提升和民间智库的迅猛发展，将是中国今后一段时期智库发展的主要特征。最后，提出了加快民间智库发展、加强智库人才队伍建设等建议。

智库;公共政策;知识经济;信息革命

Abstract:Modern think tanks developed in a short time，the research work of think tank is currently in the primary stage，the unity paradigm doesn't appear now.The paper summarizes the development process and the research work of think tanks，and puts forward a series of new viewpoints:Think tank is a special form of social organization which serves the needs of public policy and decision，carries out research and advisory services to meet government's demand;Although modern think tanks arised in western countries，the original think tanks emergenced in ancient China two thousand years ago;Think tanks produce ideas and policies using information and knowledge as raw materials;Think tanks all over the world will develop faster in the process of political democratization;Think tanks of China will develop more faster during the course to become the world's leading economic power;The promotion of the public trust of official think tanks and rapidly expanding of nongovernmental think tanks，will be the distinctive characteristics of Chinese think tanks'development in the future.At last，the paper proposes some suggestions such as promoting the development of private think tank and accelerating corresponding talents squad construction.

Key words:Think tank;Public policy;Knowledge economy;Information revolution

1 智库概念和起源

智库是什么?它何时出现?智库能发挥什么作用?这三个问题，一直没有学界公认的标准答案。

1.1 什么是智库

如何对智库进行定义，这是长期困扰智库研究领域专家学者的一个根本问题。美国智库研究专家詹姆斯·麦肯认为:世界各国的领导人都需要智库学者为其提供独立分析，帮助确定政策议程，构筑知识与行动间的桥梁［1］。加拿大智库研究专家唐纳德·E·埃布尔森提出:智库一般都是专注于公共政策研究的非营利性、无党派组织［2］。……