侯光良,鄂崇毅,肖景义,何青梅

1)青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院,青海西宁 810008;

2)青藏高原资源与环境教育部重点实验室,青海西宁 810008

重建古气温的环境证据-方法差异性分析

侯光良1,2),鄂崇毅1,2),肖景义1,2),何青梅1)

1)青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院,青海西宁 810008;

2)青藏高原资源与环境教育部重点实验室,青海西宁 810008

重建过去气温是 PAGES关注的焦点之一,由于环境证据类型与重建的方法不同,重建的古气温记录存在一定差异。环境证据类型中孢粉、植物硅酸体、综合证据、氧同位素、冰川-冰缘重建同一时段、同一地点的气温依次降低,孢粉与植物硅酸体指示的气温最为接近,综合证据与氧同位素较接近;这说明孢粉重建的气温数值偏高,冰川-冰缘证据偏低,它们分别主要指示了植物生长季节和冬半年或冷期的气温;而综合证据与氧同位素则可能比较接近实际气温。按照重建方法,转换函数法重建的全新世气温记录普遍高于自然地理因子指示法,而自然地理因子指示法重建的温度记录变化幅度更大(尤其是冷事件),说明因子指示法重建的气温记录对于百年尺度的极端事件记录更为灵敏。

重建;古气温;环境证据;方法

过去气温变化是过去全球变化(PAGES)关注的焦点之一(PAGES,2009),重建过去万年-千百年时段的气温变化,有助于评估现在全球变暖的走向与趋势(Jamsen et al.,2007);但是由于受器测记录的限制,较长时段的气温变化只能通过环境证据来间接指示(孙青等,2010;魏乐军等,2002;张美良等,2009;郑绵平等,1998)。由于环境证据类型不同,重建方法不同,导致重建气温结果存在一定差异,因此对不同环境证据类型、不同重建方法产生的重建气温数值差异应科学认识,最终服务于准确的古气温重建。

1 数据来源及其类型

1.1 数据的来源

本文从国内外公开发表的246篇各类文献中搜集中国全新世古气温记录,尤以 20世纪 80年代以来发表在各类期刊上的文献为主。

选定古气温记录须同时具备以下两个条件:其一有定量的气温数据,这些定量的气温数据以年均气温或年均温距平(年均温与现代年均温差)等形式表达,按照是否连续分为序列气温数据和散点气温数据,序列气温数据是指古气温记录在文献中是以序列的形式出现,散点气温是指文献中全新世某个时间点的气温数值。其二有明确的年代数据,以14C年或日历年时间体系定量表达,时间分辨率要达到百年尺度。本文中将所有的14C年数据采用CALIB4.0程序转换为日历年,故本文中年代数据均为日历年。

现代气温数据来源于中国 160个气象基准站1951—2005年的逐月平均气温器测资料(http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/)。

1.2 古气温数据的类型

从 45条古气温序列上经过数字化等步骤提取1271条全新世定量气温记录(蔡永立等,2001;范斌等,2006;顾明光等,2006;Ge et al.,2003;Jiang et al.,2006;李文漪,1985,1998;李平日等,1991;毛龙江等,2005;庞奖励等,2005;Pflaumann et al.,1999;乔玉楼等,1996;施雅风等,1992;沈才明等,1992;史威等,2008;宋长青等,1997;孙建中等,1998;童国榜等,1991,1997;唐领余等,1993,1996,2004;覃嘉铭,1997;吴乃琴等,1994;王永吉等,1983;王绍武等,2002;Wang et al.,1990;许清海等,2003,2004;徐国昌等,1997;姚祖驹等,1991;余克服等,2001;杨志荣,1998;张子斌等,1981;张兰生等,1992,1997;郑洪汉等,1996;周廷儒等,1982;朱诚等,2008;中国科学院贵阳地球化学研究所第四纪孢粉组、14C组,1977),从文献中引用了126条散点气温(记录和参考文献省略)。

这些古气温记录从环境证据类型来看,包括孢粉、植物硅酸体、植物化石、珊瑚礁、泥炭、地球化学、氧同位素、冰川冰缘地貌、石笋、烯酮、古土壤、海滩岩、化学矿物、考古、历史文献和综合证据(表1)。这些证据指示的气温分辨率基本在百年左右,其中孢粉记录最多,占全部记录的68.4%,其次为氧同位素,占记录的8.7%,第三为综合证据占记录的7.9%,石笋占 4.2%,其它记录较少,只占全部记录的10%强。从古气温记录的重建方法来看,分为转换函数法(孢粉转换函数、植物硅酸体转换函数、磁化率转换函数和氧同位素转换函数等,简称转换法)和自然地理因子指示法(冰川冰缘地貌、植物化石和海滩岩等,简称因子法),转换法是指利用环境感应体与现代气候要素之间的统计关系,来推算古气温的一种数学方法;因子法则是利用自然地理环境中的对气温变化具有定量指示意义的环境要素推断当时的气温。本文中序列气温多为转换法得到,而散点气温记录多使用因子法。

图1 古气温记录的类型及其分布Fig.1 Types and distribution of ancient temperature records

表1 证据类型及使用古气温数统计Table 1 Statistics of evidence types and number of ancient temperatures used

2 古气温记录的转换

重建气温序列,需要将分散在全国各地区的古气温数值转换为全国尺度,这样才可以相互比较。转换方法如下:

(1)全国气温分区:利用中国现代 160个气象基准站的1951—2005年的器测资料,采用聚类分析和EOF相结合的方法,综合考虑气温变化趋势和变化过程,把全国分为8个气温变化分区,依次为东北区、华北北部区、中东部区、东南区、陕甘宁区、川黔桂区、新疆区、滇藏高原区。

(2)全国、分区年均气温变化序列与30年滑动平均序列:先计算1951—2005年全国各分区的年均气温、30年滑动气温序列,再利用面积加权的方法求取中国年均气温、30年滑动气温序列。

(3)站点、分区与全国平均气温的函数关系:站点是指分布在距离古气温记录地点最近的气象站点。结果表明:全国绝大部分站点30年滑动平均序列和全国30年滑动平均序列相关系数高达0.95以上;同时,30年滑动序列建立的回归方程的方差解释量大多都超过了 0.90,其残差标准差较逐年序列要小一个数量级。因此转换中使用30年滑动平均序列的统计关系。

(4)单样本区域订正:利用前述得到的站点与全国平均气温的函数关系,将古气温记录转换为全国尺度,即把古气温值都转换为与现代全国气温距平值。这样使来自不同地区的古气温可以直接比较。

3 不同方法-证据重建的中国全新世百年分辨率气温序列

由于证据类型不同、方法不同,得到的古气温结果存在显著的差异,现就对不同方法和感应体类型,重建的全新世古气温记录进行对比分析。将整理的古气温记录,以日历年为时间坐标系,以公元1950年(1900—1999 AD)为起点,以100年为时间间隔,以 1900—1999 AD 年记为0 aBP,1800—1899 AD为标记为100 aBP,依次类推,建立相应的全新世古气温数据集,并对同时段的古气温记录按照方法(转换法、因子法)和环境证据类型(孢粉、植物硅酸体、氧同位素、植物证据和综合证据)进行平均,分别得到方法、不同证据类型的气温序列。

3.1 不同方法重建的气温序列

图2 不同方法重建的气温序列Fig.2 Temperature series reconstructed by temperature records of different methods

重建气温记录的方法可以分为转换法和因子法,由前述步骤得到转换气温序列和因子气温序列。根据图2:转换序列数据较充足,是连续序列,而因子序列不连续。从重建的两条序列来看,二者表现出大体一致的气温变化趋势,即中全新世气温相对较高,而早晚全新世相对较低。但在同一时段转换法重建的气温值几乎都高于因子指示,少数时段除外。另外,转换序列在全新世期间距平气温变化幅度为−2～3℃,而因子序列变化幅度为−4～3℃;因子法气温记录变化幅度较转换法为大,且因子法指示冷期较转换更冷。产生这一差异的主要原因是因子法一般可以较好的记录到气温变化的极端值,故因子法对于极端气温指示更为敏感。

3.2 不同类型重建的气温序列

按照环境证据不同,可以建立孢粉、氧同位素(长链烯酮)、植物硅酸体、植物证据、冰川证据和综合证据序列(图3),另有一些环境证据类型气温记录过少,难以进行讨论。从图3可见:孢粉序列数据较多,是一条连续序列;其它序列均不完整,相对来说,氧同位素序列、综合证据序列数据较多,而植物硅酸体、植物证据、冰川证据数据较少。此外,为更清晰的探讨不同证据类型重建气温的差异,分别做孢粉、植物硅酸体、综合证据和氧同位素序列同时段两两之间的重建气温差(图4),大体呈现以下规律:

(1)从五条证据类型气温序列来看,在整个全新世,重建的同时段气温记录孢粉＞植物硅酸体＞综合证据＞氧同位素＞冰川-冰缘。即孢粉记录的气温最高,其次为植物硅酸体,而氧同位素和冰川-冰缘气温值依次为次低、最低。

(2)孢粉序列分别与植物硅酸体、综合证据和氧同位素序列对比,在早、晚全新世差值为负值,而在中全新世为正值。即孢粉序列相对于植物硅酸体等三序列,在早晚全新世重建的气温要低,而在中全新世要高。说明孢粉序列重建的气温,有暖期更暖,冷期更冷的特点。

(3)从重建的气温记录差值和幅度来看(表2),孢粉记录与氧同位素记录在气温差值、温差幅度和气温方差都表现为相差最大,而与植物硅酸体记录相差较小,这也就意味着孢粉序列与氧同位素序列相差最大,与植物硅酸体序列最为接近,综合证据居中。同理,综合证据序列与氧同位素序列较为接近,与植物硅酸体则稍远。

图3 不同感应体类型重建的气温Fig.3 Temperatures reconstructed by different types of inductor

表2 不同感应体类型重建气温差统计指标Table 2 Statistical indices of difference between temperatures reconstructed by different types of Inductor

4 结果与讨论

古气温记录的重建有不同的方法和感应体类型,由于方法和感应体类型的不同,重建的古气温记录有显著的差异。从方法来看,转换法重建的全新世气温记录普遍高于因子法,而因子法重建的气温记录变化幅度更大(尤其是冷事件),说明因子法气温记录对于百年尺度的极端事件记录更为灵敏。重建古气温记录的环境证据类型主要包括孢粉、植物硅酸体、综合证据、氧同位素和冰川-冰缘证据;就全新世总体来看,重建的气温值从高至低排列顺序依次为:孢粉＞植物硅酸体＞综合证据＞氧同位素＞冰川-冰缘,孢粉序列与植物硅酸体序列最为接近,而与氧同位素序列相差最远,综合证据序列较接近氧同位素序列,与植物硅酸体则稍远。

这可能指示在古气温重建中,孢粉、植物硅酸体重建气温可能偏高;由于孢粉和植物硅酸体均属于植物证据,植物多生长于生长季节,对于寒冷冬季的信息难以捕捉,因此可能暗示植物证据重建的气温要偏高,指示的主要是生长季节的气温。冰川-冰缘、氧同位素证据指示的气温要偏低,尤其是冰川-冰缘证据,它应该指示极端冷期的气温;综合证据较孢粉、植物硅酸体要低,但比氧同位素、冰川-冰缘要高,说明综合证据相对较为适中,可能比较接近真实的气温值,这也说明采用不同证据类型的集成方法来重建古气温序列,具有单一证据类型和单一方法无法替代的优势,其重建结果应该有较高的准确性。

图4 不同环境证据类型重建气温之差Fig.4 Difference between temperatures reconstructed by different types of circumstantial evidence

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The Sensitivity Analysis of Reconstructing Ancient Temperatures by Different Circumstantial Evidence and Methods

HOU Guang-liang1,2),E Chong-yi1,2),XIAO Jing-yi1,2),HE Qing-mei1)
1)School of Life and Geographic Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining,Qinghai810008;
2)Key Laboratory of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Department of Resource and Environment Education,Xining,Qinghai810008

The reconstruction of ancient temperatures is one of the focuses to which PAGES pays close attention.Due to the difference between the type of circumstantial evidence and the method for reconstructing ancient temperatures,there exists certain differences between the records of reconstructing ancient temperatures.The temperatures from such types of circumstantial evidence as spore and pollen,phytolith,comprehensive evidence,oxygen isotope and glacier-periglacial decrease in turn at the same time and spot.The temperatures indicated by spore and pollen and phytolith are closest to each other,and those indicated by comprehensive evidence and oxygen isotope are relatively close to each other.These data suggest that the temperature numerical value reconstructed by spore and pollen is relatively high,and that of the evidence of glacier-periglacial is relatively low,which might mainly indicate the temperature of growing season of plants and that of half year of winter (cold period)respectively;by contrast,the comprehensive evidence and oxygen isotope temperature may be close to the actual temperature.According to the reconstruction method,the Holocene temperature record reconstructed by transfer function analysis is generally higher than that by the natural geographical factor indication method,while the variation range of the temperature record reconstructed by the natural geographical factor indication method is wider (especially the cold events),suggesting that the temperature record reconstructed by the factor indication method is more sensitive to the extreme event at the scale of one hundred years.

reconstruction;ancient temperature;circumstantial evidence;method

P92;P532;Q913.84;P597.2

A

10.3975/cagsb.2011.04.09

本文由青海师范大学科技创新项目(编号:10YJCZH041)资助。

2011-03-10;改回日期:2011-04-06。责任编辑:魏乐军。

侯光良,男,1972生。博士,副教授。主要从事环境演变与人类响应研究。通讯地址:810008,青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院。E-mail:hgl20@163.com。