黄丽华，王亚男，韩 笑

环境保护部环境发展中心，北京 100029

黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略土地资源承载力评价

黄丽华，王亚男，韩 笑

环境保护部环境发展中心，北京 100029

结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略土地资源影响特点，探索了战略环评土地资源承载力评价方法和思路.以土地资源优势、劣势、机会和威胁(SWOT)分析和主成分分析(PCA)为研究手段，构建了涵括土地资源生态属性、经济属性及社会属性的土地资源综合承载力评价指标体系，研究了重点产业战略实施前后土地资源综合承载力空间变化，深入剖析了重点产业发展战略的环境合理性.结果表明:黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业战略实施后，能源重化工产业重点布局、大规模发展区域综合土地资源承载力指数较现状降低10%以上，而非重点发展区域土地资源综合承载力有所提升，因此，重点产业发展中必须结合土地资源承载力现状，合理调整产业发展布局.

战略环评;土地资源;综合承载力;SWOT分析;主成分分析

Abstract:This paper researched the methods and principles of land resources carrying capacity assessment in strategic environmental assessment by considering the impact characteristics of applying the energy and heavy chem ical key industries development strategy to the upper and midd le reaches of the Yellow River.By applying SWOT and principal component analysis to land resources，this paper established an evaluation index system for land resources comprehensive carrying capacity which covers the ecological，economic and social attributes of land resources;investigated the spatial change of land resources comprehensive carrying capacity occurring after the enforcement of key industries development strategy;and，demonstrated the rationality of key industries development strategy in consideration of environmental conservation.The results indicated that after the enforcement of key industries development strategy in the energy and chemical industrial zones in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River，the composite index of land resources carrying capacity decreased by more than ten percent in major development areas of energy and heavy chemical industries，while it slightly increased in non－major areas.Therefore，industrial development layout should be adjusted and reasonably combined with existing land resources carrying capacity in the development of key industries.

Keywords:strategic environmental assessment;land resources;comprehensive carrying capacity;SWOT analysis;principal component analysis

传统土地资源承载力单纯以土地自然生态承 载力为评价内容，其主要指在一定生产条件和生活水平下，土地资源的生产能力及所承载人口的限度［1－4］.近年来，国内土地资源承载力评价已从土地自然生态承载力逐步向土地综合承载力深入［2，5－6］，研究领域涉及土地资源生产潜力评价［4］、土地生态适宜性评价［7－11］、土地资源经济评价［12－13］和土地资源可持续利……