Black Swans and Other Disasters

黑天鹅与其他灾难

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been all over the comments pages of the news since last September.The pugnacious Lebanese trader opposes market orthodoxies, and believes that most of current financial theory is based on stupid principles.He claims that most traders and bankers simply don't understand statistics and chance, and in his best-selling books The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, outlines why.

去年九月以来，纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布一直是新闻评论的焦点人物。这名好斗的黎巴嫩证券经纪人反对正统的市场学说，相信当今大多数金融理论都是建立在愚蠢的原理之上。他声称，大多数证券经纪人和银行家根本不懂统计学与随机性，他的畅销书《黑天鹅》与《随机致富的傻瓜》对此做出了解释。

'Black Swans,' as defined by Taleb, are unexpected events, ones that lie outside our normal expectations.He draws this example from the arguments of European naturalists that all swans were white - because all the swans they'd seen were - which was then overturned by the discovery of black swans in Australia.His point in the book is that these events should be expected - not the exact nature of the event, but that chaotic and unlikely events happen all the time, and so we should always be prepared for devastating financial and other catastrophes.

根据塔勒布的定义，“黑天鹅”是无法预期之事，在我们正常的预料之外。这个例子来自欧洲自然学家。以前欧洲的自然学家都坚持所有的天鹅都是白的，因为他们见过的所有天鹅都是如此，但当黑天鹅在澳大利亚被发现时，这一说法就被推翻。他书中的观点是，虽然我们无法得知事情的本质，但纷乱与不太可能发生的事总在发生，我们应该预见这些事情，并随时做好迎接毁灭性金融危机与其他灾难的准备。

Taleb also argues that we overrate individuals and institutions who often succeed by pure chance.His examples here are often weak when he steps outside the areas he knows; it's quite clear, for instance, that his understanding of publishing is shallow and misinformed.On areas he does know, however, he's very interesting.These are worthwhile books for anyone looking to understand the chaotic state of the world.

塔勒布还认为，我们过于抬举了常常仅靠运气成功的个人与组织。在其熟知的领域之外，他的例子就变得没什么说服力了。比如，很明显，他对出版的理解就是浅薄而无知的。但在其熟知的领域，他就变得非常有趣。如果您想了解当今纷乱复杂的世界，塔勒布的书还是很不错的。

Scary But Fun: The Graveyard Book

《墓园之书》：吓人但有趣

Neil Gaiman's new children's fantasy, The Graveyard Book, is a massive bestseller - when I tried to buy a copy in Hong Kong only a few weeks after the book was out, they were all sold out! Taking its inspiration from Kipling's children's classic The Jungle Book, about a boy raised by wolves in the Indian jungle, it tells the story of Nobody Owens, a young boy abandoned in a graveyard and raised by ghosts! It just won the Newberry Medal, the most prestigious prize for childrens literature.

尼尔•盖曼的儿童奇幻新作《墓园之书》非常畅销，该书出版后仅数周，我想在香港买一本，但已经卖完了！作者的灵感来自吉普林儿童经典《森林王子》（一本讲述一名男孩在印度丛林里被狼养大的书），书中一名叫诺柏迪•欧文斯的男孩被人遗弃在墓地，然后被幽灵抚养大！《墓园之书》刚刚荣获纽伯里奖，这是最知名的儿童文学奖项。

While written for intelligent kids, it can certainly be enjoyed by adults too. Its grim whimsy and charming illustrations make it a delightful read. Nobody is helped by an array of ghouls, goblins, and things that go bump in the night; his two chief tutors are a vampire and a werewolf. His family was brutally murdered by a vicious killer known only as 'Jack' - the equivalent of the menacing tiger Shere Khan in The Jungle Book - and he has to learn how to outwit and defeat Jack's efforts to kill him too. All this sounds rather disturbing for kids, but children eat up this kind of grisly fun, and the book has strong moral messages about friendship, trust, and cunning as well. Thoroughly recommended.

虽然它是写给聪明的孩子们的，但也适宜成人品读。书中充满奇思异想，画风优美，读起来饶有趣味。诺柏迪得到了一个个盗尸者、小妖怪和在晚上出没的东西的帮助，他的两个主要监护人是一个吸血鬼和一个狼人。他的家人惨遭恶人杀害，只知道凶手叫“杰克”，就如同《森里王子》里邪恶的老虎Shere Khan，他必须学着以智取胜，躲过“杰克”的谋杀。这些听起来是少儿不宜，但孩子们却乐此不疲地享受这种恐怖的趣味。该书也传达了强烈道德信息，关于友谊、信任与狡猾。很值得推荐。

Who Will Watch the Watchmen?

谁来守护守望者？

The most hotly anticipated movie of 2009, at least for a large segment of the movie-going public, is Zack Snyder's new superhero film Watchmen. Based on an acclaimed graphic novel by eccentric British genius Alan Moore and artist Dave Gibbons, rumours about its adaptation as a movie have been circling ever since its 1986 release in comic book form.

2009年最令人期待的电影，至少对许多影迷来说，是扎克•施奈德的超级英雄新片《守望者》。该片根据英国怪才阿伦•摩尔和画家达夫•吉布森创作的著名漫画小说改编而成，自1986年该系列漫画书问世以来，有关这部小说拍成电影的传闻一直层出不穷。

The original graphic novel details a world where history has been changed by the presence of costumed heroes who fight crime. Only one of them is truly a 'superhero' - the enigmatic Dr. Manhattan, a victim of a nuclear accident who can now perceive the workings of time and space, and has virtually unlimited power; the others are simply extremely skilled - and often mentally disturbed - men and women.Most have retired by the start of the book.

在原漫画小说中，历史因打击犯罪的化装英雄的出现而改变。其中只有一人是真正的“超级英雄”，即神秘的曼哈顿博士，他是一次核事故的受害者，能觉察到时空造化，拥有无穷无尽的本领；其他人只是技术高超的男男女女，但往往精神有问题。在本书开篇时，他们大都已退隐。

Watchmen's themes include security, war, love, and determinism. With a dense and intricate plot and superb use of both graphics and text, the novel is an absolute classic, and many fans are worried that the movie won't live up to their dreams. Early reviews of the film are mixed, with some praising it enthusiastically and others calling it cluttered and boring.We'll have to wait and see what moviegoers make of this epic – sales of the original book have already shot through the roof, though!With luck, the film will be worthy of its name.

《守望者》的主题包括安全、战争、爱情和决心。情节紧凑而复杂 ，文字与插画一流，小说绝对是经典，许多粉丝担心电影达不到他们的期望。早期对该电影的评价褒贬不一， 有人热情地赞扬它，有人说它杂乱而无聊。我们还得等等，看影迷如何评价这部史诗巨作，不过原书早已经大卖。运气好的话，这部电影还配得上这个名字。

Slumdog Triumph: the 2009 Oscars

2009年奥斯卡：“贫民窟”的胜利

Slumdog Millionaire, a romantic and brutal story about a young man rising to quiz show fame after an upbringing in the Mumbai slums, swept the board at the Oscars this month. With eight awards, including the two most coveted prizes of Best Director and Best Picture, it trounced all opposition. Slumdog Millionaire has been a clear favourite for the last two months after proving an instant hit with audiences.

《贫民窟的百万富翁》，一个浪漫而残忍的故事， 故事中一名自小在孟买贫民窟长大的青年因参加答题节目而声名大噪。该片在本月的奥斯卡颁奖典礼上大获全胜。它独领风骚，收获八项大奖，包括最令人垂涎的最佳导演奖和最佳影片奖。《贫民窟的百万富翁》一上线就博得广大影迷的好评，两个月来一直是夺奖大热门。

The results were generally predictable, with the only mild upset being Sean Penn's Best Actor win for Milk, where he plays a pioneering gay politician. Many critics had called 2008 a 'weak year', especially in contrast with 2007's crop of highly successful, but also critically acclaimed, movies such as No Country For Old Men. In contrast, this year the movies that made most critics' top ten lists, such as minimalist road movie Wendy and Lucy and Romanian abortion-drama 4 Months, 3 Weeks And 2 Days, received no nominations.

结果基本上与预期吻合，唯一一点例外是西恩•潘凭借《米尔克》获封最佳男主角，片中他饰演一名有开创精神的同性恋政治家。很多影评人称2008年为“疲软之年”，尤其是与2007年相比，因为2007年有多部票房成功、评价也高的电影，如《老无所依》。而在今年，最受影评人青睐的十大电影，如抽象的公路电影《温蒂和露西》和罗马尼亚关于堕胎的电影《四月三周两天》都未获得提名。

The awards ceremony itself was hosted by Hugh Jackman, who enthusiastically performed a wide range of musical numbers. Famous critic Roger Ebert praised it as 'The best Oscar night I've seen - and I've seen plenty' - but viewers didn't agree, making this one of the least watched Oscars ever, although numbers were still ahead of last year's pitiful viewing figures. It was a night without any great surprises - but who knows what the next year will bring in cinema?

颁奖典礼由休•杰克曼主持，他在现场又唱又跳。著名的影评人罗格•埃伯特称赞说，这是“我看过不少奥斯卡之夜，但这次是我见过最棒的。”但观众却并不领情，本次奥斯卡颁奖典礼是观众最少的一届之一， 不过观众仍比少得可怜的上一届要多。奥斯卡之夜没有大的惊奇，但谁知道明年电影院又会有什么呢？

Bob Dylan to Release 'Surprise' New Album in April

鲍勃•迪伦四月发行新专辑

Bob Dylan has announced a 'surprise' new album to be released this month. The as-yet untitled album will be Dylan's first studio release since 2006's Modern Times.

鲍勃•迪伦宣布，四月将发行“令人意想不到的”新专辑。专辑还没有名字，它将是迪伦自2006年的《摩登时代》之后的第一张录音室唱片。

The album comes just a few months after Tell Tale Signs, a compilation of outtakes, and was itself inspired by a one-off tune for filmmaker Olivier Dahan. The director of La Vie En Rose asked Dylan to write a song for My Own Love Song, his upcoming movie starring Renée Zellweger. The result was Life Is Hard, a bleak, mandolin-stung ballad. But Dylan didn't stop there – he kept writing and recording with his road band, putting ten new originals to tape.

精选集《讲述传说的符号》推出才几个月，鲍勃在为导演奥利维埃•达昂创作电影原声时受到启发，决定创作新专辑。达昂曾执导《玫瑰人生》，他请迪伦为其下一部电影《我自己的情歌》写一首歌，该电影由芮妮•齐薇格主演。迪伦写了《生活不易》，一首悲伤的民谣。但迪伦并没有就此停止，他继续和自己的巡演乐队创作并录音，为新专辑收录了10首新歌。

As always, Dylan served as his own producer, working under the pseudonym Jack Frost. The album is filled with 'raw-country love songs, sly wordplay' and a 'seductive border-cafe feel', according to Rolling Stone. Accordion features on every track, thanks to Los Lobos' David Hidalgo.

跟往常一样，迪伦自己担当制作人，化名为杰克•福斯特。《滚石》杂志表示，专辑里都是“纯正爱情民谣，巧妙的文字游戏”，给人以“在国界边的咖啡馆里喝咖啡的诱人感觉”。 每一首歌都有合唱团灰狼一族大卫•希达格的手风琴配乐。

Besides struggling with love on songs like This Dream Of You and Beyond Here Lies Nothin', Dylan also addresses the dismal state of the world economy.

除了在《你的梦想》和《只能在此撒谎》等歌曲里与爱抗争，迪伦还将在专辑里论及世界经济的惨状。

Roommates – Just a Warmed Up Friends?

《新同居时代》——《老友记》的翻版？

Roommates, a new show on major American channel ABC, follows a group of friends in New York City trying to figure out love and life in their post-collegiate years. Loveable but awkward Mark stumbles upon his dream come true when he runs into his old high-school crush, Katie, and becomes her new roommate in an attempt to finally win her heart. Unfortunately for Mark, Katie is still in love with her on-again/off-again boyfriend. Further complicating matters, Mark doesn't hit it off with Katies best friend and roommate, Hope, a strong willed executive who Mark learns, unbeknownst to her fellow roommates, has lost her job and now secretly works at a coffee shop. The fourth and final apartment mate is James, who works in the investment world and takes great pleasure in watching Mark's feeble attempts to win Katie's favor. Rounding out the group is Mark's former roommate and best friend, Thom, a quirky guy who takes an instant liking to Hope.

《新同居时代》，美国广播公司的新剧，讲述的是纽约市一群年青朋友在大学毕业后试图参透爱情和生活真谛的故事。可爱而笨拙的马克偶遇到自己高中时喜欢的凯蒂后感觉自己梦想成真，为赢得佳人芳心，他跟凯蒂住在了一起。很不幸，凯蒂仍爱着她的男朋友，虽然二人总是分分合合。马克跟凯蒂的好朋友兼室友霍普合不来，这令事情更加复杂。霍普是一个性子直的经理，马克得知她已失业，瞒着室友在一家咖啡店打工。第四个人，即最后一名室友是詹姆斯，他在投资银行工作，很喜欢看马克徒劳地向凯蒂献殷勤。打圆场的是马克的前室友，也是他最好的朋友索恩，索恩性格乖僻，但很快就喜欢上了霍普。

Based on the promos for the show, the series looks like any other formulaic sitcom - it's an almost carbon copy of the setup for the original Friends - but it could be worth checking out.Networks long for this kind of 20-something demographic hit, like the current How I Met Your Mother, but they're fatally dependent on the chemistry between the cast and the talent of the writers. This doesn't look like anything special, but who knows?

根据预告片，该剧跟其他俗套的情景喜剧差别不大，几乎是《老友记》的翻版，但值得看看。电视台喜欢放这种一集20分钟的热播剧，如现在的《老爸老妈的浪漫史》，但他们严重依赖演员间的默契和编剧的才华。这部戏看起来并不特别，但谁又知道呢？