菲尔·爱德华兹　李小雪

History is filled with examples of new inventions that supporters thought would be transformational—and then turned out to be minor fads. And these failures show how hard it is for inventors to anticipate society’s needs. It’s tough to predict what will change the world， because it’s tough to predict how the world will change.

Daylight motion pictures： “Witness the shows sitting in a fully lighted auditorium”

Imagine going to a movie theater where the entire auditorium is completely lit. Back in the 1910s， some people thought this was the future of film.

When movie theaters opened in the early 1900s， many people disliked the darkly lit auditoriums. In Minneapolis， one theater owner said he preferred full lighting “to look after the wants of women and children” and to avoid “eye fatigue.”

The idea caught on quickly and “daylight motion pictures” became a trend across the country. They worked through a combination of stronger projectors， darker screens， and wishful thinking. From New York， to Utah， to San Francisco， daylight projection brought relief from the “agitation” of dark movie theaters. Lobbying helped， too—in California， the statehouse passed a bill requiring theaters to be sufficiently lit so that patrons could see the features of other moviegoers.

But bright movie houses didn’t stick around for long. From the beginning， movie projectionists complained that well-lit movie theaters lacked the quality picture found in a dark theater. It didn’t help that the daylit pictures technology pushed by Samuel Rothafel and others were based more on hocus pocus than real innovation （Rothafel credited “a chemical substance found in the Dry Tortugas”）. Eventually， women and children felt safe in the movie theater， eye fatigue was overcome， and movies went dark for good.

Electrified water： “For the morning after... a sure cure for headaches”

In the early 1900s， “electrified water” was considered the next big thing. The idea was that people would run a charge through water and then—after they stopped—the liquid would acquire all sorts of wondrous new qualities.

As early as 1904， people pitched electrified water as a way of sterilizing and cleaning clothes without soap. A 1913 ad boasted that this “wonderful new invention applies electricity in a new way.” Electrified water was also in vogue for drinking and sprinkling on plants. In the 1920s， one physician suggested dipping your hands in electrified water to cure your hangover.

Electrified water wasn’t dangerous （the charge usually stopped before people came in contact with it）. But it also proved ineffective—it doesn’t work to wash your clothes without soap， and， for most practical circumstances， electrified water didn’t sterilize much at all.

The Fiske Reading Machine： “To render obsolete printing presses”

Rear Admiral Bradley Fiske was a celebrity inventor with many inventions and accomplishments to his name， like adding telescopic sights to ship guns. That might be why people thought the Fiske Reading Machine， invented in 1922， would be the next big thing in literature.

The basic idea was that books would be printed onto small pages in really tiny letters， and readers would hold modified magnifying glasses up to their eyes to read. As inconvenient as it sounds， Scientific American ran a piece listing all the advantages that Fiske machines would supposedly have over old-fashioned books：

Cheaper manufacturing

Better quality paper could be used and books would last longer

Less paper needed

Easy to send by mail （and cheap！）

More free space in your house

Smaller presses could be used

Everything could be cheaper because everything was easier to do

No more eye-glasses and spectacles

Poor people could finally afford to learn！

The invention got attention far and wide， from the New York Times to literary digests， and Popular Mechanics trumpeted tests that showed Fiske’s reader didn’t affect reading speed.

In the end， Fiske’s reading machine never took off. Mass-market paperbacks grew in the 1930s and 1940s， possibly negating one of the reading machine’s key advantages. Realistically， however， people probably just didn’t want to hold a magnifying glass up to their eyes for hours at a time.

The submarine tube： “Fish will play out before the human eye”

The submarine tube， invented by Charles Williamson in the 1910s， was once thought to be the future of underwater photography. The idea was simple： put a sphere underwater and connect it to the surface using a large waterproof tube.

Williamson originally wanted to use the device to find treasure and pearls underwater. Later， the device was touted as a way to see the ocean like never before. Submarine tube footage appeared in 20，000 Leagues Under the Sea， sketch artists used it to make amazing new drawings of undersea life， and one submarine tuber caught an epic picture of a diver right before he killed a shark.

But as wonderful as the submarine tube was， it didn’t end up being the future of undersea exploration. The advent of small， waterproof cameras in the 1940s made it more practical to send a diver down to capture ocean life instead of an entire tube. Jacques Cousteau’s work on SCUBA and underwater photography advanced the technology even further. With better options available， submarine tubes became a historical quirk.

The Helio-Motor： “Are steam and electricity doomed？”

Invented by Dr. William Calver in the 1900， the Helio-Motor was inspired by an age-old desire to recreate the legend of Archimedes’ heat ray—when the scientist supposedly lit a ship on fire using mirrors to concentrate sunlight.

Calver believed he had “solved the use of the sun’s rays” by concentrating sunlight using mirrors. In his Helio-Motor， flat mirrors moved according to the sun’s position in the sky， and then stored reflected heat in bricks or water. The goal was to heat the world and generate enough power to replace electricity. Commentators believed Calver’s Helio-Motor was “Archimedes’ Dream Realized，” and rich investors lined up to help the effort. Leland Stanford， founder of the university that bears his name， told Calver， “The steam engine made a great revolution and this will make another.”

Of course， the Helio-Motor didn’t become the next big thing in electricity because it was too hard to convert and store all that energy. Even if it worked well， it wasn’t better than the existing sources like coal.

But the Helio-Motor may not be dead yet. Thanks to more efficient ways for using that reflected heat， the Helio-Motor sounds a lot like modern-day concentrated solar power. It’s entirely possible that Calver’s invention could go from potentially world-changing， to unwanted device， to world-changing again. Part of the fun is figuring out what else might do the same.

新发明被支持者认定会带来变革，结果却只是引发了小小风潮。这类例子在历史上比比皆是。这些失败的案例表明，于发明者而言，预测社会需求是多么难。预测什么东西会改变世界是困难的，因为预测世界将如何改变本就是困难的。

日光电影：坐在亮如白昼的观众席里观看演出

想象一下，去往一个观众席被完全照亮的电影院。在1910年代，有人认为这就是电影的未来。

20世纪初电影院问世之际，许多人不喜欢里面光线昏暗的观众席。明尼阿波利斯市一位电影院老板就曾说，他更喜欢完全照明，“可以照顾妇女和儿童的需求”和避免“眼睛疲劳”。

这个想法快速风靡，“日光电影”的浪潮席卷全美。这种电影之所以成气候，靠的是功能更强的投影仪、更晦暗的荧幕，以及人们的一厢情愿。从纽约到犹他再到旧金山，日光投影缓解了昏暗影院带给人们的“焦躁不安”。此外，游说也立了功。在加利福尼亚，州议会通过了一项法案，要求電影院必须足够明亮，以便顾客可以看清其他观影人员的容貌。

但是明亮影院并没有流行很久。从一开始，电影放映员就抱怨这里不具备昏暗影院的高质画面。更何况，由塞缪尔·罗瑟费尔和其他人推行的日光电影技术并不是基于真正的创新，不过是一种噱头（罗瑟费尔把它归功于“在干龟岛发现的一种化学物质”）。最终，妇女和儿童坐在电影院有了安全感，人们克服了视觉疲劳，电影就一直在昏暗中放映了。

电化水：早晨之后……头痛之灵药

20世纪初，“电化水”被视为下一个流行物。其理念是：人们将水通电，然后断电，这样水会获得诸多奇妙的新性能。

早在1904年，电化水就被宣传成了一种可以不用肥皂清洁消毒衣物的水。1913年的一则广告鼓吹说这一“奇妙新发明以新的方式用电”。当时也很时兴饮用电化水和用它喷洒植物。1920年代，一位医生建议人们把手浸入电化水来治愈宿醉。

电化水没有危险（在人们触碰它之前电流就停止了）。但是它也并无效用——不能代替肥皂洗干净衣服，而且在大多数现实情况下，它也不能杀菌消毒。

菲斯克阅读机：让印刷机落伍

海军少将布拉德利·菲斯克是一位著名发明家，名下有众多发明和成就，比如给舰炮加上望远式瞄准镜。也许正因如此，当时的人们认为1922年发明的费斯克阅读机将会在印刷出版中大行其道。

菲斯克阅读机的基本构想是，将极小的字母印刷在小开本书籍上，而读者会手持改进版放大镜并推至眼前阅读。虽然听起来很不方便，可《科学美国人》登了一篇文章，罗列出所谓的菲斯克阅读机超越老式书本的所有优势：

造价更低

纸张质量更好，书籍保存更久

用纸更少

易于邮寄（且邮费低！）

家里腾出更多空间

印刷机更小

一切更容易，则一切更便宜

省得戴眼镜

穷人终于学得起了！

这项发明声名远播。从《纽约时报》到各类文学文摘，再到《大众机械》，这些媒体大肆宣扬说，试验表明菲斯克阅读机不会影响阅读速度。

结果，菲斯克阅读机根本没有流行起来。大众简装书在1930—1940年代数量增加，这也许否定了阅读机的一项关键优势。然而实际上，人们可能压根就不想每次举着放大镜读书，一读就是几个小时。

潜水管：鱼儿嬉戏在眼前

潜水管由查尔斯·威廉森在1910年代发明，曾一度被视为水下摄影的未来。构想倒也简单：把一个球体置于水下，再用一根大防水管道将它与水面连接。

威廉森起初想用这个装置寻找水下的宝藏和珍珠。后来，它就被吹捧成了一种前所未有的观海仪器。电影《海底两万里》中出現过潜水管的片段，素描画家利用它画出了新奇美妙的海底生物图，而且其中一根潜水管还捕捉到了惊心动魄般的场景：一名潜水员正要手刃鲨鱼。

潜水管虽然绝妙，却并未撑起海底探险的未来。1940年代，小型防水相机问世了，这样一来，整根潜水管便不堪使用了，派潜水员下水捕捉海洋生物画面反而更为实用。雅克·库斯托在水肺潜水和水下摄影方面的工作进一步推动了技术的发展。随着更好的选择出现，潜水管就沦为了一桩历史奇闻。

太阳发动机：蒸汽与电力注定消亡？

太阳发动机由威廉·卡尔弗博士于1900年发明，其灵感来自阿基米德的“热射线”传说。据说阿基米德用多面镜子聚集太阳光，将一艘船点燃。长久以来，人们都渴望能再现这个传说。

卡尔弗认为他用镜子汇聚阳光，“解决了太阳光线利用问题”。在他的太阳发动机里，平面镜根据太阳在天空中的位置移动，然后把反射的热量储存在砖块或水中，其目标是为世界供热，产生足够的能量替换电力。评论者认为卡尔弗的太阳发动机“圆了阿基米德梦想”，而且富有的投资者争相助力。斯坦福大学的创始人利兰·斯坦福对卡尔弗说：“蒸汽机掀起了一场伟大革命，而太阳发动机将引发另一场伟大变革。”

当然，太阳发动机并没有成为电力行业的下一核心技术，因为实在很难转化和储存全部太阳能。即便行得通，它也并不比煤炭这样的现有能源优越。

但是太阳发动机可能还未走向末路。幸亏有了更高效的利用反射热能的种种办法，太阳发动机听起来很像现代的聚光太阳能热发电技术。卡尔弗的发明虽然从有望变革世界跌落至无人问津，但它完全可能再次成为引发世界变革的技术。有没有其他的发明也能翻盘？弄清楚这个问题会带来不少乐趣。

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖选手）