□ 文/本刊记者 黎敏

Written by Li Min / Translated by Xu Zhiliang

进口受限 出口受阻中国林产品国际贸易路在何方

□ 文/本刊记者 黎敏

2016年12月2日，本刊记者从2016中国—东盟博览会林木展系列活动——第六届中国（南宁）林产品国际贸易论坛上了解到，中国林产品国际贸易在不断发展的同时，正经历着进口受限、出口受阻的发展阵痛，“转型升级”成为诸多业内人士的共识。

进出不畅的贸易困局

从建材到家具，从竹藤到纸张，人们对这些林产品再熟悉不过，但是中国因为森林资源匮乏，所以许多林产品都是“进口货”，中国林产品市场对进口产品的依存度也因此居高不下。原木、纸产品、纸浆、单板和锯材是中国进口林产品的主要门类，而相关的进口贸易我们不难在中国与东盟国家的贸易中找到。

森林资源相对丰富的东盟国家一直都是中国林产品进口的重要来源地之一。数据显示，2015年中国—东盟的林业贸易额达到了318亿美元，其中中国从东盟各国的进口额达到200亿美元。印尼、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、泰国、越南等都是中国非常重要的林产品贸易伙伴。但这种依赖进口的情况随着“木材出口禁令潮”的掀起正面临挑战。截至目前，柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、泰国、越南等中国在东盟的主要林产品贸易伙伴都颁布了木材出口禁令，这直接导致了木材，特别是原木价格的暴涨，进而影响到林产品国际贸易企业的原料进口、成本管理及产品出口环节。

“在2015年中国1400亿美元的林产品进出口贸易额中，林产品进口额为647亿美元，出口则为753亿美元。”据中国林业局林产品国际贸易研究中心副主任陈勇介绍，中国的林产品国际贸易除了占据近半壁江山的进口，林产品出口也体量庞大。

过去，中国出口的林产品主要以经济林产品等为主，在林产品工业发展的过程中，家具、纸、纸板等高附加值产品的出口量也有所增加。但出口的目的地仍然集中在亚洲、北美洲和欧洲，以日本、美国为代表的发达国家。高度集中的贸易输出，为贸易摩擦埋下了隐患。

陈勇副主任说：“国际林产品贸易愈发注重环境保护，合法性贸易法规逐渐成为发达国家限制发展中国家贸易的手段，中国已经成为一些国家实施贸易保护主义的首要对象。”例如森林认证、产销监管链认证，意味着林产品贸易从原木、加工到流通等各个生产环节都需要“有据可查”，但东盟国家等中国林产品主要的进口来源地，对于森林资源管理的法律与机制尚待健全，溯源难度大，无形中增加了中国出口产品认证的复杂性。

而受经济危机影响，“逆全球化”升温，导致国际上显性或隐性的“绿色贸易壁垒”有增无减。除此之外，中国国内劳动力成本、环境成本的增加，部分林产品产能的富余，也使得中国林产品国际贸易难以再按原来的方式发展。北京林业大学经济管理学院教授程宝栋认为，在这样的背景之下，中国的林业产业需要转型升级。

2016年第六届中国（南宁）林产品国际贸易论坛

从“腾笼换鸟”到“凤凰涅槃”

无论是为了应对日趋复杂的国际贸易形势，还是解决国内成本与产能的问题，中国林业产业转型升级的紧迫性与必要性已然成为业内共识。那么转型升级该从哪儿破局呢？

令人欣喜的是，我们在市直单位连续五年时间“每年打造10家示范典型”的建家活动初见成效，涌现出市煤管局、市供销社、市建设局、市职技院、市一中、市住房公积金管理中心等富有鲜明特色的示范单位。

“中国的林产品眼下主要还是出口欧美发达国家，但未来中美之间的贸易摩擦可能会进一步上升，这部分传统市场不再被看好。不过，我们可以将目光转向‘一带一路’沿线的新兴市场。”程宝栋教授说，“中国倡导的‘一带一路’，沿线涉及65个国家和地区，东盟是其中一个重要的方向，随着TPP（跨太平洋伙伴关系协定）的停滞，RCEP（区域全面经济伙伴关系）、中国—东盟自贸区升级版将为中国—东盟包括林产品贸易在内的双边贸易带来利好。”

“一带一路”沿线多数国家的经济发展水平还相对落后，有发展劳动密集型产业的优势，而这也给中国与其开展产能合作提供了空间。据悉，中国正计划在东盟具备条件的国家开展森林资源开发利用合作，转移和利用国内木材加工、林业机械制造等优质产能，建成一批集森林资源采伐、加工、贸易与物流于一体的境外木材加工园区，在实现企业资源优化配置的同时，为当地带去技术与就业机会。

“为了可持续地推动中国和缅甸的林业合作，我们正在与缅甸政府协商，计划在缅甸建立（林业）境外合作区，并签署相关合作协议，以规范双方林产品加工贸易等。”陈勇副主任在接受本刊记者采访时说，“随着‘一带一路’建设的稳步推进，中国—东盟的林产品贸易有许多机遇点，但这需要政府、企业、协会间加强联系与交流，已连续举办6届的中国—东盟博览会林木展，就是中国—东盟林业界交流沟通的一个很好的平台。”

“东盟国家是‘一带一路’上比较成熟的新兴市场，市场潜力大，东盟国家的消费者对于木文化也比较推崇，因此无论是国际贸易出口，还是开展国际产能合作、到当地投资设厂，企业选择东盟国家，成功的可能性都更大。” 程宝栋教授在接受本刊记者采访时说，“中国林产品企业‘走出去’，进行产业转移，就像‘腾笼换鸟’，但这并不意味着中国就不发展林木产业了，而是要在技术研发、在品牌升级上下功夫，这就是我们说的‘凤凰涅槃’，将‘大进大出’转变为‘优进优出’。但是品牌的建设并不是一蹴而就的，往往中国企业打造一个闻名于世的品牌并不容易，因此我们可以鼓励中国企业去并购发达国家的品牌，这也是品牌升级的一种选择。”

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The Way Out for Chinese Forest Products Stuck in the Dilemma of Import & Export Trade

Written by Li Min / Translated by Xu Zhiliang

China is a major country involved in the international trade in forest products, the total import-export volume of which increased from US$ 100 billion in 2010 to US$ 140 billion in 2015, growing at 7.5 percent annually, according to the statistics.

The 6thForest Products International Trade Forum, under CAEXPO Forest & Wood Products Exhibition 2016, was successfully held in Nanning on December 2, 2016, when experts and practitioners suggested that it is imperative to speed up the transformation and upgrading of international trade in forest products.

Impeded import & export trade

Over the years, most forest products in China are imported from the overseas markets like ASEAN countries, ranging from building materials to furniture and from bamboo & rattan to paper, due to the lack of forest resources. Now China is mainly importing log, paper products, paper pulp, veneer and converted timber from foreign countries.

ASEAN countries relatively abundant in forest resources remain a major source of China’s imported forest products. It is reported that the trade volume of China-ASEAN totaled US$ 31.8 billion in 2015, including US$ 20 billion produced by China’s import from ASEAN countries.

However, China’s major forest product trading partners in the ASEAN region, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, have issued their respective timber export bans successively, leading to the rising price of timber, particularly the price of log, and adversely affecting the main links of enterprises specializing in forest products, such as raw-material import, cost management and product export.

“In 2015, the import & export trade volume of China in terms of forest products totaled US$ 140 billion: the total import was US$ 64.7 billion, and the total export US$ 75.3 billion,” said Mr. Chen Yong, deputy director of the Forest Product International Trade Research Center which is affiliated to the State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China.

In the past, China mainly imported forest products dominated by the economic forest, and the export volume of high value-added products needed like furniture, paper and paperboard was on the increase. Mr. Chen said, “As environmental protection becomes a major issue of international trade involving forest product, legitimate trade regulations will be utilized by developed countries to impose limits on the trade of developing countries. And China has become the primary target of trade protectionism implemented by some countries.”

In addition, due to the increase of labor cost and environmental cost in China’s domestic market and the excess production capacity of some forest products, it is urgent to transform and upgrade the outdated development modes in terms of forest product trade.

International cooperation and self-improvement

Analysts noted that China’s forest products are still mainly exported to Europe and America; however, we feel pessimistic about part of such traditional exportdestinations. With the China-led Belt and Road Initiative being implemented, we could focus on the emerging markets surrounding the Belt and Road, among which ASEAN could be one of China’s major trading partners in the f eld of forest product trade.

China is set to cooperate with some ASEAN countries in terms of the development and utilization of forest resources; meanwhile, overseas wood processing parks featured by felling, processing, trade and logistics would be established by transferring and utilizing China’s high-quality production capacity like wood processing and forestry machinery manufacturing. By doing so, not only can the allocation of Chinese forestry enterprises be optimized, but also more employment opportunities and advanced technologies can be brought to the local areas. For instance, to continue strengthening the forestry cooperation between China and Myanmar, China is negotiating with Myanmar on the establishment of an overseas cooperation zone in the local area, hoping that cooperation agreements would be signed to set standards for bilateral processing trade of forest products.

ASEAN countries are the emerging markets with relatively mature conditions along the Belt and Road, with enormous market potential, and local consumers show great interest in wood culture; therefore, with a priority placed on ASEAN countries, Chinese enterprises concerned are more likely to be successful in not only trade of forest products but also production capacity cooperation and investment.

Most forest products in China are imported from the overseas markets like ASEAN countries, ranging from building materials to furniture and from bamboo & rattan to paper.

As a matter of fact, encouraging Chinese enterprises specializing in forest products does not mean that the development of China’s forestry can be ignored; instead, we should give high priority to technology research and development, as well as brand upgrading.