Hassan M.El Shaer

Desert Research Center,Mataria,Cairo,Egypt

1 Introduction

The Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region is a diverse region as it includes some of the world's largest reserves of oil and fossil gas,but it is poor in water resources and arable land.The gross domestic product(GDP)per capita(PPP)ranges from USD$2,500 in Yemen to a high of more than USD$41,800 in the United Arab Emirates(CIA,2013).There are large income disparities in the region,with many people living in poverty(less than USD$2 per day).It is characterized by high population growth,degraded and fragile natural ecosystems,and a limited amount of arable lands.It is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world,in which renewable water resources are nearly fully exploited and non-renewable water resources are being rapidly depleted(AFED,2008).The region is struggling to cope with current climatic conditions,and the longer-term impacts associated with climate change will pose additional stresses and new challenges(AFED,2008,2009;Wingqvist,2010).The MENA region is particularly vulnerable to climate change given its already scarce water resources,high levels of aridity,and its long coastal stretch threatened by rising sea levels.Recent changes in climate patterns,such as prolonged droughts,record temperatures,and increased rainfall irregularity,intensity and distribution,have all further negatively impacted the natural and agro-ecosystems in the region.The region is mostly arid and semi-arid and is dominated by grasslands,rangelands,deserts,and some woodlands.Land degradation problems and limited water supplies constrain present agricultural productivity and threaten the food security of some countries(AFED,2009).Agriculture plays an important role in the economies of most of MENA countries.Serious desertification has been threatening ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development in the region.

This article focuses on the impact of land desertification due to climate changes on the prevailing natural resources,and discusses several approaches for mitigating or alleviating desertification to improve the livelihoods of local people,particularly those who live in marginal areas of the MENA region.

2 MENA characteristics and climate

2.1 Characteristics

The MENA region encompasses 22 countries in the Middle East and North Africa.It is located in southwestern Asia and northern Africa.The term refers collectively to the Asian countries of Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Palestine(the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip and West Bank),Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,Syria,Turkey,the United Arab Emirates,Yemen,and the North African countries of Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Morocco,and Tunisia(CIA,2013).The MENA region accounts for approximately 6% of the world's population,60% of the world's oil reserves,and 45% of the world's natural gas reserves.Due to the region's substantial petroleum and natural gas reserves,MENA is an important source of global economic stability(World Bank,2007).The region is heterogeneous in terms of the countries' economies.MENA countries vary greatly in gross national product(GNP),and they include relatively resource-rich,oil-exporting countries and several poorer countries.The region is economically diverse and includes both the oil-rich economies in the Gulf and countries that are resource-scarce in relation to population,such as Egypt,Morocco,and Yemen.In general,according to the CIA'sWorld Factbook(CIA,2013),in 2012 the region's GDP was USD$1.490 trillion,the total population was 345.4 million,and the gross national income(GNI)per capita was USD$3,452;60% of the population was urban in that year.

Because it includes some of the richest and some of the poorest countries in the world,the MENA regional average economic performance statistics are misleading(World Bank,2007).Industry and services contribute 82% of the GDP,and agriculture accounts for the remainder(CIA,2013).The region's economic fortunes over much of the past quarter-century have been heavily influenced by two factors:the price of oil and the legacy of economic policies and structures that have emphasized a leading role for the state.

2.2 Regional climate

The average monthly mean daily temperatures in the MENA region range from-10 °C to 25 °C in January to 20 °C to >35 °C in July.The rainfall in the region is low but highly variable.Average monthly rainfall ranges from 0 mm to 200 mm in January and from 0 mm to 500 mm in July.Climate models project that temperatures in the region will increase by 1–2 °C by 2030–2050,with the greatest increases in winter in the northeast and in summer in part of the southwest(IPCC,2007;AFED,2009).Precipitation is projected to increase slightly in the winter throughout the region,and in the summer to remain the same in the northeast and increase in the southwest(i.e.,the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula).These precipitation projections vary from model to model and are unlikely to be significant(IPCC,2007).Because of projected increases in temperatures,higher evaporation is expected.Soil moisture is projected to decrease in most parts of the region,which may lead to increased areas of soil degradation(AFED,2009).The region is mostly semi-arid and arid,with significant areas of extreme aridity(ICARDA,1997).All areas experience wide fluctuations in rainfall,and their native plants and animals are adapted to coping with sequences of extreme climatic conditions.In many of these ecological systems,the initial climatic changes are unlikely to create conditions significantly outside the present range of variation;thus,impacts from climate change may not be apparent for several decades.

The impact of climate change may be greater in the semi-arid areas of the region than in the arid areas.Agriculture,natural grasslands,livestock,and water resources in marginal areas are most likely to be vulnerable to climate change(Wingqvist,2010).

3 Climate change and MENA desertification

Desertification refers to the degradation of natural resources in an ecosystem,such as soil,water,vegetation,and wildlife.Desertification should also be seen as a major environmental security threat for the MENA region due to its many negative features,which degrade biological productivity and provoke famine and malnutrition and,consequently,social unrest.ICARDA(1997)reported that in the Arab region desertification phenomenon affects 976 million hectares,representing 68% of the total region,in addition to threatening 287 million hectares or 20% of the total area.The size of the threatened or desertified areas varies from one country to another.In fact,degradation of drylands affects some 70% of land in the Arab region.Approximately 48.6% of the land area in the Mashreq(Egypt,Lebanon,Palestine,Jordan,and Syria),28.6% in the Nile Valley and the Horn of Africa,16.5% in North Africa,and 9% in the Arabian Peninsula is endangered on account of desertification.Among the MENA countries,Libya,Egypt,and Jordan are facing the greatest dangers,while in the Arabian Peninsula,Bahrain,Kuwait,Qatar,and the UAE are the most affected countries(ICARDA,1997;Wingqvist,2010).

The causes of desertification are mainly attributable to climate aridification,overgrazing,woodcutting,dry farming of dry lands,and spreading of urbanization.These lead to decreased vegetation cover,land degradation and erosion,and sand dune shifts.Other causes of desertification,such as incorrect farming practices(plowing,irrigation,fertilization,pest control,etc.),lead to pollution,increased salinity or alkalinity of water and soil,and decreases in biodiversity.Desertification also has a negative effect on productivity and the environment,in addition to the socioeconomic aspects,and increases poverty.According to the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP,2009),desertification is threatening about one-fifth of the MENA region.These areas are further challenged by extreme temperatures,frequent drought,land degradation,and desertification.The full extent of land degradation in the region is not known,although an estimated 10% of the arid and semi-arid land is classified as having some soil constraints.Future erosion risk is more likely to be influenced by increases in population density,intensive cultivation of marginal lands,and the use of resource-based and subsistence farming techniques than by changes in climate(ICARDA,1997;IPCC,2007).

Globally,climate change is widely believed to intensify desertification.This will have serious implications worldwide for socioeconomic stability,biodiversity,and sustainable development,particularly for the people in drylands and semi-arid areas;the impact of climate change on them,livestock,and the environment can be devastating(AFED,2009).Global climate changes,as well as human interventions,influence the rate at which desertification occurs or is averted.The drylands and semi-arid areas in the MENA region are characterized by the poor quality of water resources and intense solar radiation(IPCC,2007;Wingqvist,2010).

There is no doubt that desertification is an important environmental problem in the region that urgently needs to be addressed,and that climate change will have environmental and economic repercussions.The major input factors that act as key drivers for the regional environmental change include recurrent drought,land degradation,depletion of natural resources,variable population growth,increased temperature,decline in precipitation,scarcity of water for potable consumption and irrigation,and progressive soil erosion and salinization(Wingqvist,2010).Continuing land degradation has severe environmental,economic,and social implications that could negatively affect the socioeconomic and political stability of the region.

However,because of the arid nature of the region,some sectors or resources will be particularly affected by desertification and climate change.The impacts on these resources and some methods for eliminating such impacts are briefly summarized as follows.

3.1 Water resources

Water shortages are already a problem in many countries of this predominantly arid region due to the great impact of climate changes(AFED,2009;SIWI,2009).Projected precipitation increases are small,and temperatures and evaporation are expected to increase.Rapid development is threatening some water supplies through salinization and pollution,and expanding populations are increasing the demand for water.The Arab Forum for Environment and Development(AFED,2008)stated that adaptation strategies might include more efficient organization of water supply,treatment,and delivery systems for urban areas,particularly in arid areas,and increased use of groundwater.Wingqvist(2010)reported that measures to conserve or reuse water have already been implemented in some countries in the region;such strategies may overcome some shortages,especially if they are adopted widely throughout the region.Changes in cropping practices and improved irrigation practices could reduce water use significantly in some countries(UN ESCWA,2006;SIWI,2009).Since water availability is the main determinant of productivity,the use of reduced tillage and improved mulching to increase available water and reduce surface erosion can promote increased soil carbon.It has also been noted that in areas where cropping and livestock are closely integrated,more-efficient use of manure and commercial fertilizer can increase productivity and soil carbon(Wingqvist,2010).In temperate parts of the region,eliminating or reducing summer fallow through better water management in non-irrigated areas could significantly increase soil carbon and decrease soil erosion in semi-arid croplands,as reported in many studies(e.g.,UN ESCWA,2006;IPCC,2007;SIWI,2009).

3.2 Ecological systems

The MENA region is mostly arid and semi-arid and is dominated by grasslands,rangelands,deserts,and some woodlands.Under climate change projections,vegetation models cause little change in most arid(or desert)vegetation types.The impacts may be greater in the semi-arid lands of the region than in the arid lands,especially in the distribution and composition of vegetation types.The expected small increase in precipitation is unlikely to improve land conditions in the next century,partly because soil conditions take a long time to improve and partly because human pressure on these systems may contribute to land degradation(Rubio and Recatala,2006).

Grasslands,livestock,and water resources are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change in this region(UNEP,1997)because they are located mostly in marginal areas.Many countries are centers of origin for crop and fruit tree species of critical importance to world food production;thus,they are important sources of genes of wild relatives(IPCC,2007).Because of the current marginality of soil-water and nutrient reserves,some ecosystems in semi-arid regions may be among the first to show the effects of climate change.

Only a few studies have assessed the impact of climate change on biodiversity in the region(AFED,2009).Current human activity,however,is causing a loss of biodiversity.Forests/woodlands are important resources,although they cover only a small area.The region has a large area dominated by mountains;sizable mountainous areas are under pressure from human use(i.e.,timber collection,overgrazing,mining,etc.)which is leading to land degradation in some areas.

According to recent reports by AFED(2009),UNDP(2009),and UNEP(1997),these ecosystems and biodiversity are under extreme pressure and are being lost in the region because of development activities,human activities(especially overgrazing and deforestation,leading to loss of plant cover and consequent land degradation),current climatic conditions(e.g.,high temperatures and prolonged droughts),marine pollution,overfishing and overhunting,and the overuse of most natural resources,particularly fresh water,which affects the plants and animals of oases and wetlands.

Management options,such as better stock management and more integrated agro-ecosystems,could improve land conditions and counteract pressures arising from climate change(Dregne,1997).Furthermore,improved water-use efficiency by some plants under elevated CO2may lead to some improvement in plant productivity and changes in ecosystem composition,as concluded by SIWI(2009).

It is important to mention that few studies are available to assess the impact of climate change on the biodiversity of the region(ICARDA,1997;UN ESCWA,2006).Moreover,there is a general lack of detailed and coordinated information on biodiversity and environment in the region,resulting in temporal and spatial gaps and a lack of quality control in the available information.Most of the available information is on vertebrates,with emphasis on birds and mammals.Some countries of the Middle East are rectifying information gaps by setting up database networks(Dregne,1997).In addition,the Middle Eastern countries have set up joint programs to protect biodiversity across political boundaries and to carry out biodiversity inventories.

3.3 Animal production

There is no doubt that desertification and climate changes have great negative impacts on livestock production,since animal productivity is influenced by many environmental factors.Huge areas of rangelands,as the principal source of feedstuffs,have been affected by climate changes(El Shaer,2010;FAO,2010).Animal productivity and husbandry are also affected by the fluctuations in daily temperature,wind,solar radiation,rain,and humidity.Some of the most important approaches to reduce such impacts in order to increase animal production are as follows.

3.3.1 Grazing control and carrying capacity control

In many of the arid and semi-arid areas in the MENA region,the predominant land use is pastoral.Natural rangelands and cultivated fodders represent the major feed resources for livestock(El Shaer,1999,2010).Grazing control is an important option for the maintenance of soil carbon and increasing rangeland yields and quality.Reduction in animal numbers can increase carbon storage by enhancing plant cover.This practice can have a positive effect on the ecosystem if there is sufficient rainfall,but reductions in animal numbers on rangelands may require alternative sources of food for humans,and thus changes in national or regional food production policies.El Shaer(1996)reported that it is important to control the number of grazing animals according to the conditions of pastures and rangelands in order to apply the optimal carrying capacity ratio.The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO,2010)recommended that plant introduction plots be established in various climatic zones of the MENA region;that additional drought-and salt-tolerant fodder species be collected and evaluated;that agriculture residues be utilized as feed materials;and that proper livestock management practices be applied.

3.3.2 Changing animal distribution

Changing animal distribution through salt placement,development of water sources,or fencing can lead to the more balanced use of pastures and,consequently,to increases in overall plant cover,improved status of root systems(as a consequence of less-intense grazing),and increased carbon sequestration(El Shaer,1996;Haddadet al.,1997).Moreover,appropriate animal-management practices should be specific to local and regional production systems.

3.4 Food and fiber

Land degradation and other environmental problems can seriously affect food and fiber production(FAO,2010).Desertification and land degradation are major problems that are caused by natural factors(e.g.,prolonged droughts)and by human activities,particularly overgrazing,uncontrolled cultivation,excessive fuelwood collection,inappropriate use of irrigation,uncontrolled urbanization,and tourism development(Kharin,1998;IPCC,2007).Urbanization and related activities(e.g.,road construction)have resulted in losses of permanent pasture and increases in the agricultural use of marginal lands,leading to further degradation(FAO,2010).Dryland salinity and waterlogging,especially in low-lying countries in the Middle East,are also contributing to land degradation(Kharin,1998).Land degradation problems and limited water supplies constrain present agricultural productivity and threaten the food security of some countries,as reported by FAO(2010).Though there are few projections of the impacts of climate change on food and fiber production for the region,studies in some countries have suggested some negative impacts on wheat yields;ironically,there are also some projected yield increases(e.g.,winter wheat).Many of the options available for combating existing problems will contribute to reducing the anticipated impacts of climate change.Food and fiber production concentrated on more-intensively managed lands could lead to greater reliability in food production and reduce the detrimental impacts of extreme climatic events,such as drought,on rangeland systems(IPCC,2007;UNEP,1997).Implementation of more-flexible risk-management strategies(e.g.,long-term and appropriate stocking rates,responding to variations in precipitation by changing animal numbers annually),along with the use of a wider variety of domestic animals,game ranching,and multiple production systems,would provide greater food security to the region(Rubio and Recatala,2006).

3.5 Human health and socioeconomic effects

Human health in the region is variable,reflecting the economies of the diverse countries.Some countries,where poverty is high,have high infant mortality rates and low life expectancies(FAO,2010).The impacts of climate change are likely to be detrimental to the health of the population,mainly through heat stress and possible increases in water-borne and vector-borne diseases(e.g.,dengue fever and malaria).Decreases in water availability and food production(especially if there is a shortage of water for irrigation)would lead to indirect impacts on human health associated with nutritional and hygiene issues.

Very little socioeconomic information about the impacts of climate change is available for the MENA region(UNEP,1997;World Bank,2007).The best available estimates indicate that impacts on GDP may be higher than the world average.One way of expressing the potential impacts of climate change is to derive a comprehensive monetary estimate,which sums all known impacts and is expressed as a monetary value(Rubio and Recatala,2006).Estimating effects on marketed goods and services in monetary terms is relatively straightforward because the prices are known.Examples would be commercial or residential land loss resulting from sea-level rise,and energy savings in winter due to higher temperatures.Estimating damage to non-marketed goods and services(e.g.,wetland loss,mortality changes)in monetary terms is possible either through examining market transactions where such goods or services are implicitly traded,or through interviewing people to determine their preferences.The best estimate of the annual impact of a doubling of the CO2concentration in the atmosphere is about 0.9%-5.5% of GDP for the Middle East,compared with 1.4%–1.9% of GDP for the world(UNEP,1997).Many assumptions underlie these best guesses,however,and large uncertainties remain.

4 General approaches for combating desertification in the MENA region

The priority actions in the MENA region are the fight against desertification,droughts,and soil degradation;integrated management of water resources;prevention,control,and management of invading species;management of marine and coastal environments;and conservation and management of natural resources(forests,biodiversity,genetic resources).There are several approaches for preventing or combating desertification;some primary examples include:

1)Development of closed irrigation systems and reducing soil degradation by improving the carbon and water storage capacity of the soil;

2)Integration of flood-dependent production systems that build on rather than try to suppress flood pulse;

3)Introduction of water treatment and solar energy systems that exploit radiation and heat from the sun;

4)Cultivation of desert crops that could tolerate drought and salinity;

5)Afforestation programs;

6)Management of grazing lands to improve their quality and prevent soil degradation;

7)Development of mariculture(aquaculture)which exploits both sun and saline water for the cultivation of fish,seafood,and algae;

8)Promotion of ecotourism based on annual bird migrations and rehabilitation of endangered desert mammals to the area;

9)Creation of an observatory for natural droughts,desertification,and natural disasters;

10)Reinforcement of conservation and sustainable use of natural resources;

11)The long-term implementation of a network of ecological controls;

12)Use of geographical information systems(GIS)in the fields of water and rangelands management;

13)Establishment of a regional database and research on desertification:

• Creation of a regional network to collect data and conduct research could prove beneficial in combating desertification in the region.

• A framework which would facilitate the exchange of know-how and foster cooperation in conducting surveys that would benefit all parties in the region can be developed.Joint research facilities can be established which would house activities of researchers from all countries in the region.Analysis of this research will enable more efficient planning of the region's economic development.

5 Saline agriculture as a tool for combating desertification

Utilization of saline water and soil is a potential approach for combating desertification in the region.Learning how to use saline water for irrigation and growing crops or maintaining forage in saline soils is a challenge.The potential role of halophytic and salt-tolerant fodder crops as feed ingredients for livestock have been fully investigated in some countries in the region(Benjamin and Oren,1986;Ben Salemetal.,2002;Khan and Ansari,2008;Khanet al.,2009;El Shaer,2010;Fahmiet al.,2010).It seems that many halophytic plant species could be successfully used for several purposes with a high economic benefit,namely,rehabilitation of marginal zones,animal feed and human food production,soil protection and sand dune fixation,landscaping and greenification,and medicinal and ornamental production resources(Koocheki and Mohalati,1994;El Shaer,2010).Major crops that are today irrigated with saline water include cotton,barley,triticale,wheat,corn,different fodder and oil crops,and some fruits,including olives.A number of secondary crops are grown with saline water as well.Many investigators(El Shaer,1981;Kandil and El Shaer,1988;Arieliet al.,1989;Koocheki and Mohalati,1994;Ben Salemet al.,2002)have shown that alternative halophytes and salt-tolerant plants could provide additional good-quality feed resources with reasonable economic advantages for livestock production,particularly in countries suffering from feed shortage.

Data for common natural halophytic ranges in the region,relating nutritive values and palatability for sheep,goats,and camels,is presented in Table 1.It appears that palatability and nutritive values vary significantly among the plant species but,in general,most halophytes could have a great potential for grazing animals and contain sufficient levels of crude protein and other essential nutrients which seems to cover the nutritional requirements of livestock(El Shaer,1981;Kandil and El Shaer,1988;Arieliet al.,1989;Koocheki and Mohalati,1994).

The chemical composition of some promising salt-tolerant fodder crops grown in North Sinai,Egypt(DRC,2012)is summarized(as overall means)in Table 2.It is generally concluded that all forage feed materials contain variable concentrations of crude protein(CP)ranging from 7.18%–18.82%,with leucaena and alfalfa showing the highest CP content.These fodders should be recommended as good feed materials under saline conditions.Fodder beets and all grass species,such as pearl millet,sorghum,andPanicum,are considered good sources of energy fodder crops.Therefore,such forage species are nutritious feed materials for small ruminants since they contain most of the essential nutrients sufficient to cover the nutritional requirements of small ruminants.

However,future research is required into the following aspects:

1)Screening of additional crops for salt tolerance;

2)Plant breeding and selection for salt tolerance;

3)Development of management procedures specific to each particular crop;

4)Physiological studies to better understand the mechanisms of salt tolerance in crop plants and improving the nutrient quality.

Table 1 Average values of proximate composition(%,DM),digestibility,and palatability rate of most common halophytes

Table 2 Overall means of the chemical composition of some salt-tolerant fodder crops(as % on DM basis)

6 Regional initiatives and the way forward

The regional initiatives in the MENA region were discussed by Maha Ali Al-Zu'bi(2013,web site http://www.ecomena.org/tag/ascad/).It was reported that combating desertification is an integral part of sustainable development in the MENA region,which can be achieved by ensuring participation of civil society,implementation of modern water management techniques,and use of traditional knowledge.There have been great efforts by regional governments and international organizations to tackle the menace of desertification;additionally,there are many technical programs in the MENA region to address desertification problems.Most of the actions dealing with desertification are monitoring exercises which evaluate the damage and/or losses attributable to desertification(UNEP,1997).Although some of the MENA countries have recently launched action plans and are implementing programs to reduce the effects of desertification and conserve their biodiversity(UNEP,1997),the actual efforts and resources devoted to combating desertification are less than what is required to tackle the growing problem.Mobilization of national and regional inputs is an urgent need of the hour.Active participation of all stakeholders,implementation of modern techniques,and more research initiatives are required to mitigate land degradation.

Organized and concerted efforts are required at global,regional,and national levels to help populations most affected by desertification.Raising awareness among both local communities and decision makers is crucial in the fight against desertification.Additionally,decision makers,governments,researchers,and stakeholders should focus on the synergies between the three Rio conventions:1-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changes(UNFCCC),2-Convention Biological Diversity(CBD)and 3-United Nations Convention to Compact Desertification(UNCCD).They should also address integration at sector levels,such as water,energy,and food security,and explore relationships between development sectors and natural resources.

Based on the information reported by the Middle East Institute Viewpoints(2011),most of the MENA countries have ratified the UNCCD convention and are revising earlier plans or preparing new national strategies,action plans,and integrated financing strategies to combat desertification.The action plans involve long-term integrated strategies for improved productivity of land coupled with rehabilitation,conservation,and sustainable management of land and water resources,at the national as well as community levels.

Moreover,the Arab countries have established some science institutions,such as the Desert Research Center(DRC)in Cairo,Egypt,the Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands(ASCAD)in Damascus,Syria,the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas(ICARDA)in Beirut,Lebanon,and the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture(ICBA)in Dubai,UAE,all of which are capable of addressing conservation and development of natural resources in arid lands.Other sub-regional forums include the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC),the Mediterranean Action Plan(MAP),the Regional Organization for the Conservation of the Environment of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden(PERSGA),and the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment(ROPME).

7 Conclusions

People living in the MENA region,particularly in arid and semi-arid areas,where poverty and malnutrition are endemic,are already struggling to make an adequate living under the stress of climate changes and desertification,and population growth is making things worse.It is very crucial to create the required institutional set-up for implementing,coordinating,and monitoring the execution of national plans for combating desertification and implement this program at the highest governmental level possible.In addition,to provide the necessary resources to establish a"Drought Watch and Early Warning System" for the timely alert and preparedness of each country in the region,each country should adopt a "participatory approach" by closely involving community sectors at the grass-roots level,including NGOs,women,and youth,in the formulation/implementation of the programs.

It is proposed that a joint regional study should be conducted,encompassing the various subjects relating to desertification,in an attempt to formulate policies designed to address this problem.Joint investment projects that extend beyond research and policy planning can be identified and initiated by the various parties sharing a common ecological subsystem.

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