中图分类号 S513 文献标识码A 文章编号 1007-7731（2025）14-0001-06

DOI号 10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2025.14.001

Impact of climate change on summer maize yield in Huaibei City from 1982 to 2021

LIU Lu1CAO Wen ZHANG Yongqin1YIN Han1WANG Shengnan1LIN Shanshan1LI Xinran1 （1Huaibei Meteorological Bureau，Huaibei 2350oo， China; ²Anhui Enginering LaboratoryofAgro-EcologicalBig Data，Anhui Agrometeorological Center，Hefei230031，China）

AbstractBased on meteorological and yield data of summer maize growth period in Huaibei City，Anhui Province from1982 to 2O21，the characteristicsof climate changeduring the growth periodof summer maize in theregionand its impact on yield were analyzed using trend analysis，moving average method，and Pearsoncorrelation analysis method. The results showed that（1）from1982 to2O21，the studyarea hadsuffcient precipitation，heat，andsunshineresources duringthe growth period of summer maize，which met the growth and development of summer maize.（2）From 1982 to 2021，the changes in summer maize yield and meteorological yield in the study area showeda consistent downward trend，withsignificant interannual variations inyieldandscatereddistributionofmeteorologicalyield.Byanalyzingthe relative meteorological yield，itcould beconcluded thatthe typical years of summer maize yield deficit in this region were 1987，1994，2003，2007and2014，mainlyafected bymeteorologicaldisasters such as droughtand waterloging （including continuousrainy weather）. （3）The diurnal temperature rangeand precipitation were the key meteorological factors affecting the yield of summer maize in study area，among which the diurnal temperature range during the milk ripening maturity period is significantly positively correlated with yield （ P lt;0.01）; The precipitation during the tasseling milk ripening period is significantly negatively correlated with yield （ P lt;0.05）; The average temperature，effective accumulated temperaturegt;1OC，and sunshine hours have no significant impacton yield.Thisarticle provides a reference for regulating the microclimate in the field and improving maize yield.

Keywordsclimate change; summer maize; meteorological yield; related analysis

气候是农业生产中基本且重要的条件之一，其影响着农业的组成、布局和产量等l。近年来，相关学者对气候变化展开研究[2-3]。赵伟[4研究指出，气候因素是农业生产的重要影响因素之一，其对玉米种植产生了较大的影响。

玉米是喜温、短日照、高需水量作物，其生长发育对气温、日照及降水要求较高[5-。研究气候变化对玉米产量的影响，对促进产业发展和增加农民收入具有积极意义。Lobell等研究发现，玉米生育期环境温度超过 会产生热胁迫，导致光合速率下降、蒸散发增加，进而提高干旱发生的概率。Chen等8研究发现，气温升高会导致长江流域玉米减产，极端高温、干旱和强降水对玉米产量影响较大。Liu等研究发现，极端低温以及玉米开花灌浆期降水较少会导致玉米减产。另外，干旱也是影响玉米产量的重要因素之一[10]。从各生育阶段来看，生育早期干旱会导致玉米生殖器官发育减缓1；在生殖生长阶段，缺水会引起光合作用下降，从而导致生殖器官的营养供应不足，造成玉米减产[2]。光合作用是玉米营养物质积累的主要来源，而抽雄吐丝阶段光照充足是保证玉米产量的关键[13]。

近年来，关于气候变化对农业生产的影响研究较多[14]，但针对气候变化对淮北地区夏玉米不同生育阶段生长及产量影响的研究相对较少。本文基于1982一2021年安徽淮北市夏玉米生育期的气象数据和产量数据，分析了该地区夏玉米不同生育期的气候变化特征及其对产量的影响，为充分开发利用气候资源和提高粮食产量提供参考。……