马学军

摘 要：主要从风险发生可能性与风险后果这两大方面着手进行评估，评估出来的是管网本质安全风险，通过合理、有效的安全管理可以一定程度降低管网风险发生的可能和后果，结合前端安全监测设备的布设、定期的巡检运维有助于及时感知风险，应急队伍和应急资源的远近有助于及时处置风险，基于以上多风险要素的供水管网风险评估方法的应用。

关键词：多要素 供水管网 评估方法 风险管控

中图分类号：TU991.33     文献标识码：A

Application of the Risk Assessment Method for Water Supply Pipelines Based on Multiple Risk Factors

MA Xuejun

（Hefei Zezhong Urban Intelligent Technology Co.， Ltd.， Hefei， Anhui Province， 230000 China）

Abstract：This paper mainly evaluates from the two aspects of risk occurrence possibility and risk consequences， and what is evaluated is the essential safety risk of the pipe network. Reasonable and effective safety management can reduce the possibility and consequence of pipe network risks to a certain extent， regular inspection and operation and maintenance can help timely perceive risks in combination with the deployment of front-end safety monitoring equipment， and the distance of emergency teams and emergency resources can help timely deal with risks. This paper discussesthe application of the risk assessment method for the water supply network based on the above multiple risk factors.

Key Words：Multiple factors; Water supply network; Evaluation method; Risk management and control

隨着我国经济建设的发展，城市人口不断增加，随之产生的用水需求量也在不断攀升，给市政供水管网工作带来较大的压力，供水管网漏损现象严重。随着时间的增长，供水压力大、管道老化、管道漏损等现象频繁发^[1]，导致管网泄漏，引发爆管、地面坍塌等次生衍生灾害。分析了主要风险因素的事故影响机理，包括第三方破坏、腐蚀、老化和温度变化^[2]。当前技术的发展和使用趋势，对数字孪生技术在智慧供水建设中的实际探索进行相应^[3]，一种基于多风险要素的供水管道风险进行评估，对于本质的风险结合目前的防控措施进行风险系数修正，形成新的风险值，从而可有针对性地指导管网管道的运行维护管理与更新改造^[4]。

1 技术方案

此次风险评估首先进行控制性指标判断，如存在老旧管线和动态指标则根据控制性指标方法进行判断；如无控制性指标，则进行安全风险评估，考虑风险发生可能性和后果性；……