许武华 刘程军 周建平 郑金辉

摘 要：   基于2011—2019年长三角地区41个地级市数据，采用Dagum基尼系数测算了长三角地区城市韧性及其子系统韧性的地区差距，并运用二次指派程序（QAP）对其进行实证分析。研究表明：长三角地区经济韧性差距总体呈现出下降—上升趋势，而社会、生态及城市韧性差距总体呈现出上升—下降—上升趋势，不同韧性视角下各省内部地区差距明显，地区间差距是构成各韧性总体差距的主要来源。QAP回归结果表明，数字经济发展水平对于缩小不同城市韧性及其子系统地区差距具有显著正向作用；分时期结果表明，相较于“十二五”规划时期“十三五”规划时期的数字经济发展水平对缩小城市韧性地区差距具有边际递减效应，但正向影响依旧显著。

关键词：  城市韧性；数字经济；韧性差异；Dagum基尼系数；QAP分析

中图分类号：  F 49

文献标志码：   A

Research on Regional Differences and Drivers of Urban Resiliencein the Yangtze River Delta in  Digital Economy

XU Wuhua1 LIU Chengjun2 ZHOU Jianping1 ZHENG Jinhui1

（1.School of Economics， Zhejiang University of Technology， Hangzhou 310023， China;2.School of Zhijiang， Zhejiang University of Technology， Shaoxing 312030， China）

Abstract：  Based on the data of 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2011 to 2019， the Dagum Gini coefficient was used to measure the regional gaps in the resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region and their subsystems. It is empirically analyzed by the Quadratic Assignment Program （QAP）. The research shows that： the economic resilience gap in the Yangtze River Delta region generally shows a downward-rising trend， while the social， ecological and urban resilience gap generally shows an upward-declining-rising trend. From different perspectives of resilience， the gaps between provinces and regions are obvious， and the gaps between regions are the components of the gap. The main source of the overall gap in resilience. The QAP regression results show that the development level of the digital economy has a significant positive effect on narrowing the gaps in the resilience of different cities and their subsystems. The level of economic development has a marginal decreasing effect on narrowing the gap between urban resilience regions， but the positive effect is still significant.

Key words：   urban resilience; digital economy; difference in toughness; Dagum Gini coefficient; QAP analysis

改革開放以来，中国遭受了自然灾害、金融危机、新冠肺炎疫情等多次外部风险冲击，城市作为行稳致远的“压舱石”首当其冲，发展面临着难以预知的持续冲击。《长江三角洲区域一体化发展规划纲要》指出长三角地区人口总计2.27亿，常住人口城镇化率超过60%，以其不到4%的国土面积贡献了近1/4的经济总量。人力资本的红利给长三角带来了巨大的繁荣，其面临的历次风险与挑战也是前所未有的。新时代以来，中国社会主要矛盾转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾，人民对安全的需求与日俱增。……