关秋韵

自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，中国—东盟区域不仅是遭受疫情冲击较早的地区，也是最先开展国际合作共同应对疫情挑战并取得成绩的地区。然而，随着“后疫情时代”有望到来，面对复杂的国际形势，中国—东盟需要应对哪些新的挑战？新机遇能否在双方共克时艰中萌生？中国与东盟又能否携手应对挑战，化“危”为“机”呢？

在近期举行的第十三届中国—东盟智库战略对话论坛（以下简称智库论坛）上，与会嘉宾围绕这些问题展开了深入探讨。

前路并非坦途

长远来看，中国—东盟关系总体保持健康稳定地发展，但前路并非一片坦途。其中，域外国家对国际局势的影响是最主要的外部挑战，如何应对域外国家的负面影响，已经成为中国—东盟关系发展无法回避的重要问题之一。

“某些西方大国目前正大力推进‘印太经济框架，以四边机制为主要平台，围绕贸易、经济、科技以及有韧性的供应链、减碳、清洁能源、基础设施调控标准等方面，在中国和东盟之间打入其他的经济援助，中国在该领域的合作项目可能会因为这些干扰和阻碍出现变数。若这个框架向湄公河流域渗透，形成海陆并进的态势，东盟未来‘选边站的压力会不断增大。”北京大学国际关系学院教授、泰国法政大学比里·帕侬荣国际学院特聘教授杨保筠分析称，“但亦不必过度担心，东盟国家对于任何带有遏制排他性的政策都十分地警惕，与中国合作共赢始终是东盟各国的一个战略共识。”

“我们也需关注东南亚民众对华认知的变化，疫情暴发后，东南亚国家内部不同社会群体对华认知出现了一些差异。”四川省社会科学院印度研究中心副主任陈吉祥表示。

一方面东盟国家与民众对中国的表现予以积极评价。根据印尼外交政策协会发布的《2021年度中国—东盟关系民调报告》来看，东盟10国中67%的受访者认可或者强烈认可中国和东盟的紧密合作，相信这能够帮助东南亚分担疫情的冲击;但另一方面，也有一些民众对于大量使用中国疫苗表示顾虑，而这些无疑都需要双方进一步地增信释疑。

“加之新冠肺炎疫情对双边的人文交流造成了一定的影响，中国—东盟的人员往来受阻，包括旅游和商务往来人数都急剧减少，双方留学生也无法到对方国家正常学习，很多对话交流只能通过线上来进行，长此以往并不利于双方，尤其是民间民众增进了解。”陈吉祥补充说道。

化“危”为“机”，中国—东盟应携手应对

随着后疫情时代的机遇与危机一一显现，“紧抓机遇”“加强合作”成为中国—东盟携手应对挑战的关键词。那么想要化“危”为“机”，中国—东盟合作路在何方？

在中国东南亚研究会会长、广西八桂学者庄国土看来，加强双方战略协调，增进政治互信是中国—东盟抵御外界政治威胁的重要力量。双方应强化高层战略对话与政策沟通，把中国的发展战略和东盟国家的发展战略相互嵌入与深度对接，凝聚起更多共识。

“夯实民意基础也是双方需要努力的方向。”中国—东盟商务理事会执行理事长、RCEP产业合作委员会主席许宁宁说，政治互信来自于民意基础，经济合作也离不开民意基础，要下足功夫做民心相通，推动民意基础的改善。在遵守民心相通规律的前提下，充分发挥社会民间的力量，包括智库、青年教育、媒体、文化等领域的合作，增进相互了解与相互信赖。

杨保筠则认为，后疫情时代下，加强疫情防控、加快疫苗研发和生产依旧是保障各领域良好稳定发展的首要任务，也是最终决定能否战胜疫情的关键。

“首先，我们需要积极与东盟国家开展疫苗研发合作，以实际行动促进疫苗的可及性和可负担性，帮助东盟战胜疫情。其次，合作建立完善的中国—东盟公共卫生安全合作新秩序，实行轮值主席国制度，重大问题表决决定。最后，尽快启动中国—东盟公共卫生应急联络网，组织实施中国—东盟公共卫生行政人员培训班等项目，协助东盟国家加强卫生能力建设。”杨保筠说。

而面对经济复苏这一时代命题，老挝社会与经济科学院企业发展政策与国际融合研究中心副主任、研究员冯萨万·西提德斯说：“疫情暴发以来，数字经济新产业、新业态不断涌现，成为推动经济复苏的重要引擎。加强创新、信息技术产业开发将成为东盟各国政府围绕新一轮科技产业制高点、培育新经济动力的重要出发点，在不久的将来，老挝希望可以与中国在中国—东盟合作框架下进行数字领域的合作和协作。”她强调，在稳固中国—东盟经贸合作的基础上培育经济新模式，不仅有助于激活后疫情时代的经济增长，还将增加东盟抵御外界经济威胁的能力。

“后疫情时代下，中国和东盟面临困难与挑战不可避免，但只要双方携手应对，共克时艰，团结合作，自然能将‘危转化为‘机。”许宁宁在接受记者采访时这样说道。

进入后疫情时代，中国—东盟深化合作的前景如何？

当我们回顧中国—东盟关系多年来的发展历程，大概率会发现，这是一个由危机驱动的合作。从金融危机到非典疫情，再到新冠肺炎疫情，双方经历了一次次重大考验，锻造了更为牢固的伙伴关系。马来西亚《新海峡时报》近日刊文分析称，即使进入后疫情时代，中国—东盟在各领域的合作还将向前推进，双方善于从共同直面问题和挑战中寻求发展新机。

持有同样乐观态度的，还有中国国际问题研究院副研究员杜兰。她在智库论坛上说道：“首先，双方发展关系的政治意愿在不断增强。携手抗疫的这一年多来，中国与东盟都对加强双边政治互信、维护共同利益的需求形成了高度认识。例如，中国—东盟关于应对南海问题、缅甸问题、气候变化、发展减贫等地区热点、全球治理问题的合作需求正在加深。在前不久落幕的中国—东盟建立对话关系30周年纪念峰会上，双方更是由‘战略伙伴关系升级为‘全面战略伙伴关系，中方表示要推动高质量共建‘一带一路，针对东盟提出的‘印太展望开展合作，这在疫情阴霾笼罩全球、贸易保护主义抬头等背景下显得难能可贵。”

杜兰认为，接下来，中国会更积极地展现出应有的大国担当，推动中国—东盟进一步加强政治战略上的协调对接，东盟国家会积极支持中方提出的全球发展倡议主张，双方将成为共同应对各类挑战不可缺少的伙伴。她说：“双方经济发展的复苏前景向好，合作需求将更加旺盛。中国是率先走出疫情影响的国家，根据IMF（国际货币基金组织）最新预测，中国经济增长将在2022年达到8.4%，东盟10国除缅甸外，也都有望恢复正增长。”

“此外，‘十四五期間，中国进入新发展阶段，将实践更大力度更高水平的对外开放。东盟作为中国双循环新发展格局下的一个重点合作地区，其产能的成本优势和中国完备的制造业产业链配套可以形成有效互补，从而编织成联系紧密的经济网络。加之中国—东盟自贸区3.0版建设已在规划中，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）正式生效等政策加持，传统经贸将向跨境金融、数字经济等高附加值方向升级拓展。”杜兰这样说道。

也许我们并不确定疫情何时会彻底过去，也无法预测接下来的国际形势将如何发展，但努力推动中国—东盟良好发展协作，进一步扩大合作的积极外溢效应，提升双边合作水平，推动区域经济复苏，实现社会繁荣是我们始终坚定要走的道路。

Vietnam is likely to see near-term benefits from its membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership， a free trade agreement to come into force in January， following the November 2 ratification by Australia and New Zealand.

Fifteen Asia-Pacific nations have signed the RCEP， including China， South Korea， Japan， Australia， New Zealand， and the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members — Brunei， Cambodia， Indonesia， Laos， Malaysia， Myanmar， the Philippines， Singapore， Thailand， and Vietnam.

It is widely considered the worlds largest free trade deal， accounting for approximately 30% of the worlds population and 30% of global gross domestic product. It is ultimately expected to remove tariffs on more than 90% of goods traded in the region.

Vietnam considers RCEP to be one of a series of successes in international economic integration， especially in the context of COVID-19 and the needs of economic recovery. Along with 14 Vietnamese free trade agreements already in effect， RCEP is expected to allow Vietnamese exports to enter more markets at lower tariff rates.

Steven Okun， senior adviser at geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates， told VOA that RCEP is a significant agreement， especially when it comes to making trade easier and better integrating supply chains.

“In long term， if RCEP brings greater China， Japan， and Korea closer on trade， this would limit U.S. economic integration in the region but could offer opportunities for countries in Southeast Asia， including Vietnam. It would likely not impact the ongoing shift of supply chains out of China，” he said.

Cheaper imports

For Vietnam， RCEP will also pave the way for cheaper imports， especially of materials needed for production. Within ASEAN alone， Vietnams annual imports of raw materials and production equipment exceed US$ 30 billion. In addition， Vietnam still has a trade deficit of several tens of billions of dollars per year with major markets such as China and South Korea， according to the Ministry of Planning and Investments newspaper.

Raw materials imported from RCEP countries will be considered as raw materials produced in Vietnam when products are exported to RCEP member countries. This allows the exported product to be labeled as made in Vietnam， lowering tariffs imposed by the importing country. These are also countries that provide a huge amount of raw material for Vietnams billion-dollar export industries， such as electronics， components， textiles， footwear， and others.

“Therefore， Vietnam enjoys many benefits from RCEP， when it has strong products such as agriculture and fishery meeting the needs of most RCEP members. Thanks to the harmonization of rules of origin within the RCEP bloc， Vietnamese goods can more easily meet conditions for enjoying preferential tariffs and increase exports in the region， especially Japan， South Korea， Australia， and New Zealand，” the newspaper said.

Phan Thi Thanh Xuan， vice president of Vietnam Leather， Footwear and Handbag Association， said that the industry will benefit from the advantage of importing raw materials from China under RCEP. Vietnam can already import the raw materials under the ASEAN-China FTA， but Vietnamese-manufactured exports to countries other than China or other ASEAN members are not considered to have been made in Vietnam. Under the RCEP， such exports to Japan or other RCEP signatories benefit from lower tariffs as products made in Vietnam.

Concerns about domestic market

From Vietnams perspective， participation in RCEP brings both pros and cons. While the prospect of increasing exports would lead to positive economic growth indicators for Vietnam， there are concerns over how the agreement will affect the domestic market， where small and medium-size enterprises， which account for 98% of companies， will expect a flood of goods from elsewhere.

In the footwear industry， for example， Thanh Xuan said small and medium-size companies must improve to survive as “the inner strength is very weak. In a competitive market， if they dont improve， they are easily eliminated.”

“In fact， the share of the number of SMEs accounts for 60% in the footwear industrybut the contribution to exports is low， at less than 20%. In contrast， foreign direct investment and big enterprises in Vietnam account only about 30 to 40%， but their proportion of exports is up to 80 to 90%，” she said.

“There are advantages as well that help Vietnam improve its capacity. In the footwear industry， Vietnam has many additional advantages， and is currently the second-largest source of footwear exports in the world. We also created a fairly long-term supply chain with major markets. Foreign investment in Vietnam is a long-term process， accounting for a fairly large proportion，” Thanh Xuan told VOA.

She added： “In general， the growth potential for this industry is still very good， still competitive， and still earning reputation within big brands — they still maintain orders in Vietnam， and foreign investors are still committed to continue manufacturing in Vietnam， at least for another 10 to 20 years.”

Okun， who is also the former chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore， said Vietnam has a major advantage over most RCEP members because it has signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership， another trade agreement.

He said the CPTPP also has “high-quality digital trade rules which， if fully implemented， would strengthen Vietnam's digital economy and open up new opportunities for the digital economy to be the next engine of growth for Vietnam.”

“Vietnam should act immediately to implement its commitments within the CPTPP and go beyond by establishing new digital trade agreements， such as with key partners such as Singapore. This would enable Vietnam to maintain its preferential position in developing a foundation for its economic recovery， being one of the few countries to benefit from both RCEP and the CPTPP and maximizing its opportunities for growth through the digital economy，” he told VOA.

· Source： Voice of America