张雪一 薛伟 李奇

摘 要：为合理评价兴安落叶松（Larix gmelinii）人工林采伐迹地火险等级，探究火险因素之间的相互影响作用，为兴安落叶松人工林区防火提供理论支撑，本文采用交叉影响法，结合马尔可夫预测模型，对影响火灾的17个因素进行交叉分析，并计算各因素的校正概率。通过对大兴安岭新林区落叶松林班的案例分析可知：在经过交叉影响后，该研究区域的温度、相对湿度、降水量、可燃物分布方式和伐根油脂含量造成火灾的可能性呈上升趋势;坡度、可燃物储量、伐根高度、消防安全意识和消防巡查监管造成火灾的可能性呈下降趋势。改进交叉影响分析法可以应用到兴安落叶松人工林采伐迹地的火险因素分析中，能够正确地分析各因素之间的相互影响关系，为兴安落叶松人工林区的消防风险决策提供了新的思路与方向。

关键词：兴安落叶松;采伐迹地;交叉影响法;火险因素;马尔可夫预测

中图分类号：S762.2 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-8023（2021）06-0010-07

Abstract：In order to reasonably evaluate the level of fire danger in Larix gmelinii logging slash and explore the interaction between fire danger factors， and provide the theoretical support for the fire prevention of Larix gmelinii plantation， in this paper， the cross-impact method and Markov prediction model were used to analyze the 17 factors affecting the fire， and the correction probability of each factor was calculated. Through the Larix gmelimii of Xinlin District in Daxingan mountains case analysis， it can be seen that after the cross impact， the possibility of fire caused by the temperature， relative humidity， precipitation， fuel distribution pattern and oil content of cutting roots were on the rise. The probability of fire caused by the gradient， fuel reserves， cutting height， fire safety awareness， and fire patrol and supervision showed a downward trend in the area. The improved cross-impact analysis method can be applied to the analysis of fire danger factors in Larix gmelinii logging slash， which can correctly analyze the interaction between the factors， and provide a new idea and direction for the fire risk decision of Larix gmelinii plantation.

Keywords：Larix gmelinii; logging slash; cross-impact method; fire danger factors; Markov forecast

0 引言

興安落叶松（Larix gmelinii）人工林分布在大小兴安岭地区，是东北林区的主要树种，其蓄积量和采伐量都位居全国首位[1]。不同于杉木、桉树等树种，兴安落叶松在采伐过后，其伐根和枝干会残留大量的油脂，同时，由于采伐后上层乔木的消失，采伐迹地的郁闭度减小，光照强度会急剧提高，加上剩余的其他可燃物，以及各种人为参与的因素，发生森林火灾的可能性会显著提升[2-4]。因此，开展对兴安落叶松人工林采伐迹地火险因素的研究很有意义。……