白贺兰 马小黎 李珂璟 任慧 杨城 王统勋

摘要：利用動态偏离份额模型与区位熵模型分析了西北民族地区4省（区）八大产业结构与竞争力的动态变化。结果表明，2006 — 2017年，4省（区）八大产业结构偏离分量变化趋势相同，但竞争偏离分量变化趋势各不相同。期末有结构优势的主要为第三产业，有竞争力优势的主要为第一产业;建筑业在全国均具区位熵优势，批发和零售业、房地产业均处区位熵劣势。该区域具总体优势的产业首要为工业，其次为建筑业，房地产业处劣势地位。青海、宁夏八大产业总体优势十分类似，甘肃、新疆略有相同，长期发展趋势4省（区）各具特色。

关键词：DSSM;区位熵模型;产业结构;产业竞争力;西北民族地区

中图分类号：F127.8       文献标志码：A       文章编号：1001-1463（2021）10-0039-13

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1001-1463.2021.10.010

Analysis of Structure and Competitiveness of Northwest Ethnic Regions Based on DSSM-location Quotient Model

BAI Helan， MA Xiaoli， LI Kejing， REN Hui， YANG Cheng， WANG Tongxun

（Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information， Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences， Lanzhou Gansu 730070， China）

Abstract：Optimizing industrial structure and improving industrial competitiveness is an important measure to promote regional economic development. The analysis of industrial structure and competitiveness in northwest minority areas is of great significance to the economic growth of this area and even to solve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development between the East and West of China. This paper analyzes the dynamic changes of eight industries structure and competitiveness of four provinces （regions） in Northwest China by using dynamic shift share model （DSSM） and location quotient model （LQM）. The results show that from 2006 to 2017， the trend of eight industries structure deviation is the same in four provinces， but the trend of competition deviation is different. At the end of the period， the tertiary industry has structural advantage， and the primary industry has competitive advantage; The construction industry has the advantage of location quotient in the whole country， while the wholesale and retail industry and the real estate industry are in the disadvantage of location quotient; The industry with overall advantages in this region is mainly industry， followed by construction industry， and the real estate industry is in a disadvantageous position，The overall advantages of the eight industries in Qinghai and Ningxia are very similar， while Gansu and Xinjiang are slightly the same. The long-term advantages of the four provinces have their own characteristics. Based on this， this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions， such as promoting the optimization and upgrading process of agriculture， forestry， animal husbandry and fishery industrial structure， upgrading the secondary industrial structure level， and promoting the integration of the three industries.

Key words：Dynamic shift share model （DSSM）; Location quotient model （LQM）; Industrial structure; Industrial competitiveness; Northwest Ethnic Regions

西北民族地区位于我国西北部，亚欧大陆腹地，包括甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆四省（区），土地总面积约占全国的1/3。该区域地形地貌复杂多样，少数民族众多，空间位置偏僻、经济发展滞后，但在国防安全、经济腾飞、社会发展以及全方位开放中具有极其特殊而重要的地位。自从西部大开发战略实施以来，西北民族地区的经济发展已经取得长足进步，但相较于中东部地区，该地区经济发展增速比较迟缓，与东中部地区的差距日益增大。党的十九大报告提出“实施区域协调发展战略”[1 ]，解决发展不平衡、不充分的问题。改革开放40多年来，产业结构变迁对我国经济增长贡献十分显著。产业结构变迁是经济增长对技术进步的吸收融 合[2 ]，产业结构优化体现在产业结构的高级化和结构内部的合理化，是合理化與高级化的有机统一[3 - 4 ]。……