摘 要：指出以往有關迁移流动人口生育水平的研究仍存在两个盲点：一是忽略流动人口孩子出生地对生育率统计的影响;二是忽略对流动人口流入地居住时长与生育率关系的分析。在明晰两个盲点及其对生育率统计带来的影响后，分别通过时期孩次递进比计算时期生育率、采用泊松回归分析累计生育率，再次对流动人口生育水平进行了分析。研究发现，农业户籍流动人口的前三孩时期生育率大致在1.7上下，农业户籍流动人口曾生子女数是农村本地人口的89.5%。农业户籍流动人口时期生育率、累计生育率均低于农村本地人口。

进一步分析指出，在我国人口大流迁背景下，后续研究也应该关注我国时期生育率该如何度量的问题。

关键词：农业户籍流动人口;农村本地人口;时期孩次递进比;泊松回归

中图分类号： C921

文献标识码：A

文章编号：1000-4149（2021）05-0095-16

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2021.00.042

收稿日期：2021-03-12

;修订日期：2021-07-30

基金项目：2019年华东政法大学科学研究项目“生育政策：调整效果研判与未来走向选择”（19HZK025）;上海市教委科研创新重大项目“新时代中国人口发展战略研究”（E00026）;国家社会科学基金重点项目“家庭为中心的迁移和福利政策研究”（17ARK002）;

国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国高学历人口迁移新动向及政策优化研究”（19CRK021）。

作者简介：梁同贵，法学博士，华东政法大学社会发展学院讲师。

中文作者简介

The Two Blindness in the Research on the Fertility Level of

Migrants and a Re-examination on the Fertility Level

LIANG  Tonggui

（School of Social Development， East China University of Political

Science and Law， Shanghai 201620， China）

Abstract： This paper points out that there are still two blind spots in the previous studies on the fertility level of migrants. One is to ignore the effect of

birth place

structure of floating population on fertility statistics; and the other is to ignore the analysis of the relationship between

residence duration of migrants and fertility rate. After

identifying

the two blind spots and their influences on fertility statistics， this paper

examines the impact of population mobility on fertility level by calculating fertility rate in period by progressive ratio of children to children and analyzing cumulative fertility rate by Poisson regression.

analyzes the period fertility rate through period parity progression ratios， analyzes the cumulative fertility rate through Poisson regression.

It is found that the period fertility on totally three children of the circular migrants with agriculture accounts is about 1.7， the number of children born to the circular migrants with agriculture accounts is 0.895 times the number of children born in rural natives. Both the period fertility rates and cumulative fertility rates of the circular migrants with the agricultural household registration are lower than those of the local rural natives. This paper further points out that in the context of migration in China， the follow-up research should also pay attention to how to measure the period fertility rate in China.

Keywords：the  migrants with agriculture accounts;rural natives;period parity progression ratios;Poisson regression

一、研究背景

关于我国人口迁移流动对生育水平影响关系的研究，有学者认为流动人口确实存在多生的现象 [1-5]，还有学者认为迁移流动对生育水平降低有着显著性影响[6-12]。……