李文静 王盛 李庆 武桃丽 赵欣悦

摘要： 北三河流域是京津冀地區的重要水源地， 恰当分析流域水源供给时空变化及驱动因素对维持生态系统安全与稳定意义重大. 基于气象、土地利用及土壤等数据， 利用InVEST模型的产水模块分析了北三河流域2000—2017年水源供给量的时空变化特征， 通过情景模拟探讨了气候与土地利用变化对流域水源供给能力变化的贡献程度. 结果表明， 2000—2017年， 北三河流域年均水源供给量为17.8 × 108 m3， 其年际变化呈增加趋势， 增长率为1.03 × 108 m3/a. 水源供给量在空间上呈南高北低的分布格局， 南北部的平均产水深度分别为70.85 mm和8.83 mm， 水源供给高值区由东南泃河和还乡河流域向西南温河与永定北河流域转移. 从不同的土地利用类型来看， 单位面积水源供给能力由高到低为： 建设用地 > 耕地 > 水域 >未利用地 > 林地 > 草地. 2000—2015年， 耕地的水源供给量最高， 占流域水源供给总量的51.3%， 而建设用地水源供给量增长幅度最大， 达到144.3%. 情景模拟结果表明， 气候和土地利用变化对水源供给量增加的贡献率分别为70.7%和29.3%， 降水量的激增起到主导作用.

关键词： 水源供给能力； InVEST模型； 生态系统服务； 北三河流域

中图分类号： X826； Q149 文献标志码： A DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2021.04.012

The impacts of climate and land use changes on water yield in the Beisan River Basin

LI Wenjing1， WANG Sheng1， LI Qing2， WU Taoli1， ZHAO Xinyue1

（1. Geography Science Institute， Shanxi Normal University， Linfen Shanxi 041000， China； 2. Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application， Institute of Geographical Sciences， Hebei Academy of Sciences， Shijiazhuang 050011， China）

Abstract： The Beisan River Basin is an important water source for the Jing-Jin-Ji region. It is important to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in basin water yield and the corresponding driving factors to maintain the security and stability of the ecosystem. Based on meteorology， land use， and soil data， the water production module of the InVEST model was used to analyze the temporal and spatial change characteristics of water yield in the Beisan River Basin from 2000 to 2017. The contribution of climate and land use change to the change in water yield was explored through scenario simulation. The results showed that from 2000 to 2017， the average annual water yield of the Beisan River Basin was 17.8 × 108 m3； the annual change showed an increasing trend at a rate of 1.03 × 108 m3/a. The spatial distribution pattern of water yield was high in the south and low in the north. The average depth of water production in the south and north was 70.85 mm and 8.83 mm， respectively. The high value area of water yield was transferred from the southeast Juhe River and Huanxiang River Basin to the southwest Wenhe River and Yongdingbei River Basin. The water supply per unit area， ranked from high to low， across different land use types showed the following order： construction land > cultivated land > water area > unused land > forest land > grassland. From 2000 to 2015， the water yield of cultivated land was the highest， accounting for 51.3% of the total water yield of the basin， while that of construction land increased the most， reaching 144.3%. Scenario simulation results showed that climate and land use change contributed 70.7% and 29.3%， respectively， to the water yield increase， and the surge in precipitation played a leading role.

Keywords： water yield； InVEST model； ecosystem services； the Beisan River Basin

0 引 言

水资源是生命的源泉， 是人类生存和发展过程中不可缺少和替代的重要物质， 在社会经济可持续发展进程中具有重要作用[1]. 一个流域的水源供給能力是其生态过程与生态服务功能的基础， 不仅制约着该流域的生态平衡与生物多样性， 而且对人文经济发……