侯晓晔　苑春荟

摘 要：本文基于全球42个国家15年的面板数据，采用动态GMM和随机前沿分析方法（SFA）分析了制造业服务化对生产性服务业效率的影响。分析结果显示，在制造业服务化水平方面，发达国家略领先于发展中国家，在生产性服务业效率方面，发达国家远超于发展中国家。进一步发现制造业服务化对生产性服务业效率的影响是滞后的，其对生产性服务业效率的影响随时间由正转负。制造业服务化对中低端生产性服务业效率的提升作用相对较强，当期的制造业服务化只对发达国家生产性服务业效率有正向影响。本文的研究成果对推动我国两业融合发展，促进制造业高质量发展具有一定的启示作用。

关键词：制造业服务化;生产性服务业效率;SFA;动态面板GMM

中图分类号：F410文献标识码：A文章编号：1003-5192（2021）03-0090-07doi：10.11847/fj.40.3.90

The Influence of Manufacturing Serivice on the Efficiency of Producer Service

——Empirical Analysis of Dynamic GMM and SFA Methods Based on Panel Data

HOU Xiao-ye1，2， YUAN Chun-hui1

（1.School of Economics and Management， Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications， Beijing 100876， China; 2.China Academy of Industrial Internet， Beijing 100102， China）

Abstract：Based on the 15-year panel data of 42 countries， this paper analyzes the impact of manufacturing service on producer service efficiency by dynamic GMM and stochastic frontier analysis（SFA）. The results show that the developed countries are slightly ahead of the developing countries in terms of the service level of manufacturing， and the developed countries are far more efficient than the developing countries in terms of producer service. The impact of manufacturing service on producer service efficiency is lagging behind， and its impact on producer service efficiency changes from positive to negative over time. Manufacturing service has a strong effect on the efficiency of low-end producer services， and the current manufacturing service only has a positive impact on the efficiency of producer service in developed countries. The research results of this article have a certain enlightenment effect on promoting the integrated development of the two industries in our country and promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.

Key words：manufacturing service; producer service efficiency; SFA; dynamic panel GMM

1 引言

當前，在我国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的关键时刻，去工业化的现象出现得有些早，这会导致制造业的发展受阻，而当制造业和服务业的关联度高时，会同样阻碍服务业的发展，进而导致整体经济的发展受阻。制造业的技术渗透效应、外汇储备效应、产业关联效应只有在增加值比重超过30%的时候，实施去工业化，不会影响经济增长，因为服务业可以充当新的引擎。但如果制造业增加值比重低于30%，这时候急于实施去工业化，可能会增加掉入“中等收入陷阱”的风险。中国目前的服务业增长速度过快，工业占比的下降速度过快，这就让中国出现了过快去工业化的现象，并且还存在明显的“鲍莫尔成本病”现象。……