牛二伟

摘 要：地下水位控制与水量控制关系十分密切，针对地下水水量-水位双控管理，以长治盆地为研究对象，分析降水量、地下水位动态变化规律及其影响因素，通过建立的3种地下水数理统计模型，运用水均衡法进行水位变幅校核，结果表明：长治盆地地下水属于采补均衡区，降水是当年地下水位变幅的主要影响因子，而当年开采量可能对下一年地下水位变化有影响，将地下水位变幅作为因变量的数理统计模型更加合理;根据浅层地下水非超采区水位控制标准，当长治盆地丰水年地下水位年变幅ΔH≥0.97 m，平水年地下水位年变幅ΔH≈0 m，枯水年地下水位年变幅ΔH≤0.83 m时，可以满足该盆地浅层地下水采补均衡的要求。

关键词：降水量;地下水;数理统计模型;水均衡法;水位控制

中图分类号：TV211.1+2;X523;P641.11 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.05.021

Abstract： Taking the Changzhi Basin as the research object， this paper analyzed the precipitation， the dynamic change law of groundwater and the influencing factors and combined the controlled groundwater level and the exploitable groundwater， through different data processing methods， three kinds of mathematical statistical models of groundwater were established and the accuracy of water balance method was checked. The results show that the groundwater exploitation in the Changzhi Basin is still in the equilibrium zone of exploitation and recharge， precipitation is the main factor affecting the variation of groundwater level in that year and the amount of exploitation in that year may have an effect on the variation of groundwater level in the next year. It is more reasonable to take the variation amplitude of groundwater level as dependent variable. According to the water level control standard of the non-overdrawn area of shallow groundwater， the annual variation amplitude of enough water in the Changzhi Basin is ≥0.97 m， the annual variation amplitude of plain water is ≈0 m and the annual variation amplitude of dry water is ≤0.83 m.

Key words： precipitation; groundwater; mathematical statistical model; water equalization; water level control

長治盆地属于水资源比较匮乏的地区之一，随着社会经济的不断发展，用水需求不断增加，水资源供需矛盾日益突显，已成为制约社会经济发展、人民生活水平提高的重要因素，而且受地下水超采影响，出现了地面沉降、岩溶塌陷、地下水体污染等生态环境问题。随着最严格水资源管理制度的逐步实施与完善，仅利用地下水可开采量这一指标控制指导地下水资源的开发利用，可能存在忽视局部地区与整体开采程度不同的情况，并且开采量作为后评价指标，受用水统计水平较低、监测手段不完善等因素限制，无法定量考核水管部门实施取水总量控制的绩效，很难进行取水量量化管理。……