蒋仲安　郑登锋　曾发镔　付明福　张明星

摘   要：為有效解决油气管道安全管理过程中灰色状态的问题，基于危险源理论分析了油气管道安全风险演化过程，构建了油气管道系统安全管理模型. 该模型由安全风险辨识、安全风险预警、安全风险控制3个工作流串联而成;从危险源的事实属性出发，运用不确定性传递算法与扩展产生式规则，结合风险数据库推演出合理或近似合理的风险辨识结果;应用可拓学理论，将预警级别划分为无警（N1）、低预警（N2）、中预警（N3）、高预警（N4）4级，并对油气储运风险预警进行定性分析与量化计算;采用Java编程语言和Oracle数据库技术，设计了包括安全风险辨识、安全风险预警、安全信息化管理等功能模块的油气管道系统安全管理平台，并以某输油站场储油罐区作为工程实例验证了该模型与平台的可行性. 研究结果表明：引入不确定性理论能有效解决油气储运过程中风险辨识主观、模糊等问题;经可拓风险预警模型计算，该储罐的级别变量特征值为2.040 4，属于低预警范围，该结果与作业区实际吻合较好;采用信息化管理的手段弥补了经验式管理的缺陷，对风险数据的完整性与安全应急决策提供了良好的技术支持.

关键词：油气管道;安全风险辨识;安全风险预警;不确定性推理;可拓理论;软件开发

中图分类号：X913.4                               文献标志码：A

Study on Safety Management Model of Oil

and Gas Pipeline Based on Hazard Theory

JINAG Zhongan1，ZHENG Dengfeng1，2，ZENG Fabin1，FU Mingfu2，ZHANG Mingxing2

（1. School of Civil & Resource Engineering，University of Science and Technology Beijing，Beijing 100083，China;

2. Petrochina West Pipeline Company，Urumqi 830012，China）

Abstract：In order to effectively solve the problem of grey state in the process of oil and gas pipeline safety management， the evolution process of oil and gas pipeline safety risk is analyzed based on the risk source theory， and a safety management model for oil and gas pipeline system is constructed. The model is composed of three workflows in series： security risk identification， security risk early warning and security risk control. Based on the factual attribute of hazard source， the reasonable or approximate reasonable result of risk identification is deduced by using the uncertainty transfer algorithm and the extended generation rule in combination with the risk database. By using the extension theory， the warning level is divided into four levels： no alarm （N1）， low alarm （N2）， medium warning （N3） and high warning （N4）， and qualitative analysis and calculation of oil and gas storage and transportation risk warning are performed. Using Java programming language and Oracle database technology， a safety management platform for oil and gas pipeline system is designed， including safety risk identification， safety risk warning， safety information management and other functional modules. The research findings show that the introduction of uncertainty theory can effectively solve the subjective and fuzzy problems of risk identification in the process of oil and gas storage and transportation. According to the calculation of the extension risk warning model， the characteristic value of the level variable of the tank is 2.0404， which belongs to the low warning range. The obtained results are in good agreement with the actual work area. The method of information management makes up for the defects of empirical management and provides good technical support for the integrity of risk data and safety emergency decision.

Key words：oil and gas pipelines;safety risk identification;safety risk early warning;nondeterministic reasoning;extension theory;software development

我国的油气管道安全管理主要包括安全风险辨识和安全风险预警两个阶段，然而由于缺乏……