张永明 蒲秉华 王鹏全

摘 要：近年来全国气候异常，由强降雨引发的洪涝灾害已成为城市经济快速发展面临的严峻水问题之一。因此，以无水文资料地区——兰州新区为研究区，开展降雨径流过程模拟研究是十分必要的。首先根据黄河干支流区综合概化时程分配雨型表、《甘肃省暴雨洪水图集》，利用地方经验公式计算得到研究区不同频率的产流量;其次借鉴相关研究成果，考虑地形地貌特征、下垫面情况，结合SCS径流模型及DEM-GIS技术，划分流域片区，以流域片区中各典型水文断面为研究单元，构建适合兰州新区产流计算的模型参数，并运用LH-OAT方法对模型参数进行敏感度分析;最后通过对比地方经验公式法和SCS径流模型的产流成果，经科学分析后认为，模型模拟精度较为理想，符合兰州新区实际降雨-径流过程，推荐研究区采用SCS径流模型计算成果。

关键词：DEM-GIS技术;SCS-CN模型改进;LH-OAT;无水文资料地区;兰州新区

Abstract：In recent years， the national climate has been abnormal and floods caused by heavy rainfall have become one of the severe water problems facing the rapid economic development of cities. Therefore， it is very necessary to carry out rainfall-runoff process simulation study with the area without hydrological data， i.e. Lanzhou New District as the research area. Firstly， according to the comprehensive generalized time-history distribution rain pattern table of the main and tributary areas of the Yellow River and the “Atlas of Storm and Flood in Gansu Province”， the local empirical formula was used to calculate the flow rate of the study area at different frequencies; secondly， the relevant research results were used for reference and considering the topographic and geomorphic characteristics and underlying surface conditions， combined with SCS runoff model and DEM-GIS technology the basin area was divided， and the typical hydrological sections in the basin area were used as the research unit， the model parameters suitable for the calculation of runoff generation in Lanzhou New Area were constructed and the LH-OAT method was used to conduct sensitivity analysis on model parameters; finally， by comparing the local empirical formula method and the runoff results of the SCS runoff model， scientific analysis concluded that the model simulation accuracy is relatively ideal， which is consistent with the actual rainfall-runoff process in Lanzhou New Area. Therefore， it is recommended to use the SCS runoff model calculation results in the study area.

Key words： DEM-GIS technology; SCS-CN model improvement; LH-OAT; area without hydrological data; Lanzhou New District

“自然-社会”二元因素对水文循环规律造成了很大影响，尤其近几年，随着暴雨强度不断增大，不仅导致城市部分城区雨水集聚，而且对郊区乡镇的群众生命财产造成了不同程度的破坏，因此由强降雨引发的洪涝灾害对城市的影响也成为现今重要的研究课题之一。兰州新区径流的主要来源为流域上游的天然砂沟，洪水主要由暴雨造成，具有峰高、量集中、来势迅猛、历时短、冲刷破坏性强的特点[1]，不仅对城市居民造成了较大的影响，而且对城市基础设施构成了一定的威胁，因此兰州新区面临的防洪问题随着时间的推移将会越发严重。……