蔡蓉蓉 张红武 卜海磊

摘 要：為避免历史调查洪水误差较大对设计洪水计算的影响和我国过于保守的分析思路导致设计洪水值普遍偏大而影响黄河下游防洪体系合理运行的现状，利用黄河下游花园口站百年实测洪峰流量还原资料，通过洪水频率分析和调洪计算对花园口站在小浪底等水库运用前后的设计洪水频率及洪水过程进行研究，并结合洪峰流量相关图确定了黄河下游各站的设计洪峰流量。结果表明：花园口站天然状态和考虑小浪底等水库运用的100 a一遇设计洪峰流量分别为22 949、12 948 m3/s，黄河下游夹河滩、高村、孙口站在小浪底等水库运用后100 a一遇设计洪峰流量分别为11 730、11 050、10 100 m3/s;花园口站天然状态和考虑小浪底等水库运用的1 000 a一遇设计洪峰流量分别为32 301、20 865 m3/s，小浪底等水库运用后相应的夹河滩、高村、孙口站1 000 a一遇设计洪峰流量分别为19 125、17 100、15 350 m3/s。对比其他学者的成果和目前采用的设计洪水标准，所得结果较小，现有堤防设防标准自然相应提高，表明黄河下游防洪安全客观上存在一定余地，为解放北金堤滞洪区与明显减小东平湖滞洪区的分洪概率和分洪量提供了良好条件，有利于采用“两道防线”与生态治理、因滩施治相结合的“三滩分治”模式治理黄河，进而使黄河下游成为造福两岸人民的幸福河。

关键词：洪水频率分析;调洪计算;设计洪水;花园口站;黄河下游

Abstract：In order to avoid the influence of the potential errors of the estimated historical floods to the design flood estimation and the potential influence of the overly conservative results of the design flood estimation to the current operation of the flood control system in the lower Yellow River （LYR）， this study conducted the flood frequency analysis of 100-year restored flood peak flow series of the Huayuankou Station （HYK） to quantify the flood frequency of the HYK before and after the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir （XLDR） and estimate the corresponding design flood discharges of several stations （Jiahetan （JHT）， Gaocun （GC） and Sunkou （SK）） over the LYR by using the flood flow correlation diagrams. The results show that the calculated natural （before the XLDR） and current （after the XLDR） 100-year flood peak discharges over the HYK are 22 949 and 12 948 m3/s， while the corresponding values for the JHT， GC， and SK after the XLDR are 11 730， 11 050 and 10 100 m3/s respectively. Besides， the natural and current 1 000-year flood peak discharges of the HYK are 32 301 and 20 865 m3/s， while those values of the JHT， GC and SK after the XLDR are 19 125， 17 100 and 15 350 m3/s respectively. In comparison with the estimations of many other studies and the current design flood standards， the results shown in this study are smaller， indicating that the current levee protection standard over the LYR can provide sufficient security margins. The potential sufficient margins can provide proper conditions for the relief of the flood detention zones over the Beijindi and the reduction of the usage of the flood detention zones over the Dongping Lake and is conducive to the adoption of the “Two Lines of Defense” river management strategies combined with the ecological management and the basin specific management strategy “Three basins， Three Strategies”， thus making the LYR a “happiness river” for the benefit of the people.

Key words： flood frequency analysis; flood regulation calculation; design flood; Huayuankou Station; Lower Yellow River

1 引 言

设计洪水量级和河流治理对策的确定与具体防洪工程的布局密切相关[1-2]。……