刘晓悦 杨伟 张雪梅

摘   要：在高地应力区域，岩爆是严重影响地下工程建设的重大地质灾害，如何进行有效而准确的岩爆预测是有待解决的问题. 综合考虑指标数据的客观信息和岩爆预测中主观评判、决策的重要作用，采用改进层次分析法和基于指标相关性的CRITIC法分别获得各指标的主观权重和客观权重，并依据最小鉴别信息原理进行融合，求得综合权重.对原始云模型和预测指标分类区间进行修正，弥补原始云模型对等级区间均值过于敏感的不足，并通过云算法生成各指标的等级综合云模型.最后，通过岩爆实例验证模型的可靠性和有效性，并与熵权-云模型、CRITIC-云模型和集对分析-多维云模型对比.结果表明：该模型可以描述区间值指标的各种不确定性，快速、有效地判定岩爆烈度等级.

关键词：岩爆;预测;层次分析法;CRITC法;多维云模型

Abstract：In high terrestrial stress regions， rockburst is a major geological disaster significantly influencing the underground engineering construction. How to carry out the efficient and accurate rock burst prediction remains to be solved. In order to comprehensively consider the objective information of index data and the important role of subjective judgment and decision-making in rockburst prediction， the improved analytic hierarchy process and the CRITIC method based on index correlation are used to obtain the subjective and objective weights of each index， respectively. Fusion is carried out to obtain the comprehensive weight according to the principle of minimum discriminative information. The original cloud model and the classification interval of the predictive index are revised to make up for the excessive sensitivity of original cloud model to the average of the grade interval. A hierarchical comprehensive cloud model of each index is generated through a cloud algorithm. Finally， the reliability and validity of the model are verified by rockburst examples. The model in this paper is compared with the entropy cloud model， the CRITIC cloud model and the set pair analysis multi-dimensional cloud model. The results show that the model can not only describe the various uncertainties of interval value indicators， but also quickly and effectively determine the rockburst strength level.

Key words：rock bursts;prediction;analytic hierarchy process;CRITIC method;multidimensional cloud model

隨着隧道和地下工程的不断发展，岩爆具有突发性、难控制和破坏性大的特点，严重威胁工作人员的生命安全，耽误工期并造成巨大的经济损失，已经成为国际深部矿业工程、地下空间开发工程中急需解决的重大问题，迫切需要寻找更有效的岩爆预测方法.岩爆预测包括施工前的长期预测和施工过程中的短期预测.短期预测一般利用微震[1]、红外辐射[2]、声发射[1-2]、电磁辐射等方法对岩爆发生的确切位置和时间做出实时预警，其中微震和声发射在工程领域应用最多.施工前对岩爆存在与……