王镜惠 梅明华 刘娟

摘      要：高产区评价是煤层气高效开发的关键环节，为研究突变理论在煤层气储层高产区定量评价中的可行性，在系统梳理煤层气高产区主控因素基础上，建立了高产区评价指标体系，并根据突变理论计算了高产区评价指标（S），将其与实际日产气量进行了对比分析。结果表明：从煤层含气性、解吸效率和产出能力3个方面建立的高产区评价指标体系能够有效预测高产区。根据突变理论计算得到高产区评价指标（S）与日产气量具有较强的相关性，单井日产气量随煤层气高产区评价指标（S）增加而增加，当高产区评价指标（S）大于0.6时，日产气量一般在1 000 m3以上。因此利用突变理论能够有效预测煤层气储层高产区，该理论为煤层气高产区预测提供了有效的手段。

关  键  词：煤层气;高产区;定量评价;应用

中图分类号：TE35      文献标识码： A      文章编号： 1671-0460（2020）08-1788-05

Abstract： High production zones evaluation is a key link for the efficient development of coalbed methane. In order to study the feasibility of the application of catastrophe theory in the quantitative evaluation of the high production zones of coalbed methane reservoir， the index system for the evaluation of high production zones was established on the basis of the systematic analysis of the main controlling factors of high production zones. The evaluation index of high production zones， denoted as S， was calculated based on catastrophe theory，and the value was compared with the actual daily production. The results show that the evaluation index system of high production zones， including coal seam gas bearing， desorption efficiency and output capacity， can effectively predict high producing zones. The evaluation index of high production zones calculated by catastrophe theory has a strong correlation with the daily gas production，and the daily gas production increases with the increase of the evaluation index S. When the value of the evaluation index is greater than 0.6， the daily gas production is generally above 1 000 m3. Therefore， the catastrophe theory can be used to predict the high production zones of coalbed methane reservoir effectively， which provides an effective means for the prediction of high production zones coalbed methane reservoir.

Key words： Catastrophe theory; Coalbed methane; High-production zone; Quantitative evaluation; Application

煤层气作为边际资源，具有单井产量低、开发效益差的特点。煤层气开发要获得较好的经济效益必须能有效地识别煤层气的高产区，在高产区进行规模建产并避开低产区[1]。部分学者就高产区评价方法进行了研究，宋岩等认为煤层气富集高产区富集机理和地质评价方法对煤层气勘探选区至关重要，提出了富集不一定高产，指出应该通过构建沁水盆地南部煤层气富集高产模型开展高产区评价[2]。娄剑青等认为影响煤层气产量的主要因素是煤层渗透率、煤层厚度及含气量，提出了利用定量评价指标方式对煤层气富集高产区进行评价[3]。……