乔建刚 柯秋雨

摘要 山区干线公路受地形条件限制，道路线形指标变化明显，在山区干线公路总里程与交通量高速增长情况下，交通安全问题日益凸显。结合山区干线公路系统的复杂性及灰色特点，从人、车、路、环境4方面对山区干线公路交通事故的影响因素进行分析，选择山区干线公路交通事故的影响因素为因素行为序列，事故数、死亡人数，受伤人数等3项指标为特征行为序列，以山区干线公路事故数据为例，结合灰色关联度法与熵权法计算交通事故影响因素的综合关联度，进行关联系数差值分析得出交通事故主要影响因素为超速行驶、纵坡坡度、弯坡组合、小半径路段、坡长、视距不良及速度差大等。以期为山区干线公路交通事故防治工作提供资料。

关 键 词 山区干线公路;交通安全;灰色关联度;熵权法;综合关联度

中图分类号 U492.8;X951     文献标志码 A

Research on influencing factors of highway accident

in mountainous arterial highway based on grey correlation analysis and entropy weight method

QIAO Jiangang1， KE Qiuyu1，2

（1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation， Hebei University of Technology， Tianjin 300401， China; 2. Traffic Construction Project Quality Supervision Station， Changzhi， Shanxi 046100， China）

Abstract Restricted by the terrain conditions， road alignment index of mountain roads is obviously changed. Under the condition of the rapid growth of total mileages and traffic volumes of the trunk road in mountainous area， traffic safety problems have become increasingly prominent. Combining with the complexity and gray characteristic of the highway system in mountainous area， the main factors of traffic accidents on mountainous highway are analyzed from the aspects of people， vehicles， roads and environment. The factors influencing the selection of traffic accidents in mountainous highway are the sequence of factors and behaviors， the number of accidents ， the number of deaths and the wounded were taken as the sequence of characteristic behaviors. Taking the data of highway accidents in mountainous area as an example，the comprehensive correlation calculation of traffic accident factors is based on grey relational analysis method and entropy method . The correlation coefficient difference analysis shows that the main influencing factors of the traffic accident are overspeed ， longitudinal slope， curved slope combination， small radius section， slope length， bad sight distance and large differences of speed. We hope that it can provide information for the prevention and control of traffic accidents in mountainous arterial highways.

Key words mountainous arterial highway; traffic safety; gray relational degree; entropy weight method; comprehensive association degree

0 引言

WHO發布的交通事故报告显示，我国交通事故致死率为27.3%，居世界首位。相关资料表明，我国70%以上群死群伤的重特大交通事故发生在山区干线公路，其中国道与省道交通事故占有相当高比重[1]。山区干线公路事故多发性与严重性已成为限制山区经济发展的重要原因。各国专家学者纷纷对事故影响因素展开了深入研究：2010年Clarke等[2]通过分析英国交通事故数据，得出弯道、醉酒驾驶与英国死亡交通事故率显著相关。2011年Andersson等[3]研究气候变化对英国西米德兰兹郡冬季交通事故率的影响，指出气温、冰冻天数对交通事故率影响显著。……