阿西特·K.比斯瓦斯　塞西莉亚·托塔哈达 　杜磊

Soft power is the ability of a country to shape other countries’ views， attitudes， perceptions and actions without force or coercion. Exercising soft power， a state can attract supporters and partners towards its policies， views and actions. Its importance has been known for centuries， but the term was coined by Joseph Nye in the late 1980s.

The soft power of a country is dependent on many factors， including its economic performance， global image and international reputation.

It is often erroneously believed that China is a relative latecomer to soft power. But China has exercised soft power in different ways to the West， ways that have often been missed by Western experts， despite China historically having influenced large parts of Asia with its culture， knowledge and trade.

In contrast to the strident “America First” diplomacy of US President Donald Trump， China projects itself as a friendly， cooperative， generous and responsible country， enhancing its soft power.

Communicating China’s message to the world

In 2014， President Xi Jinping said， “We should increase China’s soft power， give a good Chinese narrative， and better communicate China’s message to the world.”

Xi followed this up with a powerful speech during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In it， he proposed “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era” and the “realization of the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation.” This， Xi proclaimed， will offer “a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence; and it offers Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach to solving the problems of mankind.”

Among the 2020-35 goals to be attained， Xi outlined steps to be taken to enhance China’s soft power， and the greater appeal of its culture. “We will improve our capacity for engaging in international communication so as to tell China’s stories well， present a true， multi-dimensional and panoramic view of China， and enhance our country’s soft power.”

China has accumulated considerable soft power through its long history， culture and philosophy. These have been complemented by its phenomenal economic growth over the past three decades. In 1980， its per capita GDP in purchasing power parity terms was $310. In 2017， this is expected to be $16，624， an increase of 53.6 times in only 37 years. During this period， it has lifted over 800 million people out of poverty. The world’s millennium development goals would not have been met without China’s performance.

China has also remarkably improved its infrastructure. In 2002， it had no high-speed rail network. By 2016， the network was 22，000 kilometers， accounting for 60 percent of the global high-speed railways. In 2020， this network will cover 30，000 km. It will connect 80 percent of all cities of more than one million people. By 2030， the network is expected to increase to 45，000 km.

Its unprecedented economic growth has given China enormous soft power. Politicians all over the world would like to replicate China’s economic growth and acquire its soft power.

China is playing major roles in other areas. Consider research and development. According to UNESCO， the R&D expenditure of high-income countries fell from 88 percent of the global total to 69.3 percent from 1996 to 2013. China alone filled this gap， increasing its share from a paltry 2.5 percent to 19.6 percent in 17 years. Recently， China’s average annual R&D expenditure growth has been 18.3 percent， compared to the anaemic growth rate in upper and middle income countries of 1.4 percent.

Increased educational and research activities have ensured that the number of foreign students in China are increasing rapidly. In 2016， China had 442，431 international students， a 35 percent increase over 2012. China now ranks third in attracting foreign students after the United States and the United Kingdom. With Chinese universities climbing up the global rankings， their rapid internationalization， policies encouraging foreign students to study in China， and affordability of study and living costs compared to the West， China will soon become the top destination for international students.

Of 5 million international students pursuing higher education courses outside their home countries， nearly 25 percent are Chinese. In 2016， American universities attracted 330，000 Chinese students， followed by 166，000 from India. The increasing numbers of Chinese students abroad and foreign students in China will further enhance its soft power.

In terms of culture， Italy， with 53， has the largest number of UNESCO World Heritage sites， China comes next with 52. Some 138 million tourists visited China in 2016. Similarly， 122 million Chinese visitors went abroad in 2016.

US’ soft power is declining under Trump

China’s economic success， massive infrastructural development， academic and research progress， cultural heritage and success in sports will continue to increase its soft power in the future. In contrast， the United States’ soft power is now in retreat with its “America first” policy， anti-globalization， anti-immigration， isolationism， anti-trade and anti-environmental policies. The policy differences between the two economic superpowers are now stark.

China will further increase its soft power through forward-looking actions and investments under its Belt and Road Initiative， the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region， the Yangtze River Economic Belt， as well as through the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank.

Xi’s message to the world is a new approach which can facilitate “state-to-state relations with communication， not confrontation， with partnership and not alliances.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative and other major development initiatives， China expects “to achieve policy， infrastructure， trade， financial and people-to-people connectivity and thus build a new platform for international cooperation to create new drivers of shared development.”

During the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Vietnam， Trump reconfirmed his “America first” policy， stating the US will pursue only bilateral trade agreements that are “fair” and “reciprocal.” He did not address who will define what is fair. For a transactional， zero-sum， and “America first” president， multilateral trade agreements do not work， nor does the World Trade Organization. These will further decrease the soft power of the US.

In Vietnam， Xi noted globalization is an “irreversible historical trend，” and championed multilateral trading regimes. “We should uphold multilateralism， pursue shared growth through consultation and collaboration， forge closer partnerships and build a shared future for mankind.” Xi spoke of the digital economy， artificial intelligence and quantum science. He presented a vision of the future that is interconnected， comprehensive and win-win for all countries. He noted that development is a journey with no end， and invited “more countries to ride the fast train of Chinese development.”

China’s soft power is likely to increase significantly during the coming decades.

軟实力指一国无须通过武力或胁迫而能影响他国观点、态度、感受乃至行为的能力。通过施展软实力，一国能为其政策、观点与行为赢得支持与合作。数世纪以来，软实力的重要性已为人所知，但直到20世纪80年代，这一术语才被约瑟夫·奈提出。

一国的软实力取决于很多因素，包括其经济水平、全球形象与国际声望。

人们经常错误地认为中国在软实力方面相对起步较晚。但是，中国已通过不同方式向西方施展了软实力，尽管从历史上来看，中国文化、知识与贸易已经影响了亚洲绝大部分地区，但这些方式常为西方专家所不察。

与美国总统特朗普推行强硬的 “美国优先”外交政策迥然不同，中国展示了友好、合作、慷慨与负责的国家形象，提升了软实力。

向世界传播中国声音

2014年，习近平提出，“我们要提高国家文化软实力，讲好中国故事，传播好中国声音。”

在中国共产党第19次全国代表大会上，习近平发表了重要讲话，进一步提出了“中国特色社会主义新时代”与“实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦”，习近平表示，这“给世界上那些既希望加快发展又希望保持自身独立性的国家和民族提供了全新选择，为解决人类问题贡献了中国智慧和中国方案。”

中国2020年至2035年奋斗目标之一是增强国家软实力与文化吸引力，习近平概述了其步骤：“要推进国际传播能力建设，讲好中国故事，向世界展现真实、立体、全面的中国，提高国家文化软实力。”

中国通过其悠久的历史、文化与理念，积累起了强大的软实力。过去30年来中国经济的巨大发展增强了这些软实力。1980年，中国的人均国内生产总值（按购买力平价计算）为 310美元。2017年，这一数值有望达到16624美元，仅在37年内就增长了53.6倍。在这一阶段，中国使超過8亿的人口脱贫。假如没有中国的成就，全球千年发展目标就无法实现。

中国的基础建设成果也十分瞩目。2002年，中国还没有建成高速铁路网。到了2016年，中国的高速铁路网总里程已达2.2万公里，占全球高速铁路网的60%;2020年，预计将达3万公里，覆盖全国80%百万以上人口的城市;到2030年，将有望拓展到4.5万公里。

史无前例的经济增长赋予了中国巨大的软实力。全世界的政界人士都希望复制中国经济的增长模式，获得这样的软实力。

在其他领域，中国正发挥着关键作用。如在研发领域，联合国教科文组织统计得出，1996年至2013年，高收入国家的研发费用全球占比从88%降到了69.3%。中国一国之力便填补了这一缺口。17年间，中国的研发费用占比从微不足道的2.5%提高到了19.6%。近年来，中国的研发投入年均增长率达到18.3%，而中高收入国家只有1.4%的疲软增长。

教育与研究活动不断增加，确保了来中国的海外学生数量快速增长。2016年，来中国的留学生数量为442431人，相比2012年增加了35%。在吸引海外学生方面，2016年，中国排名第三，仅次于美国与英国。中国大学国际排名的攀升和高速的国际化，吸引留学生的政策，以及较西方国家低廉的学费与生活开支，使中国不久将成为国际学生的首选国家。

全球到海外接受高等教育的500万留学生中，近25%来自中国。2016年，美国大学吸引到了33万名中国学生，其次是16.6万印度学生。海外中国留学生与国内外国留学生数量的不断增长将进一步提升中国软实力。

在文化层面，意大利有53处经联合国教科文组织认定的世界文化遗产，数量最多，中国则以52处位居第二。2016年，中国接待了约1.38亿游客。同样，中国的出境游人次达1.22亿。

特朗普治下的美国软实力正在下降

中国的经济成就、大规模基础建设的发展、学术与研究的进步、文化遗产以及体育成就将在未来持续提升其软实力。相比之下，美国的软实力却因“美国优先”政策、反全球化、反移民、孤立主义、逆贸易与反环保政策而下降。两个经济超级大国政策上的差异十分显著。

中国将通过“一带一路”倡议下的前瞻性行动和投资、京津冀地区的协同发展、长江经济带的打造、亚洲基础设施投资银行以及金砖国家新开发银行的建立，进一步增强其软实力。

习近平向世界传达的信息可促进国与国交往走上“对话而不对抗、结伴而不结盟”的新路。通过“一带一路”倡议与其他重大发展项目，中国希望“努力实现政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通、民心相通，打造国际合作新平台，增添共同发展新动力”。

在越南召开的亚太经济合作组织领导人会议上，特朗普重申了他的“美国优先”政策，声称美国将只追求 “公平”与“互惠互利”的双边贸易协定。他没有提到谁来定义什么是公平。对一个只讲交易、追求零和博弈与“美国优先”的总统来说，多边贸易协定行不通，世界贸易组织也无法起作用。这些因素将进一步削弱美国的软实力。

习近平在越南指出，全球化是“不可逆转的时代潮流”，他倡导多边贸易体制。“坚持多边主义，谋求共商共建共享，建立紧密伙伴关系，构建人类命运共同体。”习近平谈到了数字经济、人工智能和量子科学，描绘了一幅各国互联、全面、共赢的未来图景。他指出，发展是一场永无止境的旅程，并邀请“更多国家搭乘中国发展的快车”。

未来几十年，中国的软实力可能会显著增强。

（译者单位：浙江大学外国语言文化与国际交流学院）