王岳　朱震锋

摘要：基于对黑龙江森工林区经济转型发展现状的系统性描述分析，借助林区2005-2016年相关统计数据，通过构建林区经济转型发展动力模型，旨在实现森工林区经济转型发展动力因素有效识别及驱动效应定量研究。研究得到：产业结构水平对林区经济转型发展的驱动效应最为显著，这与其背后涵盖的科学产业布局、产业间资源优化配置等内容密切相关;资本要素、劳动力要素对林区经济转型发展具有积极驱动效应，但不及产业结构水平;资本要素的驱动效应大于劳动力要素，体现出当前林区接续替代产业发展对资本投入的紧迫需求，而林区劳动力资源质量不佳和结构不均衡等成为制约其对林区经济转型发展推动作用的重要原因。综上所述，黑龙江森工林区经济转型发展受到来自产业结构水平、资本及劳动力要素投入等一系列因素不同程度的驱动作用和影响，并结合研究结论及林区客观实际提出加快林区经济转型发展的可行路径。

关键词：森工林区;经济转型;动力因素;路径

中图分类号：F326.27文献标识码：A文章编号：1006-8023（2019）03-0026-06

Dynamic Factors Analysis of Economic Transformation

and Development in Heilongjiang Forest Industry Area

WANG Yue1，ZHU Zhenfeng2

（1.Heilongjiang Academy of Forestry， Harbin 150081;

2.College of Economics and Management， Northeast Forestry University， Harbin 150040）

Abstract：Based on the systematic description of the economic transformation and development of Heilongjiang forest industry area，thin paper realized the dynamic factors identification and the quantitative study of the driving effects with the dynamic model and the statistical data from 2005 to 2016. The results show that the industrial structure level has the most significant driving effect on the economic transformation and development， which is closely related to the scientific industrial layout and the optimal allocation of resources between industries. The capital and labor factors have positive effects on the economic transformation of forest areas， but lower than the industrial structure level; the driving effect of capital factors is greater than the labor factor， which clarifies the urgent demand for capital investment in the development of alternative industries in the current forest area， and the problems of poor labor resources and unbalanced structure in the forest area are serious. It has restricted its promotion role in the economic transformation and development of forest areas. In summary， the economic transformation and development of Heilongjiang Forest Industry Region is driven and influenced by a series of factors ranging from industrial structure level， capital and labor factor input， and combined with the research conclusions and the objective reality of the forest area， it puts forward a feasible path to accelerate the economic transformation and development of the forest area.

Keywords：Forest industry area; economic transformation; dynamic factors; path

0引言

2014年黑龍江省重点国有林区率先试点实施全面停止天然林商业性采伐政策（后简称禁伐政策），[1]随着禁伐政策在东北、内蒙古等重点国有林区逐步深化实施，对林区社会经济转型发展的多重效应也日渐显著，其中首当其冲的即是对林区加快以产业结构调整为核心的经济转型的倒逼效应。……