李宛谕 黄显峰 阎玮 方国华 刘展志

摘要：洪水资源利用在产生效益的同时，也会带来风险，有必要加强洪水利用风险评价研究，最大限度降低洪水资源利用的负面影响。对调水工程洪水资源利用风险因素进行识别，构建风险评价指标体系，从蓄水工程、输水工程、提水工程三个方面展开评价。采用层次分析法计算主观权重，熵权法和投影寻踪法计算客观权重，引入云模型计算风险指标的隶属度，最后得到洪水资源利用的风险等级。以南水北调东线工程江苏段为实例，对丰、平、枯三种典型年的洪水资源利用风险进行了评价，验证了评价方法的有效性与适用性。

关键词：洪水资源利用；风险评价；云模型；熵权；投影寻踪；调水工程

中图分类号：TV213 文献标志码：A 文章编号：

16721683（2018）05005709

Risk assessment of flood resources utilization in water transfer project based on combined weight and cloud model

LI Wanyu1，HUANG Xianfeng1，YAN Wei2，FANG Guohua1，LIU Zhanzhi1

（

1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing 210098，China；2.Jiangsu Water Source of the East Route of SouthtoNorth Water Diversion Project Ltd.，Co.，Nanjing 210029，China

）

Abstract：

The utilization of flood resources will produce benefits，but it will also bring risks.Therefore，it is necessary to study the risk assessment of flood utilization so as to minimize the negative effects of flood resources utilization.We identified the risk factors of flood resources utilization in a water diversion project，and constructed an index system for risk assessment based on three aspects： water storage projects，water conveyance projects，and water pumping projects.The subjective weight was calculated by the analytic hierarchy process，and the objective weight was calculated by the entropy weight method and the projection pursuit method.The cloud model was adopted to calculate the membership degree of the risk index.Then，the risk grade of flood resources utilization can be obtained.The above method was applied to the Jiangsu Province segment of the East Route of the SouthtoNorth Water Transfer Project.The risks of flood resources utilization in wet，normal，and dry years were evaluated，and the validity and applicability of the evaluation method were verified.

Key words：

utilization of flood resources；risk assessment；cloud model；entropy weight；projection pursuit；water transfer project

近年來，社会经济快速发展，水资源供需矛盾加剧。跨流域调水工程能在一定程度上缓解水资源短缺问题，但调水一般是在非汛期进行，如果充分利用汛期的洪水资源， 就能增加我国水资源可利用量，进一步解决问题。以南水北调东线工程为例，加强对洪水资源的利用和管理，可以提高东线水资源的利用率，为调水沿线带来巨大的经济效益。但洪水资源具有双重属性，带来效益的同时也存在风险，为了安全利用洪水资源，有必要对洪水资源利用进行风险分析。

国外学者在洪水资源利用方面的研究较少，侧重于对洪水风险、洪水灾害及损失的研究，Hall等[1]将MC方法应用到洪水风险评估中，取得了较好的效果。……