钟姗姗 刘鹂

摘要：根据水资源安全内涵，构建湖南省水资源安全评价指标体系，采用水资源安全综合指数辨识2007-2015年湖南省水资源安全状态；根据短板要素理论，构建湖南省水资源安全评价体系多木桶模型，采用均衡度指标度量各桶片（指标）的长度差异，将指标分为优势要素、限制性要素和短板要素，辨识系统短板。从纵向（年际）和横向（指标）比较分析湖南省水资源安全现状与发展趋势。结果表明：（1）湖南省水资源安全系统，2011年为较不安全状态，2015年为较安全状态，其余年份为临界安全状态，2007-2015年间湖南省水资源安全呈现前期形势较为严峻、后期矛盾缓和的特点；（2）绘制湖南省水资源安全短板要素图，甄别出防洪治涝形势严峻、废水及有机污染物排放量较多和工农业及生活用水量较大是当前影响湖南省水资源安全的主要短板要素。

关键词：水资源安全；安全状态；短板要素；多木桶结构；湖南省

中图分类号：TV213 文献标志码：A 文章编号：

16721683（2018）05005007

Water resources security state of Hunan Province during 20072015 and the shortboard factors

ZHONG Shanshan1，2，LIU Li1

（

1.School of Hydraulic Engineering，Changsha University of Science and Technology，Changsha 410004，China；2.Key Laboratory of WaterSediment Sciences and Water Disaster Prevention of Hunan Province，Changsha 410004，China

）

Abstract：

First，based on the connotation of water resources security，we built an evaluation index system for water resources security of Hunan province，and determined the water resources security state during 20072015 with the integral index of water resources security.Second，we built a multibucket model for the evaluation system based on the shortboard factors theory，and measured the length difference between bucket staves （indexes） with the "equilibrium degree" index.The indexes were divided into dominant factors，restrictive factors，and shortboard factors.Then we compared and analyzed the status quo and development trend of water resources security of Hunan province from longitudinal （interannual） and lateral （indexbased） perspectives.The results indicated： （1） The water resources security system of Hunan province was in a somewhat unsafe state in 2011，and was in a somewhat safe state in 2015，and was in a critically safe state in the other years.The water resources security of Hunan province during 20072015 was in a severe situation in the earlier stage and it eased up in the later stage.（2） We drew a shortboard factors diagram of water resources security of Hunan province，and found that the main shortboard factors were severe flood control situation，large amounts of waste water and organic pollutants emissions，and large consumption of water for industrial，agricultural，and domestic use.

Key words：

water resources security；security state；shortboard factors；multibucket structure；Hunan province

水資源安全问题是人类水资源可持续开发利用中面临的重大挑战。区域水资源安全是指一个国家或地区拥有的水资源能够保障该地区社会经济及生态环境可持续健康发展[12]，关系着社会经济的平稳发展和人类生活的有序进行，同时也决定着一个国家或地区的安全与稳定。因此，分析评价区域水资源安全状态，对实现水资源合理配置、确保环境经济社会协调发展具有重要的现实意义。

水资源安全状态的度量是水资源安全问题研究中的重要领域，Henry J.F.Penn[3]构建了四维水资源安全度量框架：可利用性、可获取性、实用性和稳定性；……