常奂宇 翟家齐 赵勇 李海红 王庆明 韩静艳

摘要：基于北京546年的旱澇资料，通过MannKendall检验、滑动t检验等方法，分析得到不同旱涝变化趋势，并使用马尔可夫链研究了整体和每个趋势各状态间的转移概率以及重现期。研究表明北京地区旱涝灾害具有明显的趋势性，整体呈现“涝-旱-涝-旱”波动，局部有旱涝急转的现象。1470-1579年整体偏涝，转向偏涝年份的概率最高（313%）；1580-1768年整体偏旱，转向正常年份的概率最高（343%），且容易发生多年连旱；1769-1898年整体偏涝，转向正常年份的概率最高（415%），且旱涝灾害发生概率基本相同；1899-1961年由涝转旱，转向偏旱年份的概率最高（351%）；1962-2015年整体偏旱，转向偏旱概率最高（297%），且容易发生多年连旱。对546年旱涝整体分析，旱涝转移趋向于正常，但整体处于一个偏旱的状态。

关键词：旱涝变化；趋势；马尔可夫链；转移概率；重现期；北京

中图分类号：P467 文献标志码：A 文章编号：

16721683（2018）05002708

Analysis on evolution of droughts and floods in Beijing over the last 546 years based on Markov chain

CHANG Huanyu1，ZHAI Jiaqi1，ZHAO Yong1，LI Haihong1，WANG Qingming1，HAN Jingyan1，2

（

1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin，China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China；2.Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources，Department of Hydraulic Engineering，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084，China）

Abstract：

Based on the data of droughts and floods over the last 546 years in Beijing，we obtained different trends of floods and droughts using MannKendall test and moving ttest，and we used Markov chain to study the transfer probability and recurrence of different states in each trend.The study showed that the drought and flood disasters in Beijing manifested obvious tendencies.The overall trend was "flooddroughtflooddrought" fluctuation，with rapid shifts between drought and flood at some times.During 14701579，Beijing was prone to flood and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial flood year （313%）.During 15801768，Beijing was prone to drought and had the highest probability of transferring to a normal year （343%）；it was also very likely to have continuous droughts.During 17691898，Beijing was prone to flood and had the highest probability of transferring a normal year （415%）；the occurrence probabilities of drought and flood disasters were basically the same.During 18991961，Beijing transferred from flood to drought and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial drought year （351%）.During 19622015，Beijing was prone to drought，and had the highest probability of transferring to a partial drought year （297%）；it was also very likely to have continuous droughts.The overall analysis of 546 years of droughts and floods showed that the transfer of droughts and floods tended to be normal，but the overall situation was partial drought.

Key words：

variation of drought and flood；trend；Markov chain；transfer probability；recurrence；Beijing

旱涝灾害对于经济社会发展影响巨大，自1999年以来北京市遭遇连续十几年的干旱，由于其持续时间长、影响范围广、强度大，使得平原区地下水超采严重，水资源形势变得尤为严峻。近年来，对于北京以及京津冀地区旱涝变化特征的研究颇多，李双双等[1]分析了近54年北京旱涝变化特征，得到极端旱涝时间增多，以及自然因素相比人类活动对旱涝变化影响更大；方宏阳等[2]对京津冀50多年降水数据进行分析，得到北京为旱涝交替高发区；不少学者也根据丰富的历史极端气象事件资料对区域内百年尺度的旱涝变化规律进行研究，如王文鑫等[3]得到海河流域16世纪初期至17世纪初期为涝转旱，17世纪中后期至19世纪初为旱转涝，20世纪初又进入相对干旱的时期；……