田福昌 赵胤懋 苑希民

摘要：海南省塔洋河下游段降水丰富，洪水灾害频发，急需构建该河段洪水演进分析模型，为科学防洪减灾措施制定提供支持。基于塔洋河下游河段实测断面资料与高精度DEM，采用MIKE FLOOD建立河段一维水动力模型和两岸洪水威胁区二维水动力模型并实现两者的实时动态耦合，模拟分析下游河段50年一遇洪水漫溢演进过程及淹没风险，计算不同时段内洪水淹没范围和水深分布，并从水量平衡和流场分布等角度对计算结果进行合理性分析。结果表明，所建模型能够有效模拟塔洋河下游洪水演进过程及风险分布特征，计算结果较为合理可靠，可为区域防汛指挥、洪水风险管理与防洪预案制定等提供重要基础信息。

关键词：塔洋河；洪水风险；水动力模型；洪水演进；MIKE FLOOD

中图分类号：TV122 文献标志码：A 文章编号：

16721683（2018）05001605

Flood routing analysis of the lower reaches of Tayang river based on MIKE FLOOD

TIAN Fuchang，ZHAO Yinmao，YUAN Ximin

（

State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety， Tianjin University， Tianjin 300072， China）

Abstract：

The rainfall in the lower reaches of the Tayang river is abundant and frequently causes flood disasters. It is urgent to build a flood routing analysis model for the river to provide support for the formulation of scientific flood control and disaster mitigation measures. Based on the measured section data and highprecision DEM of the lower reaches of the Tayang river， we established a 1D hydrodynamic model of the river section and a 2D hydrodynamic model of the flood threat zones on both banks by MIKE FLOOD， and realized the realtime dynamic coupling of the two. Then we analyzed the evolution process and inundation risk of a 50year flood in the lower reaches， calculated the inundation range and water depth distribution in different periods， and analyzed the rationality of the calculation results using water balance analysis and flow field distribution. The results showed that the model can effectively simulate the process of flood routing and risk distribution in the lower reaches of the Tayang River. The calculation results were reasonable and reliable， and can provide important basic information for regional flood control command， flood risk management， and flood control plan formulation.

Key words：

Tayang river； flood risk； hydrodynamic model； flood routing； MIKE FLOOD

近年，全球極端天气频繁出现，洪水灾害严重威胁临河城镇的发展。为减少城镇发展过程中的洪涝灾害影响，结合“洪涝风险管理”理念的洪水灾害风险分析是防洪减灾非工程措施发展的重要方向之一。

关于洪水灾害风险理论研究与实践，最早由国外学者发起。20世纪40年代，由美国吉尔伯特·怀特（Gilbert F.White ）首次提出洪灾风险分析理论[1]，之后于20世纪80年代引起全球学者广泛关注，并在洪水演进分析领域得到应用实践。Chua等[2]运用二维水动力模型模拟分析了莱茵河溃堤洪水在沿线洪泛区域内的淹没情况；Vacondio等[3]运用光滑粒子水动力数值模型模拟了开边界条件下的洪水浅水运动。……