By Sudeshna Sarkar & Lu Yan

For more than six decades， Jose Vieira Loguercio had never made a trip abroad except for two brief forays to southern neighbor Argentina. The son of a trade unionist railway worker， the Brazilian had joined the leftist protest movement in 1964 and never had the luxury of going abroad.

But last month， the 68-year-old spent nearly two days fl ying over two continents to arrive in Chengdu in southwest China to attend an event that brought together over 120 people of diverse backgrounds from 18 countries.

“I am curious about the Belt and Road Initiative，” said Loguercio， presently a researcher at the Mauricio Grabois Foundation in Brazil. “I know about the fi rst phase and I want to know more about the second one.”

Role of think tanks

The initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 was one of the three focuses at the Global Think Tanks Forum 2018 held in Chengdu on November 22-23 under the aegis of the China International Publishing Group （CIPG） and the Chengdu Municipal Government. In his keynote speech， Guo Weimin， Vice Minister of the State Council Information Offi ce， outlined the reason for the brainstorming by international relation and economy experts， academics， activists and scholars. The world today faces crises of populism， protectionism and unilateralism， compounded by population explosion， climate change and unbalanced development. “Global governance needs the joint efforts of all countries and regions and their experts to promote exchange and provide a platform for the prosperity of all humanity，” he said.

John Ross， former Director of Economic and Business Policy of London and current senior fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies， Renmin University of China， enlarged the crucial role of think tanks， which can cooperate globally where governments may not and exchange factual information so that those in authority do not act on wrong ideas and misjudgment that could have “catastrophic consequences.”

Ross had examples from the past to show the devastation caused by such “miscalculations：” Japan believed if it invaded China， China would not fight back， which was a “catastrophically wrong assessment.”In Germany， Adolf Hitler miscalculated the number of advanced tanks the Soviet Union possessed. “If he had known， he would have never invaded the Soviet Union，” Ross said. He recollected the wisdom of a Soviet dip- lomat： “You cant stop a great power from acting on its own interests. The danger is， it can work on false information.”

Today， another miscalculation has the power to trigger a crisis. U.S. President Donald Trumps claim that the U.S. economy was witnessing very strong growth was actually “a great deal of propaganda， not facts，”Ross said. For five decades， the U.S. economy has been slowing down and its peak growth under Trump at 4.1 percent was the lowest under any American president since World War II. U.S.-projected data， based on seasonal estimates， was “grossly exaggerated.” The actual facts of the U.S. economy were crucial for global governance and trade， since Americas dominant role in global governance was based on its economic performance.

Though Trump was not present， his shadow lay on the forum. His actions were on every lip—his going against World Trade Organization rules and unleashing trade wars； withdrawing from major multilateral pacts like the Paris Agreement， the Iran Nuclear Deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement； and giving short shrift to bilateral commitments like the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia that had put the brakes on the two countries nuclear missiles race.

“Many developed countries are now trying to escape from their duties and responsibilities， abandoning the global governance system established after World War II and retreating from the rules they themselves created，” Zhou Mingwei， President of Translators Association of China， said.

Against such a backdrop， it was a common voice at the conference that the world order established under U.S. leadership with Western-dominated institutions， such as the UN， NATO， International Monetary Fund and World Bank， needed reform. A wide range of speakers regarded the Belt and Road Initiative as a more equitable blueprint for global development.

“The old order has ceased，” Eiichi Shindo， Director General of the Belt and Road Initiative Japan Research Center， said. “The Anglo-American global governance doesnt work any more.” While the Marshall Plan sought to maximize production centers to increase the GDP of Western Europe and the U.S.， the Belt and Road Initiative， on the other hand， was seeking to maximize connectivity and help underdeveloped and landlocked countries to end poverty and terrorism.“The Marshall Plan was a win-lose game， the Belt and Road Initiative is a win-win game，”Shindo said.

Opportunities of cooperation

The Chengdu conference， like the Belt and Road Initiative， called for greater cooperation. “We need to have more cooperation with people who disagree with us，” Zhou said.