潘翔 沈振中 甘磊 王凯 卿文武 何芸

摘要：大坝除险加固效果评价指标包括时效性指标和非时效性指标两类，时效性指标的量化是进行大坝除险加固效果定量评价的关键。针对现有大坝除险加固评价体系中时效性指标量化理论较为缺失的问题，基于无量纲化的定量时效性指标，研究了大坝性态变化以及指标等级变化对时效性指标评价的影响，推导了安全度和等级提升系数的公式，进而建立了时效性指标量化模型。以江西某水库除险加固为例，分析除险加固前、后各时效性指标的变化情况，并对模型的合理性进行了验证。结果表明，应用本文建立的大坝除险加固时效性指标量化模型可合理评价除险加固过程中的时效性指标。

关键词：大坝；除险加固；时效性指标；量化模型；安全度；等级提升系数

中图分类号：TV3文献标志码：A文章编号：16721683（2018）03015507

Quantitative model of timeefficient indexes for evaluation of reinforcement effect of dam

PAN Xiang1，SHEN Zhenzhong1，GAN Lei1，WANG Kai2，QING Wenwu3，HE Yun3

（1.State Key Laboratory of HydrologyWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering，Hohai University，

Nanjing 210098，China；2.Jiangsu Surveying and Design Institute of Water Resources Co.，Ltd，

Yangzhou 225127，China；3.Yichun Water Conservancy Bureau，Yichun 336000，China）

Abstract：The basic indexes for evaluation of a dam′s reinforcement effect include timeefficient indexes and nontimeefficient indexes.The quantification of timeefficient indexes is the key to quantitative evaluation of the reinforcement effect of a dam.Since there is a lack of theory on quantification of timeefficient indexes in the reinforcement evaluation system of dams，in this paper we studied the influence of the change of dam behavior and the change of index level on the evaluation of timeefficient indexes，deduced the formulas for safety degree and grade promotion coefficient on the basis of the dimensionless quantitative timeefficient indexes，and then established a quantitative model of timeefficient indexes.The reinforcement of a reservoir in Jiangxi was taken as an example.We analyzed the changes of the timeefficient evaluation indexes before and after reinforcement，and verified the rationality of the model.The results indicated that the timeefficient indexes can be reasonably evaluated by the proposed quantitative model of timeefficient indexes.

Key words：dam；reinforcement；timeefficient index；quantitative model；safety degree；grade promotion coefficient

近年，我國基本完成了水库的新一轮除险加固[1]，消除了绝大部分水库的安全隐患，但是仍有一些水库大坝在加固后发生险情[2]，甚至发生溃坝事故，如山西曲亭水库，新疆联丰水库等。因此，进行水库大坝除险加固效果评价是十分必要的。

大坝除险加固效果评价是一项复杂的系统工程，涉及到指标体系构建、指标量化和综合评价等。针对于水库大坝除险加固效果评价体系研究，吴焕新[3]提出了基于加速遗传的层次分析法（AGAAHP），定量评价了病险水库除险加固治理效果的综合评价体系。王宁[4]等提出了基于模拟退火层次分析法（SAAHP），构建了病险水库除险加固评价体系。……