苗正伟 徐利岗 韩会玲

摘要：基于京津冀地区22个气象站 1961-2015年的逐月气候资料，采用气候倾向率、MannKendall突变检测、Morlet小波分析、反距离权重插值（IDW）等方法，研究了近55 a来京津冀地区气象要素的时空演变规律。结果表明：（1）京津冀地区整体呈现出降水减少、气温上升、日照减少、相对湿度降低、风速下降的趋势。（2）各气候要素都在1979-1989年间发生了突变，年降水在1996年发生了第二次突变。（3）各气候要素均表现出多时间尺度耦合的复杂特性，其第一主周期尺度介于8～25 a之间。（4）年均温由南向北递减，中、西部为升温速率的高值区；降水及其变率均自东向西递减；日照时数由南向北递增，而其变率则与之相反；相对湿度由东南向西北递减，其变率则由西南向东北递减；平均风速及其变率的高值中心均为张北和塘沽。

关键词：气候变化；气温；降水；日照时数；相对湿度；风速；京津冀

中图分类号：P467文献标志码：A文章编号：16721683（2018）03012510

Climate evolution characteristics of BeijingTianjinHebei Region for the last 55 years

MIAO Zhengwei1，XU Ligang2，HAN Huilingi1

（1.Hebei University of Water Resources and Electric Engineering，Cangzhou 061001，China；

2.Ningxia Institute of Water Resources Research，Yinchuan 750021，China）

Abstract：Based on the climatic data of 22 meteorological stations in BeijingTianjinHebei region from 1961 to 2015，by means of the climate tendency rate，MannKendall mutation test，Morlet wavelet analysis，and inverse distance weighting （IDW），we systematically studied the temporalspatial variations of climatic variables over the BeijingTianjinHebei region in the recent 55 years.The results showed that：1） In the past 55 years，the BeijingTianjinHebei region underwent an increase of temperature and a decrease of sunshine，precipitation，wind speed，and average relative humidity.2） The climatic variables all went through a sudden change in 19791989，and the annual precipitation went through a second sudden change in 1996.3） The climatic variables all showed a complex characteristic of coupling at multiple time scales，and their first main period scales ranged from 8 to 25 years.4） In BeijingTianjinHebei region，the average air temperature showed a decreasing trend from south to north，with the change rate peaking in the central and western area.Both precipitation and its change rate showed a decreasing trend from east to west.Sunshine hours showed an increasing trend from south to north，while its change rate showed the opposite trend.Relative humidity showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest，while its change rate showed a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast.The peaks of wind speed and its change rate both appeared in Zhangbei and Tanggu area.

Key words：climate change；air temperature；precipitation；sunshine hours；relative humidity；wind speed；BeijingTianjinHebei

在全球升溫的背景下，气候变化具有显著的区域差异，认识区域气候变化特征，对于区域农业生产、防灾减灾等具有重要意义。京津冀地区历来气象灾害多发，对人们的生产生活造成重大影响，甚至制约了社会、经济的可持续发展。在京津冀协同发展的国家战略之下，更有必要对其气候变化特征进行探讨。近几年，对于京津冀地区的气候变化已经有了一些研究。许颖等[1]基于怀来县1954-2012年的月气象数据研究了气温、降水的变化特征及其与水库来水、粮食单产的关系。李鹏飞等[2]研究了京津冀地区1960-2010年气温、降水及潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征。……