何璟嫕 周静雯 赵堃 徐云强 苏保林

摘要：为了对面源污染进行总量控制，需要对减排潜力进行合理评估，减排潜力的定量化是基于对减排措施进行优选，制定一套可行的、兼顾环境效益和经济成本的减排方案。以常州市为案例分析面源污染的減排潜力，采用能同时进行定量和定性分析的层次分析法对减排方案进行多目标优化，选取总氮削减率、总磷削减率、氨氮削减率、COD削减率作为环境指标，建设成本和运行成本作为经济指标，备选减排措施从常州市及其周边的示范工程和试验工程选取，确保其可操作性。以2014年为基准年，根据排污系数法估算常州市面源污染排放总量并根据优化措施计算削减量，分析各污染指标的减排潜力。研究列出了常州市面源污染适用减排措施清单，并运用层次分析法对减排工程措施进行优选，得到了2014年常州市面源污染在综合考虑环境效益和经济成本下的减排潜力。

关键词：面源污染；层次分析法；减排潜力；最佳管理措施（BMPs）；畜禽养殖

中图分类号：X32文献标志码：A文章编号：16721683（2018）03011008

Optimization of emission reduction measures and assessment of emission reduction potential for Changzhou city

HE Jingyi1，ZHOU Jingwen2，ZHAO Kun1，XU Yunqiang1，SU Baolin1

（1.College of Water Sciences，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China；

2.The Shangzhuang Village Committee of Shangzhuang Town，Beijing 100875，China）

Abstract：In order to control the total amount of nonpoint source pollution，it is necessary to make a reasonable assessment of the potential of emission reduction.The quantification of emission reduction potential is based on the optimization of emission reduction measures and the development of a feasible emission reduction plan with consideration to both environmental benefits and economic cost.In this study，we took Changzhou City as an example to analyze the emission reduction potential of nonpoint source pollution.We conducted multiobjective optimization of the emission reduction schemes by using the analytic hierarchy process （AHP），which can carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis at the same time.With the technical feasibility，economic rationality and operability as guidelines，we took total nitrogen reduction rate，total phosphorus reduction rate，ammonia reduction rate，COD reduction rate as environmental indexes，and construction costs and operating costs as economic indexes.We selected alternative emission reduction measures from the demonstration projects and pilot projects in Changzhou and its surrounding areas to ensure their operability.With 2014 as the base year，we estimated the total amount of nonpoint source pollution in Changzhou using the pollution coefficient method and calculated the reductions according to the optimization measures，and thus we analyzed the emission reduction potential of each pollutant index.We put forward a list of emission reduction measures suitable for nonpoint source pollution in Changzhou，and used the analytic hierarchy process to optimize the emission reduction measures，and determined the emission reduction potential of nonpoint source pollution in Changzhou in 2014 with consideration to both environmental benefits and economic costs.

Key words：nonpoint source （NPS） pollution；analytic hierarchy process （AHP）；emissions reduction potential；best management practices （BMPs）；livestock and poultry breeding

面源污染，也稱非点源污染，主要指大气、地表和土壤中非特定地点不确定数量的污染物在不确定的时间进入江河、湖泊、水库等所引起的水体污染[1]。最早关注面源治理的是美国，美国于1972年将面源治理的相关内容写入到《清洁水法》中，提出了最佳管理措施（Best Management Practices，BMPs），并对概念进行了定义和解释，同时提出了多个实用模型，用来估测措施的实施效果[2]。……