张珊 谭倩 蔡宴朋 张同 张田媛

摘要：干旱半干旱流域内社会、经济和生态问题多是由水资源匮乏或管理不当导致的，因此寻求有效的水资源管理方法至关重要。针对农业水资源配置过程的多目标性和不确定性问题，建立了一个多目标模糊可信性优化模型（MFCP）。该模型不仅通过定量分析不同目标在农业发展中的权重，对决策变量的综合效益进行模糊优选，还基于模糊可信理论处理了模糊参数。所开发的MFCP模型应用于甘肃省武威市民勤灌区进行实证研究，构建了以经济、生态和社会效益为目标、以水土资源自然禀赋限制等為约束的水资源优化配置模型。结果表明，可以通过减小玉米和葵花种植面积、增大瓜类和蔬菜的面积达到区域综合效益最优。以2015年为例，与优化前现状相比，优化后的方案在减少111%的种植总面积的情况下，能节约水量126%、提高经济收益138%。

关键词：资源利用；作物种植结构；多目标优化；模糊定权；模糊可信性

中图分类号：TV213文献标志码：A文章编号：16721683（2018）03007907

A multiobjective optimization model for agricultural water resources based on

fuzzy optimal selection and credibility

ZHANG Shan1，TAN Qian1，CAI Yanpeng2，ZHANG Tong1，ZHANG Tianyuan1

（1.College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering，China Agricultural University，Beijing 100083，China；

2.School of Environment，Beijing Normal University， Beijing 100083，China）

Abstract：Many economic，social and ecological problems in arid and semiarid watersheds can be attributed to the scarcity and mismanagement of water resources.Therefore，it is extremely important to seek effective water resources management methods.In this research，a multiobjective fuzzy credibility programming （MFCP） model was developed for supporting agricultural water resources management.This model can conduct fuzzy optimal selection of the comprehensive benefits of the decisionmaking variables by quantitatively analyzing the weights of different objectives in agricultural development.It can also deal with fuzzy parameters based on the fuzzy credibility theory.The MFCP model was applied to Minqin County in Wuwei city，Gansu province.An optimization model for water resources was established with economic，ecological，and social benefits as the objectives，with the water and land resources endowment as physical restraints.Results showed that the comprehensive benefits of this region could be optimized by reducing the planting area of corns and sunflowers and increasing the area of melons and vegetables.Compared with the actual situation in 2015，the optimized scheme could save 126% water resources and increase economic revenue by 138%，while reducing the total planting area by 111%.

Key words：resource utilization；crop planting structure；multiobjective optimization；fuzzy weighting；fuzzy credibility

随着人口的日益增加、经济的迅猛发展，人们对粮食的需求不断提高。然而有限的水资源和耕地资源成为粮食产量增加和经济发展的瓶颈。中国作为人口、经济大国，其干旱面积约为332×106 km2，占总面积的35%，超过了耕地面积的1/3。对于没有灌溉就没有农业的干旱和半干旱地区，水资源储量的不足和相关管理模式的不完善，是制约当地发展的主要问题[1 3]。不合理的配水方案不仅会造成水资源的浪费，也影响生态系统的格局与演变[3]。……