摘要  利用南豐国家气象观测一级站1957年12月至2018年2月大气探测资料，分析南丰县近60年冬季极端最低气温特征及影响因子，结果发现：南丰县冬季极端最低气温除少数年份出现在2月份外，多数年份出现在上年12月至当年1月，尤其是当年1月份。冬季极端最低气温平均值为-3.9℃、最低值为-10.8℃、最高值为0.4℃。从20世纪60年代到21世纪10年代，南丰县冬季极端最低气温年际相关不显著，年代均值呈直线上升趋势;冬季日最低气温≤-4.0℃累计天数年际相关不显著，年代均值呈直线下降趋势，相关系数均达极显著水平。1958—2017年的60年中，有27年冬季未出现日最低气温≤-4.0℃天气。南丰县冬季极端最低气温，与上年3月最小相对湿度（X1）、5月上旬平均最高气温（X2）、10月减3月极端最低地面温度（X3）、（2月下旬+8月上旬+8月下旬+9月中旬+9月下旬）降水量-（3月下旬+9月上旬）降水量（X4）等因子相关显著;与组合因子X（X2+X3+X4-X1）相关极显著。

关键词 南丰县;冬季;极端最低气温;特征;影响因子

中图分类号：000 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-3305（2018）06-047-03

DOI： 10.19383/j.cnki.nyzhyj.2018.06.022

Characteristics and Influ encing Factors of Extreme Minimum Temperature in Winter of Recent 60 Years in Nanfeng County

HE Shou-ren（Nanfeng County Meteorological Bureau， Nanfeng， Jiangxi  344500）

Abstract The characteristics and influencing factors of the extreme minimum temperature in winter in Nanfeng County were analyzed by using the data of atmospheric detection from December 1957 to February 2018 in Nanfeng national meteorological observation station. The results were as follows： except for a few years in February， the extreme minimum temperature in winter in Nanfeng County occurred from December last year to January of that year， especially in January of that year.The average temperature of extreme minimum temperature in winter is -3.9℃， the minimum value is -10.8℃， the highest value is 0.4℃. From 1960s to the 10s of 21st century， the interannual correlation of extreme minimum winter temperature in Nanfeng County was not significant， and the mean value of the year was rising in a straight line. The interannual correlation of the cumulative days of daily minimum temperature（≤-4.0℃） in winter was not significant， the mean age was decreased， and the correlation coefficient reached a extremely significant level. During the 60 years from 1958 to 2017， there were 27 years did not appear daily minimum temperature≤-4.0℃ in winter. The extreme minimum temperature in winter in Nanfeng County was significantly correlated with the minimum relative humidity （X1） in March last year， in early May the average maximum temperature（X2） in October March， reducing extreme minimum ground temperature（X3），（late February+early August+late August+ mid-September+late September） precipitation-（late March+early September） precipitation（X4）， was very significantly correlated with the combination factor X （X2+X3+X4-X1）.

Key words   Nanfeng County; Winter; Extreme minimum temperature; Influence factor

南丰县位于江西省东部、抚州市南部，地处116°09′～116°45′E，26°51′～27°21′N，属中亚热带季风气候区。由于太阳辐射等原因，南丰县每年都有不同程度的暴雨洪涝、高温干旱、低温冻害等灾害性天气出现。南丰蜜桔是南丰县特产，有1 300多年的栽培历史，它以皮薄核少、汁多化渣、酸甜适口、风味独特而驰名中外，是南丰农业的主导产业，抚州市农业的支柱产业，江西省的著名优质品牌农副产品，列入全省重点发展的十大农业支柱产业。

南丰县冬季极端最低气温就像是一把双刃剑。……