胡巧莲 杨君 何欢 罗飞雪

文章编号：1672-5603（2018）02-024-7

摘 要 本研究以广西壮族自治区桂林市全州县为例，运用二元logistics回归分析模型对影响农户参与土地承包经营权抵押贷款因素进行分析及预测，结果表明：农户参与意愿强烈，73.48%的农户有愿意参与；农户户主年龄、农户务农收入占比、贷款利率、农户家庭总收入以及农地总面积对参与意愿有显著影响，且农户户主年龄和务农收入占比越小、贷款利率越低，农户家庭总收入以及农地总面积越大，贷款意愿越强烈。论文针对调查结果提出对应策略以供参考。

关键词 土地承包经营权；抵押融资；意愿分析；二元logistics回归分析

中图分类号：F321.1 文献标识码：A

The Willingness and Influencing Factors about Rural Land Contracting Mortage Right Loan

——A Case Study in Quanzhou County， Guilin

Hu Qiaolian，Yang Jun，He Huan， Luo Feixue

（College of resources and environment， Hunan Agricultural University， Changsha Hunan 410128）

Abstract： This article takes Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as an example of Quanzhou county， Guilin city， using the binary logistics regression analysis model to analyze and predict the factors of the Rural Land Contracting Mortage Right Loan which farmers participated in. The results showed that farmers have strong will to participate in Rural Land Contracting Mortage Right Loan. 73.48% farmers are willing to participate in it. Farmer householder age， the proportion of farmers' farming income in farm household， loan interest rates， and the total area of the farmland have significant influence. The smaller farmer householder age and farming income proportionand lower loan interest rate， income of farm household and the total area of the farmland could make the greater the loans will. The corresponding strategies are proposed for reference.

Keywords： Right of contract land management； Mortgage financing； the analysis of will； Binary logistic regression analysis

0引言

我國农村经济随着国家经济步入新常态也迎来了发展的新机遇。自2008年以来连续六个中央一号文件都与三农密切相关，2015年中央一号文件明确提出要稳定农村土地承包关系，建立健全土地承包经营权流转市场，创新农村融资方式，并且在此基础上强调做好承包土地的经营权和农民住房财产权抵押担保贷款试点工作。2015年、2016年陆续印发了《关于开展农村承包土地的经营权和农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点的指导意见》、《农村承包土地的经营权抵押贷款试点暂行办法》，对农地经营权抵押融资业务试点作出明确指导。2017 年中央1号文件再次强调要加快农村金融创新，深入推进承包土地的经营权和农民住房财产权抵押融资试点。

国内学者主要从农户社会关系、资产数量以及信用记录方面分析了农户土地承包经营权抵押贷款的可得性[1]；……