陈淳 何岩雨 周昌懋 王立辉

摘要 針对海岛地区缺少能体现海洋灾害特点的海洋减灾能力评估指标体系和方法，以平潭岛为研究对象，按照科学性、代表性和数据可得性的原则构建了海岛地区抗台减灾综合能力评价指标体系。从区域防御能力、预警监测能力、应急响应能力和恢复重建能力4个方面进行评价，在此基础上运用主观、客观相结合的方法计算了各指标的综合权重，然后引入模糊综合评价法计算了近10年平潭岛抗台减灾综合能力的得分。结果表明，2008—2017年平潭岛抗台减灾综合能力得分随时间的推进不断提高，说明平潭综合实验区对于加强自身抗台减灾综合能力建设的重视，影响抗台减灾综合能力的大部分重点指标的数值均在社会经济发展过程中持续不断的增长。平潭岛抗台减灾综合能力得分在上升过程中增长速率也存在着明显的波动，主要可以分为平缓增长期、快速增长期a、增长瓶颈期和快速增长期b 4个阶段。

关键词 台风风暴潮；抗台减灾能力；定量评估；海岛地区；平潭岛

中图分类号 P444文献标识码 A文章编号 0517-6611（2018）31-0056-06

Abstract In view of the lack of marine disaster prevention and mitigation capability assessment indicator system and method that can reflect the characteristics of marine disasters in the island area， the evaluation indicator system for the comprehensive capability of the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation in island area had been constructed according to the principles of science， representativeness and data availability， and Pingtan Island had been taken as the research case. Four aspects had been evaluated which were respectively the capability of regional defense， the capability of early warning monitoring， the capability of emergency response and the capability of recovery and reconstruction. On this basis， the combination of subjective and objective methods was used to calculate the comprehensive weight of each index， and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was introduced to calculate the score of Pingtan Islands comprehensive ability of the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation in the past 10 years. The results showed that the scores of Pingtan Islands comprehensive ability of the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation from 2008 to 2017 had been improved with time， indicating that the Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Area attaches great importance to strengthening its comprehensive capacity building for the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation，and the values of most of the key indicators affecting the comprehensive capacity of the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation had continued to grow in the process of social and economic development.The growth rate of Pingtan Islands comprehensive ability of the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation in the process of rising also had obvious fluctuations， which could be divided into four stages： smooth growth period， rapid growth period a， growth bottleneck period and rapid growth period b.

Key words Storm surge；Ability of disaster prevention and mitigation；Quantitative evaluation；Island Area；Pingtan Island

作为第二海洋经济带的海岛，是全球气候变化和陆海各动力作用最迅速最敏感的界面之一，更是一个灾害频发的区域。随着海洋经济的蓬勃发展，海岛地区重要承灾体目标逐步增多，受灾风险逐步加大。与大陆沿海相比，海岛相对孤立地散布于海上，交通不便，基础设施共享性差，其防灾减灾设施和技术保障严重不足，这些不利因素导致海岛发生灾害时受灾更加严重[1-3]。……