刘德辅，史宏达，刘桂林，王风清

(中国海洋大学，山东 青岛 266003)

我国滨海核电站防护工程设计标准研究

刘德辅，史宏达，刘桂林，王风清

(中国海洋大学，山东 青岛 266003)

面对全球极端气候频发的趋势，国内外核电站海岸防护工程普遍采用“可能最大台风暴潮”、“设计基准洪水”等具有含混性的规定作为确定防灾设计标准的依据，其内涵的各种不确定性因素必然会对防灾决策带来重大的致灾隐患。按照国务院核电站安全规划(2011-2020)提出的“必须按照全球最高安全要求”，全面开展滨海核电站防护工程设计标准研究己势在必行。使用多维复合极值分布理论及双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式，将核电站水文与气象的研究标准合二为一，对IAEA及我国滨海核电站防护工程设计标准进行了风险评估，供有关部门参考。

滨海核电站；防护工程；设计标准；设计基准洪水；多维复合极值分布；风险评估

Abstract: With the tendency of increasing extreme natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane, and tropical cyclone induced surges, waves and rainstorms menace Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal areas. National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have recommended safety regulations for NPP site evaluation installation and coastal defence infrastructures. These standards include Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon (PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) as well as Design Basis Flood (DBF). According to the 2011-2020 safety planning of China State Council for nuclear power plants, it is necessary to do a comprehensive research on design standards for protective engineering and structural technology of the NPP based on the world’s highest safety requirements. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of meteorological and oceanographic factors based on our proposed Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD), Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), and Double Layer Nested Multi-Objective Probability Model (DLNMOPM), and ours are compared with IAEA recommended safety regulation design criteria for NPP coastal defence infrastructures in China.

Keywords: nuclear power plants; protection engineering; design standard; design basic floods; multivariate compound extreme value distribution; risk assessment

随着全球气候变暖和海平面上升等因素加剧的趋势，台风、巨浪、风暴潮、暴雨和洪灾等已成为影响滨海核电站防护工程安全的重大问题。日本核电灾害发生后，许多学者对地震-海啸的研究表明：当Manila和Rykyu海沟发生9级地震时，对我国东南沿海诱发的海啸巨浪不超过6 m[1]。世界气象组织指出：百分之九十的自然灾害为极端气象灾害，例如台风、飓风和热带风暴灾害。台风是威胁我国滨海核电站的最重要致灾因素。研究台风、巨浪、风暴增水、暴雨、洪水及其与天文大潮组合的小概率极端事件发生的可能性非常必要。……