张芯瑜　孟庆军　崔悦

摘要：通过兼顾海外直接投资环境的整体性和动态性，构建了中国农业企业对外投资项目风险评价指标体系。选取了有代表性的项目，结合层次分析法和熵权系数法进行风险评价。结果表明，国际农业市场风险、东道国政治法律风险、国内制度障碍和企业自身技术限制等风险因素较为突出。为防范和降低投资风险，政府应加大政策支持力度，成立专门的农业海外投资服务机构，企业应建立有效的风险评价机制，促进农业技术的研发与推广。

关键词：农业；直接投资；风险评价；综合环境；农业科技

中图分类号：F306 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）11-2184-06

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.11.046

Abstract： By taking the integrity and dynamics of the direct investment environment in foreign countries into account， the risk assessment index system of foreign direct investment projects for China's agricultural enterprises was established. The risk of some representative projects was assessed by combining the methods of AHP and entropy coefficient. The results showed that the risk factors including international agricultural market risk， host country's political and legal risk， domestic institutional barriers as well as enterprise's own technical limitations were relatively prominent. In order to prevent and mitigate these risks， the government should provide more political supports such as establishing specific organization for foreign investment service. The companies should establish an effective risk assessment mechanisms and focus on the development and promotion of agricultural technology.

Key words： agriculture；direct investment；risk assessment；integrated environment；agricultural science and technology

近些年中國出台多项措施支持农业“走出去”，对外农业投资增速很快。“一带一路”对外经济发展模式为农业发展提供了广阔新空间，是中国加快农业企业对外投资、维护全球农业市场稳定的有利契机。现在中国对外农业投资已经遍及全球80多个国家和地区，投资覆盖率达33%。2010-2014年中国农业企业海外并购额高达185亿美元。然而从净额看，2014年农林牧渔业对外直接投资流量仅占中国对外直接投资流量总量的1.65%[1]。农业是中国对外投资的弱势领域，这与农业海外投资项目风险大、企业抗风险能力不足等息息相关。

海外直接投资环境是产生农业海外投资风险的根源。海外直接投资环境是指围绕并影响农业海外投资项目发展的各种环境因素的总和，可以分为外部的国际环境、东道国环境、投资国环境以及内部的企业环境[2]。……