彭滢+吴子君

【摘 要】为了应对提速降费的市场竞争压力，提升存量2G/3G客户迁转4G资费套餐营销效率和效果，针对目前采用单一模型进行静态测算的现状，提出了一种基于客户消费行为的4G资费套餐推荐建模方法，该方法考虑产品生命周期，采用最短距离法和最低消费法独立建模、交叉选择，并选取中国移动某省份存量待迁转客户群体进行研究。通过抽样验证，结果表明该模型能在短时间内提升电子渠道人工客服迁转成效，同时兼顾收入稳定和客户满意度。

【关键词】客户消费行为 资费套餐 产品生命周期 最短距离法 最低消费法

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1006-1010.2017.08.017 中图分类号：F626.12 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-1010（2017）08-0085-06

引用格式：彭滢，吴子君. 基于客户消费行为的4G资费套餐推荐建模研究[J]. 移动通信， 2017，41（8）： 85-90.

Investigation on 4G Tariff Plan Recommendation Model Based on Customer Consumption Behaviors

PENG Ying， WU Zijun

[Abstract] In order to deal with the market competition pressure to facilitating faster and more affordable Internet connections， as well as enhance the marketing efficiency and effect of existing 2G/3G customers transferring to 4G tariff plan， a 4G tariff plan recommendation modeling method based on customer consumption behaviors was proposed in view of the single model. In the proposed method， the product life cycle was considered， the minimum distance method and the minimum consumption method were adopted to independently build and select model. Existing customers in a provincial branch of China Mobile were selected to be investigated. Results show that the model can enhance the transferring efficiency of the electronic channels customer service in a short time and maintain stable income and customer satisfaction.

[Key words]customer consumption behavior tariff plan product life cycle minimum distance method

minimum consumption method

1 引言

近年來，三大电信运营商在4G市场的竞争趋于白热化，资费套餐的营销成为运营商市场线条的重点。对比三大运营商4G资费套餐体系，均表现出区别于2G/3G时代的两个特点：一是统一化，即4G品牌、4G套餐和套外单价的全网统一；二是流量化，即套内流量额度大幅增加、套外流量单价大幅下调。伴随提速降费压力和市场容量饱和，运营商收入规模和结构均受到冲击，而新增市场日趋乏力，存量经营就成为重中之重，因此研究运营商市场部门如何针对存量2G/3G客户进行4G资费套餐推荐迁转具有重要意义。

截至2016年08月31日，中国移动客户总数8.41亿，其中4G客户总数4.67亿、占比55.53%，但4G客户新增接近90%由存量2G/3G客户转化，且各省4G迁转进度和策略存在较大差异。……