黄小芳

摘 要：本研究在马克思产业分类体系及霍夫曼产业分类体系的基础上，将全部产业划分为消费品产业和投资品产业两大类。其中，消费品产业是指提供消费品以满足人们物质和文化生活需要的那部分社会产品的产业，投资品产业是指为国民经济各部门提供技术装备、动力和原材料等生产资料及生产服务支撑的产业。本研究重点从消费需求变化的视角分析东北地区近年来尤其是2016年的经济和产业发展情况：2016年东北经济低谷已过，其中辽宁基本筑底，吉林、黑龙江筑底回升；东北地区整体消费需求不振，投资需求严重下降，民间投资动力不足；消费品工业比重缓慢提高，投资品工业比重逐渐下降，服务业增速整体放缓，房地产业严重下滑；新兴产业发展势头良好，但新旧动能的转化还需要很长时间。2017年东北老工业基地振兴将进入全面推进的关键阶段。

关键词：东北地区；需求变化视角；消费品产业；投资品产业

中图分类号：F427 文献标识码：B 文章编号：2095-7866 （2017） 05-055-008

工业经济论坛 URL： http//www.iereview.com.cn DOI： 10.11970/j.issn.2095-7866.2017.05.008

Abstract： Based on the classification system of Marx and Hoffman， this article classified all industries as Consumer goods industry and Investment goods industry. Consumer goods industry refers to the social product industry providing consumer goods to meet people's material and cultural needs. Investment goods industry refers to those industry providing technical equipment， power and raw materials and other production materials and producer services for various sectors of the national economy. Then this article analyzed economic and industrial development in Northeast China， from the perspective of consumer demand changes， in recent years， especially in 2016. Research shows that economic downturn has passed in northeast china， in 2016. For example， the economic has touched the bottom in Liaoning， while the economic of Jilin and Heilongjiang has upturned already. The consumer demand is weak in Northeast China， and investment demand declined very seriously. Consumer goods industry proportion increased very slowly， the investment goods industry proportion gradually decreased， the growth rate of service industry slowed down， and the real estate industry declined severely. New industry developed well， but the conversion of old and new kinetic energy will take a long time. It will be a critical stage for the revitalization of Northeast China， in 2017.

Key words： Northeast China； Perspective of Demand Change； Consumer Goods Industry； Investment Goods Industry

引言

東北地区（包括黑龙江、吉林、辽宁）具备雄厚的工农业基础，拥有全国最大的重化工及装备制造业基地，也是我国商品粮和农牧业生产基地的重要组团。1978年改革开放以来，东北地区经济实力不断下降。2003年国家发布了《关于实施东北地区等老工业基地振兴战略的若干意见》，振兴东北战略正式实施，东北地区经济又保持了近十年的快速增长。然而2014年以来，在传统产业产能过剩背景下，东北地区国内生产总值（以下简称GDP）增速严重下滑，整体呈现下行趋势，有关专家称之为“新东北现象”。……