罗刚++王成++孟从伍++李进品

摘 要：該文以不同时相的遥感影像数据作为主要的数据源，采用监督分类和人工目视解译相结合的方法，提取北碚区城市建成区范围，并运用GIS空间分析方法和数理统计方法，分析北碚区2004—2014年城市建成区变化的数量特征和空间特征。结果表明：在2004—2014年10年间，北碚区城市建成区面积增加了91.2%，2004—2007年扩展2.85 km2，年均增长0.95 km2，扩展速度较快；2007—2010年扩展了1.57 km2，年平均增长0.52 km2，扩展速度缓慢；2010—2014年扩展了3.85 km2，年均增长1.28 km2，增长速度较快。北碚区城市扩展受到缙云山脉和中梁山脉的阻隔，城市扩展沿着缙云山脉和中梁山脉中间的槽谷地带分别向歇马镇、东阳镇方向扩展。通过对北碚区城市扩展驱动力研究表明：地形因素对北碚区城市扩展方向及形态起着限制性作用，经济发展和城市人口的增长是北碚区城市扩展的主要动力，交通基础设施建设、固定资产投资以及政策等因素也对北碚区城市扩展起着一定的影响。通过建立多元线性回归模型，对北碚区2020年城市建成区面积进行预测表明：北碚区2020年城市建成区面积将达到23.08 km2。

关键词：城市扩展 驱动力 RS和GIS 北碚区

中图分类号：S15 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1674-098X（2016）08（c）-0057-09

A Research and Forecast On Urban Expansion Law in Beibei Based On Remote Sense and Geographical Information System

Luo Gang Wang Cheng Meng Congwu Li Jinpin

（School of Geographical Sciences， Southwest University， Chongqing， 400715， China）

Abstract：This paper used different times of remote sensing images as data source， applied the method of supervised classification combined with artificial vision imagery understanding， to extract the urban built-up area， and adopted GIS spatial analysis and statistical methods to analysis the quantity feature and spatial feature of changes in the built-up area of Beibei. Results show that： during the 10 years from 2004 to 2014， the urban built-up area of Beibei increased 91.2%， during the period from 2004 to 2007， the urban built-up area of Beibei expanded 2.85 km2， average annual growth of 0.95 km2， the speed of expansion is relatively fast； during the period from 2007 to 2010， the urban built-up area of Beibei expanded 1.57 km2， average annual growth of 0.52 km2， the speed of expansion is relatively slow； during the period from 2010 to 2014， the urban built-up area of Beibei expanded 3.85 km2， average annual growth of 1.28 km2， the speed of expansion is relatively fast. The urban expansion of Beibei is cut off by JinYun Mountain and ZhongLiang Mountain. The urban built-up area expands along the valley between JinYun Mountain and ZhongLiang Mountain to the direction of XieMa town and DongYang town. Through the research on the driving forces of urban expansion in Beibei show that： terrain plays a limited role on the propagation of the built-up area， population growth and society economic growth are the main driver of extension， the traffic infrastructure construction， fixed assets investment and policy also play a certain influence on the urban expansion. By establishing a multiple linear regression model， the urban built-up area of Beibei in 2020 was predicted， which showed that the urban built-up area of Beibei District in 2020 will reach 23.08 km2.

Key Words：Urban expansion； Driving force； S and S； Beibei District

城市是人类文明的集中地，是人类生活的重要场所之一，也是地表各类物质、信息、能量等交换的场所。城市化过程是指由于社会生产力的发展而引起的城市空间增长，城市规模扩大，农村人口向城市集中的过程[1]。改革开放至今，我国城镇化水平不断提高，从1978年的19.7%提高到2014年的54.77%，增长十分显著。……