熊勇清+许智宏

摘要：利用格兰杰因果检验、Johansen协整检验和面板数据回归模型，考量海上丝绸之路上港口物流与港口城市经济的动态关系以及相互作用机制。结果显示，港口物流与港口城市经济之间存在长期的稳定关系，港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量与港口城市经济发展之间存在着双向因果关系，货物吞吐量对港口城市经济的贡献度大于集装箱吞吐量对港口城市经济的贡献度，港口城市经济对货物吞吐量的方差贡献度大于港口城市经济对集装箱吞吐量的方差贡献度。结果表明，发展和促进重点港口城市经济发展与港口物流发展，符合“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的战略目标。

关键词：港口物流；港口城市；港口经济；海上丝绸之路

Abstract：In the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road，the new context of national implementation of the strategy， port construction and port cities are facing new development opportunities. Based on 21st Century Maritime Silk Road national strategy on the basis of port development and port cities on Economic Development， this paper used Granger causality test， Johansen Cointegration and panel data regression model to analyze the dynamic interaction mechanismbetween port logistics and port city economy.The results show that long-term and stable relationship between the port logistics and port city economy；Two-way causal relationship between the two indicators to measure the port logistics cargo throughput and container throughput of the port city and economic；Cargo throughput of the port city's economic contribution is greater than the container throughput of the port city's economic contribution；Economy on the port city of variance contribution cargo throughput is greater than the variance of economic contribution of the port city of container throughput.

Key words：Port logistics；Port city；Port economic；Maritime Silk Road

一、引言

我国沿海地区港口发展已进入高速发展时期，港口的快速发展有效的带动了港口城市经济的增长，而港口城市经济又为港口的发展提供了有力的物质支撑和良好的基础条件。为构建和平稳定的合作环境，加大对外开放力度，促进国家之间共同发展，我国提出了实施“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的战略构想。“21世纪海上丝绸之路”战略明确指出了港口城市的重要地位，指明要加强上海、天津等15个重点沿海城市港口的建设，打造一座沟通东西方经济文化交流的桥梁。因此，在国家战略“21世纪海上丝绸之路”实施的新背景下，研究分析港口城市与港口发展之间的双向互动关系有着特殊的时代意义。……