孙培良 邱东凤 李楠 赵继伟

摘要 利用1961—2014年聊城市8个气象观测站的冰雹灾害观测资料，结合GIS技术、小波分析、气候趋势等方法分析了冰雹日数的趋势及特点。结果表明：聊城冰雹年际变化明显，年平均降雹日数呈总体下降趋势，尤其是20世纪90年代以来降雹日呈持续下降趋势；冰雹日数有较明显的周期性；冰雹天气一年四季均有发生，其中主要出现在4—7月，占全年冰雹日数的77.7%，又以6月最多，占29.2%；通过统计1981年以来冰雹灾害对聊城农业的影响可知：30多年来已造成巨大的经济损失。加强对冰雹天气的监测、预报，实施人工消雹作业是最有效的防御手段。

关键词 冰雹；趋势；农业灾害；防御对策；山东聊城

中图分类号 P429 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）06-0207-03

Hail Disaster Trends and Impact on Agriculture and Defensive Countermeasures in Liaocheng City

SUN Pei-liang 1 QIU Dong-feng 2 LI Nan 1 ZHAO Ji-wei 3

（1 The Weather Bureau of Liaocheng City in Shandong Province，Liaocheng Shandong 252000； 2 The Weather Bureau of Chiping City；

3 The Hydrological Station of Liaocheng City）

Abstract Using 1961—2014 hail observations data of Liaocheng eight meteorological stations，combined with GIS technology，wavelet analysis，climate trends and other methods to analyze the trends and characteristics of the number of hail days.The results showed that Liaocheng hail had obvious interannual variation，the annual average number of days hail had the overall downward trend，especially since the 1990s，It had a continuing downward trend；number of hail days had more visible cyclical；hail had occurred throughout the year，mainly appeared in April to July，77.7% of the annual number of days of hail，the most appeared in June，accounting for 29.2%.The statistical impact of hail damage to agriculture was analyzed，it turned out that 30 years hail had resulted in huge direct economic losses.Strengthen the hail weather monitoring，forecasting，implementation of artificial hail suppression operations are effective means of defense.

Key words hail；trend；agricultural disasters；defense responses；Liaocheng Shandong

冰雹是一種破坏力极强的气象灾害，具有突发性、局地性和短时性特点，常伴有短时大风、强降水等剧烈天气，往往给工农业生产、人们的生活，甚至生命财产等造成严重影响[1-3]。冰雹是聊城仅次于干旱灾害的第二大气象灾害，通过对1981年来冰雹造成灾害统计，平均每年造成5.8万人受灾，直接经济损失1 337.7万元，导致作物平均受灾、成灾和绝产面积分别达到689.1万、463.4万、183.9万hm2。因此，分析冰雹发生的时空分布特征，对了解冰雹特性，掌握聊城冰雹活动规律，对防灾减灾意义重大。

该文利用1961—2014年聊城冰雹日数资料，分析了聊城冰雹日数的发展趋势，以便了解冰雹的活动规律和特征，更好地开展冰雹的预测防御工作，及早采取科学应对措施，减轻其造成的经济损失和人员伤亡[3-5]。……