叶健飞

摘要：

与日俱增的人口产生了越来越多的生活垃圾.面对垃圾围城的严峻形势，城市生活垃圾处理变得越来越迫切.为了预测上海市未来的垃圾产生量，探讨合适的处置方法和调控措施，利用系统动力学的方法建立了上海市城市生活垃圾产生和处理系统的动力学模型.通过查阅大量文献并收集数据，预测未来生活垃圾的产生总量和处理总量，对各种处理方式的收益进行了对比，并利用系统动力学模型模拟软件VENSIM进行了模拟.结果表明：在调控措施下，未来上海市垃圾产生量能得到控制和更加环保的处理；同时，需要控制人口，提高环保投资占GDP比重，实行垃圾收费制度.

关键词：

系统理论； 系统动力学； 城市生活垃圾； 调控措施

中图分类号： N 941.3； X 32文献标志码： A

Abstract：

Due to the population growing，more and more municipal solid wastes（MSW） are generated.The serious situation of MSW surrounding city has made its disposal become an urgent problem.The purpose of this paper was to forecast the MSW production and to find its appropriate disposal method and regulation measures.Dynamics model of the MSW generation and disposal system in Shanghai was constructed with system dynamics method.The data in the model was collected from the published literatures，and was used to predict the total volume of produced MSW，total volume of treated MSW.The comparison of benefits was made among a variety of waste treatment methods.The simulation was conducted using VENSIM software.It was found that，with the regulation measure，the MSW output could be controlled and its disposal could be more environmentfriendly in the future in Shanghai by controlling the population，increasing the share of environmental protection investment in GDP，and implementing waste charging institution.

Keywords：

system theory；system dynamics；municipal solid waste；regulation measure

随着上海自贸区的建立和沪苏浙皖超级经济区方案的上报，上海日益朝着国际化大都市迈进.面对大好的发展机会，越来越多的人口涌入上海，上海的环境压力与日俱增，生活垃圾清运量逐年上升.2012年上海市生活垃圾清运量为716万t，人均垃圾产生量为0.82 kg·d-1，无害化处理量为598.5万t，其中卫生填埋377.5万t、焚烧103.6万t，生活垃圾无害化处理率为83.6%[1].

如此之多的垃圾如何处理成为了一个难题.目前的做法是采取填埋、焚烧、堆肥和临时堆放的方式处理，以填埋为主[2].但是填埋会占用大量的土地，而且对地下水也有影响，会进一步加剧上海市人口与土地资源供应紧张的矛盾，形成垃圾与人争地……