梁艺腾，王致杰，王海群

(上海电机学院 电气学院，上海201306)

输电系统N-k故障运行风险分析

梁艺腾，王致杰，王海群

(上海电机学院 电气学院，上海201306)

摘要：随着电网的发展与扩大，N-k故障日益成为造成大规模停电事故的主要原因之一。为研究电网中N-k故障的风险，首先建立考虑多种因素的输电线路可靠性模型和考虑隐性故障的保护系统运行可靠性模型；然后针对传统的系统可靠性评估方法的不足，提出了考虑N-k故障的输电系统风险评估方法，实现系统实时运行情况有效地计算出N-k故障的路径；基于保护元件的隐性故障分析，结合风险理论，建立符合市场要求下的输电系统N-k故障运行风险模型，该模型能有效地结合电网的运行安全性和经济性。最后基于IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统进行算例仿真，结果表明，保护配置的方案、输电线率所处运行环境和线路容量都会对N-k故障风险产生相应的影响，基于可靠性理论可以很好地评估输电系统N-k故障运行风险。

关键词：N-k故障；输电系统；隐性故障；风险评估

中图分类号:TM711

文献标识码:A

DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-0792.2015.10.011

收稿日期：2015-07-27。

作者简介：梁艺腾(1990-)，男，硕士研究生，研究方向为输电线路N-k故障，E-mail:1028323553@qq.com。

Abstract：With the development of grid, N-k contingency has become one of the main reasons of blackout. To study the risk of N-k contingency, the reliability models of transmission lines considering various factors and hidden fault of protection system were established. In addition, as to the deficiency of traditional reliability assessment method, a risk assessment method of transmission lines considering N-k contingency, which can calculate the real-time N-k contingency paths effectively. Based on hidden fault of protection system and combined with risk theory, N-k contingency operational risk model of transmission system is established according to market condition. Finally, case of simulation was analyzed based on IEEE-RTS79 system. The result shows N-k contingency risk of transmission system can be assessed on the basis of reliability theory.

Keywords：N-k contingency; transmission system; hidden fault; risk assessment

0引言

近年来世界各地不断发生大规模停电事故，这极大地引起了电力系统专家的广泛关注[1～5]。大停电事故一般是由连锁反应导致的故障造成，连锁反应从时间上一般可以划分为3个阶段：慢过程相继开断、快过程相继开断和恢复阶段[6]。大量研究表明，大规模停电事故中，有超过50%的事故存在慢开断过程[7]，即在此过程中，能通过有效措施减缓甚至抑制事故的继续扩大，从而减少经济损失。……