熊振国 陈智 魏汝明 李小青

摘要：结合武汉某高速公路高填路堤工程，基于现场沉降变形实时观测数据，利用双曲线法及指数曲线法进行路堤沉降预测，探讨路基沉降预测的可行性及适用性。结果表明，利用双曲线法及指数曲线法预估结果的相对误差均满足工程精度要求；施工期内，指数曲线法的沉降预测精度较低，双曲线法的预测精度明显高于指数曲线法，更适用于路堤填筑工程的沉降预估分析；同时还发现双曲线法预测最终沉降值更能够满足工程施工安全要求。

关键词：高填路堤；沉降预测；实时监测；曲线拟合；相对误差

Study on Analysis and Application of the Prediction of High Embankment Settlement

Xiong zhenguo1, Chen zhi2, Wei ruming2, Li xiaoqing2

（1.Wuhan municipal construction group,Wuhan,Hubei,China）

（2.School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, HUST,Wuhan,Hubei,China）

Abstract. Based on a highway project which located in the northwest of Wuhan City and the real-time settlement monitoring of embankment on-site, Hyperbola method and Index curve method are used in the prediction of embankment settlement and the prediction results were compared to verify the feasibility and the potential engineering value of the prediction of embankment settlement. The calculation results showed the relative error of Hyperbola method and Index curve method can met the needs of the engineering accuracy. In the Construction period, the accuracy of Index curve method was lower than the accuracy of later settlement prediction, and the accuracy of settlement prediction of Hyperbola method was significantly higher than Index curve method. Hyperbola method is more suitable for the estimation to the subsidence of actual embankment engineering construction. Meanwhile, the final settlement value calculated by Hyperbola method is more suitable to requirements of construction safety.

Key Words：high embankment；settlement prediction；real-time monitoring；curve fitting；relative error

中圖分类号：F272.1 文献标识码：A文章编码：

1引言

近年来，高速公路工程建设、高填方路堤工程建设等领域对于地基沉降、变形的要求越来高。路堤沉降预估分析方法在监测路堤沉降、保证路堤施工质量，及时掌握路堤沉降情况,特别是较为合理的预估路基沉降的变化情况等方面效果显著，具有切实的可行性。路堤沉降预估方法主要有两类，一类是通过试验获取土的参数，选择合适的有限元计算模型来计算路堤的沉降量；另一类是通过分析实测沉降数据，获得沉降规律，从而预测路堤的沉降量。采用第一类方法所需计算参数较多，常规土工试验往往无法提供足够的计算参数，故在工程设计中不宜采用。因此，通过观测实测数据来推算后期沉降及最终沉降成为普遍关注的方法。

武汉某高速公路地处武汉市西北部，路线全长16.007km，设计速度100km/h，为双向六车道高速公路，紧临府河，路线所经区域隶属于武汉市江汉区、东西湖区和黄陂区，属低垄岗倾斜平原。……