景鹏 隽志才 贾玲玉

摘 要：本文采用均匀设计的方法设计了关于出行方式选择的SP调查方案，考虑到影响因素随出行者和出行方式的变化有所差异，建立以不同出行方式为效用基础项的条件logit模型，验证了模型的有效性并对模型进行了标定，从多个角度对模型标定结果进行了分析。最后计算了各种出行方式对于各种因素的弹性值，分析了方式选择概率对于各种影响因素的敏感性。研究表明，小汽车出行方式对各种影响因素的敏感性较高，证明了从交通需求管理政策入手引导出行者从小汽车转向其他出行方式的可行性。

关键词：均匀设计；SP调查；出行方式选择

中图分类号：U491 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-5192(2012)04-0075-06

Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Travel Choice Based onUniform Design and SP SurveyJING Peng1,2, JUAN Zhi-cai1, JIA Ling-yu3

(1.Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China; 2.School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China; 3.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

Abstract:This paper designed the SP survey constructed with uniform design method. Considering the factors that may be differented with the travelers and travel mode, the Logit model for two types basic utility of travel choice was established. The Logit model was verified and calibrated. Afterward, the calibration results of the model are analyzed from various aspects. Finally, the elasticity values for a variety of factors were analyzed the sensitivity of travel choice probabilities. Research shows that the sensitivity of using car for various factors affected is higher. The result proved that it is feasible to guide travelers to choose other travel modes instead of driving cars by the traffic demand management policies.

Key words:uniform design; SP survey; travel mode choice

1 引言

为了调节交通系统的供需平衡，解决日益严重的交通拥挤和由此引发的环境污染等问题，交通领域的学者提出了交通需求管理的概念，其核心就是要通过诱导人们的出行来缓解交通拥挤［1］。主要内容包括：优化交通结构，大力发展公交；实施交通一体化政策，实现各种交通方式的综合运用；进行时间和空间上的交通调控等。因而，交通方式划分及与之相应的出行方式选择模型的研究成为需求管理策略主要研究方向之一。但由于出行方式选择涉及的因素多，加之出行者的习惯、喜好等难以测定的因素的存在，传统的集计建模方法难以准确描述出行者对出行方式选择的过程［2］。非集计分析以实际产生出行活动的个人为单位，对调查得到的数据不进行任何统计处理而直接用于建立模型［3］。……