Analysisonwater-savingpotentialofwaterreceivingareasinJiangsuoftheeasternrouteoftheSouth-to-NorthWaterDiversionProject/FANG Guohua1, ZHAO Wencui1, LI Xin1, LU Yiqun2(1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2.Jiangsu Water Source Co., Ltd. of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion, Nanjing 210009, China)

Abstract: To promote the effective development of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, taking the water receiving area in Jiangsu as the research object, the current water-saving measures and effects are analyzed, and the research methods for water-saving potential are determined from three aspects of life, agriculture and industry. Based on the achievable water-saving target, the water-saving potential is calculated. According to the principle of “water-saving first and then water transfer”, the dispatching scale of the eastern route project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu is determined, and the economic, social and ecological benefits of water-saving are analyzed. The research shows that the water-saving potential of the water receiving area in Jiangsu is 1.59 billion m3in 2030, and the main water-saving potential is in agriculture. Compared with the conventional scheme, the total pumping volume can be reduced by 2.83 billion m3under the optimal water-saving scheduling scheme, which can reduce the energy consumption of the pumping station by 54.28 million kW·h, and the water-saving economic benefit reaches 2.76 billion yuan. The research results provide ideas for further optimizing the allocation of water resources in the water receiving areas of Jiangsu in the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and implementing the policy of water control in the new era.

Keywords: eastern route of South-to-North Water Diversion; water receiving area; water-saving potential; water transfer scale; water-saving benefits

Studyonco-evolutionofurbandroughtriskmanagementsystem/NIU Wenjuan1, LIU Minghui1, HE Li2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Fuhe Hydrological and Water Resources Monitoring Center, Fuzhou 344106, China)

Abstract: Urban drought risk management system is a complex dissipative structure system, which needs to be deeply studied by using systematic thinking. Based on the analysis of urban drought risk management system and using the B-Z response model for reference, a three-dimensional logistic co-evolution model of urban drought risk management system was established, and simulation scenarios were designed under two management modes of “crisis-response” and “risk normalization”, to reveal the dynamic evolution mechanism of urban drought risk management system supported by the interaction of three subsystems of preparedness, response and recovery and the synergy degree of government organizations. A case simulation analysis of the city of Ordos was conducted. The results are as follows. Under the “crisis-response” management mode, due to the neglect of the construction of urban drought risk preparedness capability, the urban drought risk preparedness capability is at a low level, so that it was difficult to improve the level of urban drought risk response capability even if the coordination level between subsystems were strengthened. This is because the response ability of urban drought risk depends on the construction of preparedness capability of drought risk. If the preparedness were insufficient, the response was insufficient, especially for long-term and large-scale drought, and even “emergency failure” was caused. Whether under the conditions of weak or strong organizational synergy, the drought recovery capability would increase. The stronger the synergy level is, the higher the drought recovery level is. However, when the drought preparedness capability and response capability are low, the urban losses caused by drought disasters are large. The higher the drought recovery level, the higher the cost of drought recovery. This is the result of the passivity and lag of the “crisis-response” management model. Under the “risk normalization” management mode, if the urban drought risk preparedness capability were very strong, the organization of strong coordination would promote the rapid growth of urban drought preparedness capability, response capability and recovery capability more effectively than the organization of weak coordination.Strong organization coordination will promote the interaction among the three subsystems more than weak organization coordination, so as to promote the balanced development among the three subsystems, which is more efficient for cities to deal with drought. Under the constraints of urban limited resources, there are mutual constraints among the three subsystems. While the organization of strong coordination would balance the growth of the three subsystems more effectively than the organization of weak coordination, it will limit the most advantageous preparedness capability to reach the level under weak coordination.

Keywords: urban drought; risk management system; order parameter; co-evolution equation; inter-organization synergy degree

Simulationstudyonthecompoundpolicyofwaterpollutionreductionofregionalkeyenterprises/ZHOU Shenbei1,2,3, WANG Xiaojing1, CHEN Songfeng4, DUAN Yeqing1(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;

2.Institute Research of Water Economy, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Global Environment and Natural Resources Institute, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA; 4.Jiangsu Water Resources Service Center, Nanjing 210029, China)

Abstract: Under the compound policy scenario of water pollution emission tax and rights trading market, the complex impact of tax rights policies on the tax rights allocation structure, output, profit and social welfare was simulated. On this basis, the optimal policy interval for promoting enterprise to innovate was proposed. The findings are as follows. Compared with emission taxes, corporate profits are more sensitive to the price of emission rights. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the optimal ratio of emission rights obtained from the market to excess emissions and profits. When the price difference between the emission tax rate and the emission right unit price is small, and the emission tax rate is slightly lower than the emission right price, a win-win situation between the economy and the environment can be achieved. The research conclusion shows that in order to maximize the efficiency of the composite policy, the situation that the emission tax and the emission right are both low or high should be avoided in the emission reduction policy.

Keywords: water pollution; tiered emission tax; water pollution emission right trading; emission right allocation structure; water pollution reduction strategy

EvaluationofcarbonemissionreductionefficiencyofChina’sgreenhydropowerunderthegoalofcarbonneutralization/SHEN Xinyi1, MA Jun1,2,3, LU Yuqin4(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;

2.Research Center of Water and Sustainable Development in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Coastal Development and Protection Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210098, China; 4.Yongtai County Minjiang North-South Water Diversion (Pingtan Water Diversion) Project Construction Headquarters, Fuzhou 350700, China)

Abstract: Taking 30 provinces in China as the research object, the super-efficient SBM model is used to calculate the carbon emission reduction efficiency of green hydropower from 2010 to 2019. The hierarchical cluster analysis is used to compare regional differences. And then, the within-group inequality, between-group inequality and their contribution to the overall inequality are calculated by using Theil index. Finally, the Malmquist index is used to decompose and analyze the efficiency. The results show that the development efficiency of green hydropower in China is the highest in the west, followed by the middle and the lowest in the east. The within-group inequality of efficiency is higher than the between-group inequality, and the development inequality of eastern provinces contributes the most to the overall inequality. Except for the scale efficiency, all the other efficiencies have increased. Therefore, it is necessary to rationally arrange hydropower development, attach importance to inter-provincial complementary cooperation and expand hydropower scale.

Keywords: green hydropower；carbon emission reduction efficiency; super-efficient SBM model; cluster analysis; Theil index; Malmquist index

Developmentstatusofseawaterdesalinationindustryanddynamicallycomparativeanalysisofitsproductioncost/HUAN Songhua1,2，LIU Xiuli1,2,3(1.Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3.Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

Abstract: In order to accurately grasp the development and production cost of seawater desalination, this paper first summarizes the development status of seawater desalination in the world, and then compares and analyzes the differences and trends of comparable cost components of multi effect distillation (MED) and reverse osmosis (RO) technologies in different scales and years. This paper evaluates the main influencing factors of desalination cost and their contribution to the cost under different technologies, and analyzes the specific measures and experience of typical cases in cost reduction. The results show that with the expansion of production scale and technological progress, the cost of seawater desalination is gradually reduced, and the cost of RO and med methods is reduced by 29.75% and 36.97% respectively from 1999 to 2017. In the cost of desalination, power cost accounts for nearly 40%, and fixed asset investment accounts for about 20%. In 100 000 m3/d seawater desalination, the desalination costs of RO and MED in China are 26.85% and 22.50% higher than those of foreign countries, respectively. The cost of desalination in China is about 1.28 times that of tap water and 1.20 times that of reclaimed water. In the future development, China can jointly promote the scientific investment and operation, technological progress and innovation, improve the cost structure, make up for the shortage of talents, government guidance and support, so as to reduce the cost of seawater desalination.

Keywords: seawater desalination; production cost; dynamically comparative analysis; RO; MED

Researchprogressandkeytechnologiesofecologicalcompensationforinter-basinwaterdiversion/XU Fengran1, RUAN Benqing1, ZHANG Chunling1, MU Xiangpeng1, GAO Huizhong2(1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China； 2. Water Resources Bureau of Zhangjiakou, Zhangjiakou 075000,China)

Abstract: This paper systematically reviews the research progress on ecological compensation for water diversion. Compared with the ecological compensation within the basin, the ecological compensation for inter-basin water diversion has different characteristics, including the impact of water diversion project on water source basin and water receiving regions, compensation relationship between upstream and downstream areas of water source basin and water receiving regions, and the loss in the lower reaches of the water source basin. The calculation methods for ecological compensation standard for cross basin water diversion evolve from the methods for inner basin compensation, including methods based on cost and opportunity loss, willingness to pay, resource value loss, and ecological footprint. The compensation volume was distributed according to the water quantity, benefits received by different regions, and their willingness to pay. Because of the complicity in the impact of water diversion on the water source basin and receiving regions, as well as the networked water diversion structure, key technologies for further studies were proposed. The first is the quantitative assessment of impact of water diversion on the water source basin and receiving regions. The second is the holistic estimation of cost and loss in the water source basin caused by water diversion. The third is the evaluation of economic, social, and ecological benefits brought to the water receiving regions. The fourth is construction of compensation relationships and calculation models for compensation standard, based on the estimation of cost, opportunity loss, and benefits. The last is the principle and calculation technology of compensation standard available for the complex compensation relationships under the networked water diversion structure.

Keywords: inter-basin water diversion; ecological compensation; compensation standard; compensation mechanism; research progress

DrivingfactorsoftheproductivewaterconsumptionevolutioninJiangsuProvincebasedonLMDI&VARmodels/LYU Suyu1, JIANG Na1, ZHANG Chenjun2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;

2.School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China)

Abstract: In order to promote rational water use and alleviate water shortage in Jiangsu Province, this paper selects water consumption data of three major industries in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2020, and uses LMDI model and VAR model to analyze the driving factors and long-term interaction relationship of the evolution of production water consumption in Jiangsu province from the perspective of dynamic and static combination. The results show that economic effect is the primary factor in promoting the increase of production water consumption in Jiangsu province, but the effect of water consumption on economic growth is relatively weak. Production intensity effect and industrial structure effect are respectively the primary and secondary inhibitory factors affecting the changes in production water consumption in Jiangsu province. In the short term, the production intensity effect can effectively restrain the growth of production water consumption, but in the long term, there is a rebound phenomenon. To effectively control the increase of production water consumption in Jiangsu province, it is necessary to weaken the strong correlation between economic growth and massive consumption of water resources, continuously promote the transformation of industrial structure in Jiangsu province to the “three-two-one” mode, cultivate the whole society’s water-saving consciousness, and promote the innovation of production and water-saving technology to improve water efficiency.

Keywords: production water consumption; driving factors; interactive relationship; LMDI model; VAR model; water resource；productive water consumption evolution

ResearchonevaluationandinfluencingfactorsofurbanfloodresilienceinJiangsuProvince/JI Juan1, CHEN Junfei1,2，3, ZHOU Ziyue1(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing 210098, China; 3.Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-Quality Development, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: Based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework, an urban flood resilience evaluation index system was constructed. The overall evaluation and influencing factors of the flood resilience of each city in Jiangsu Province were analyzed by the projection pursuit based on real-coded accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) and the grey correlation analysis method. The results show that the flood resilience index of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province is in descending order: Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nantong, Zhenjiang, Xuzhou, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Lianyungang, Huai’an, Yancheng and Suqian. The urban flood resistance in Jiangsu Province presents obvious polarization trend, that is, Southern Jiangsu is more resilient than Northern Jiangsu. Among them, indicators such as ability to reserve and allocate flood control materials, public disaster emergency awareness, per capita disposable income, tertiary industry share, per capita GDP, length of drainage network have a greater impact on urban flood resilience.

Keywords: urban flood resilience; pressure-state-response; projection pursuit model; urbanization; urban resilience

EvaluationandreferenceofColoradoRiverwaterresourcesallocationmodel/GE Yongping，ZHANG Hui(School of Law, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: At different historical stages, the Colorado River in the Americas has various water resources allocation models based on specific purposes. These models showed the dominant position of the private nature of water rights in the early social water resources distribution. The authorities used the empirical progressive legislative model, adopted the management mode of wide participation and consultation of stakeholders, practiced the principle of fair and rational utilization reflecting social equity, and promoted the rational utilization of Colorado River water resources. From the perspective of resolving problems, development and utilization and ecological protection, the experience and lessons of these processes and models can be used for reference to similar problems in China. The relevant authorities need to establish an overall planning and development model for the whole basin, establish and improve the legal system for the development and utilization of cross-border rivers, establish special joint management institutions with basin countries, and vigorously build water conservancy engineering facilities.

Keywords: Colorado River; water resources allocation model; cross border river; development and utilization

Researchonconsensusmodelofconflictdecisionbasedonfuzzypreference/ZHANG Jinmuzi, XU Haiyan, CHEN Lu(College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

Abstract: In order to describe the fuzziness of the decision-makers’ subjective judgments in conflict, the conflict decision consensus theory under simple preference is systematically expanded to construct a conflict decision consensus model under fuzzy preference based on the research framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. First, the trapezoidal fuzzy number in fuzzy theory is introduced into the preference setting of decision makers, and the preference information is further divided into the fuzzy consensus preference and fuzzy non-consensus preference. Then, in order to facilitate the calculation and analysis of stable solution of conflict decision consensus under fuzzy preference, the logical stability and matrix stability expression are defined. Finally, the conflict decision consensus model constructed is used to analyze the water resources conflict events in the Mekong River Basin, so as to obtain the optimal solution. The results show that the model can accurately and effectively solve the conflict decision consensus problem under fuzzy preference.

Keywords: water conflict; fuzzy preference; trapezoidal fuzzy number; graph model for conflict resolution; decision consensus; the Mekong River Basin

R&Dinvestmentandenterprisegrowth:theregulatoryroleofgovernmentsubsidies/XU Changxin, HUANG Xingting, CHEN Canjun(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Based on China’s micro data from 2012 to 2020, this article takes water resources enterprises as the research objects, and conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between R&D investments and enterprise growth. This article measures the growth of an enterprise with a comprehensive factor score. Moreover, in order to eliminate the endogenous problems and intertemporal effects of the R&D investments of enterprises, this article uses System Generalized Moment Estimation (SYS-GMM) to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between R&D investments and enterprise growth. In addition, this article also examines the role of government R&D subsidies in regulating this relationship. The results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between the growth of water resources enterprises and their R&D investments. Besides, government R&D subsidies can adjust the relationship between R&D investments and enterprise growth, and make the U-shaped curve slope of the relationship between the two more gentle.

Keywords: R&D investment; enterprise growth; government R&D subsidy; water resources enterprise

Studyonthesocialadaptabilityofresettlementinwaterdiversionproject/SHI Guoqing1,2, WU Bo1,2, SUN Zhonggen1,2, LIU Huicong1,2(1.School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Chinese Immigration Research Center, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: As an important stakeholder of large-scale cross-basin water diversion projects, migrants are prone to social discomfort in the process of moving from the original village and livelihood recovery after land is expropriated. Taking city H, the second section of project Y, as an example, we collected data based on semi-structured interviews and analyzed the economic life and social life difficulties of the immigrants of project Y. The study found that poor social adaptation leads to social and economic system risks such as declining economic level, social network destruction, difficulties in promoting projects, and ineffective local governance. Based on this, it is proposed to help immigrants to change their ideas and rebuild social networks, improve supervision related supporting system, and establish a mutual assistance mechanism, so as to promote the coordinated development of immigrants, owners and local governments, solve the social discomfort of immigrants, and promote the smooth implementation of water diversion projects.

Keywords: involuntary resettlement; social adaptability; social risk; water diversion

ControlmechanismofRedFlagCanalinthecontextofnormalizationofCOVID-19/LI Feng, WANG Chuqing(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Normalization of COVID-19 puts forward new requirements for the control mechanism of water conservancy scenic area. In order to further promote the effectiveness of the Red Flag Canal management and enhance the economic and social benefits, the tourism ecosphere system of Red Flag Canal, combined with the Ecosystem Model of Bronfenbrunner and the characteristics of Red Flag Canal, is summarized. It consists of the micro-system, middle-environment system, external assurance system, and macro-environment system of the ecosphere. Finally, for the control mechanism, it is suggested to construct a three-element coordinated organizational structure, improve the operation guarantee system and optimize the macro-environment system.

Keywords: normalization of COVID-19; Red Flag Canal; tourism ecosphere system; ecosystem model; control mechanism

StudyonbehaviorstrategiesofthegovernmentandsocialcapitalsideforinterestcoordinationinthewaterparkPPPprojects/WU Zhaodan1, 2, LI Tong1, WANG Shiqi1, FENG Yongqin1, WU Wenqing1(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China； 2.Jiangsu Research Center of Water Resources and Sustainable Development, Nanjing 210024, China)

Abstract: In order to promote the interest coordination between the government and social capital side in PPP projects of the water park, and ensure the smooth construction and operation of the project, the behavior strategy of the two sides is carried out for the first time, and the government roles of both the macro manager and the micro participant of the project are considered in the game analysis. Static game is adopted to explore the Nash equilibrium between the government and social capital, while the evolutionary game model is constructed to dynamically analyze their behavioral strategies with the simulation process. It is concluded that when the risk cost of the government taking the inactive strategy is greater than the cost of the active strategy, and the risk cost of the social capital taking the speculative strategy is greater than the cost of the effort strategy, (active, effort) is the equilibrium strategy in both static and dynamic games. Otherwise, aiming to realize the equilibrium (active, effort) strategy, it is necessary to ensure that the government’s social and ecological benefits should be much larger than the viability gap funding, and for the social capital side, the sum of additional benefits like brand effect, social influence and government rewards, and the viability gap funding, should be much larger than the benefits gained by switching to other business fields. Afterwards, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward, including improving the benefit distribution, risk sharing and policy guarantee mechanism of PPP projects in water park, establishing communication mechanism between the government and social capital side, and strengthening the supervision of PPP projects in water park.

Keywords: water park; PPP projects; interest coordination; evolutionary game